Regional Projection 5-11

[CharlieK]

Peaking at a good time. Win tourny, get in. No math required.

[Million$Mullet]

Just win the f’n tournament and be done with it

[GoneGolfin]

GoneGolfin/Brian,

In what worst case scenario do you see Louisiana as an at large? As in, what is the very worse we can do the rest of the way, including the Conference Tournament, to get an at large?

That is not really possible to fully answer due to circumstances outside of the control of the Cajuns' play. But I can offer a realistic scenario that would provide an opportunity for an at-large bid ... that would also have some on this board gnashing their teeth as they would come to the conclusion that the sky is falling and that it is tournament title or bust.

Let's say that the Cajuns lose 2/3 to Texas State, beat Nicholls, and take 2/3 vs. Little Rock. That would be finishing 4-3 with only one win in San Marcos.

Then we have the Cajuns beat Troy in the conference tournament opener ... and then beat Texas State twice ... only to lose to Georgia Southern in the title game.

Cajuns finish 7-4 (37-21 overall) ... with three more Q1 wins and three Q1 losses. So, 7-10 vs. Q1 (I am assuming for now that La Tech moves back into Q1) and 17-16 vs. the RPI Top 100. The Cajuns also have a road record of 15-9.

Using the present RPI values and holding everything else constant (including no teams shifting in their rankings and neutral OWP and OOWP contributions), the Cajuns would finish with a #39 RPI ranking. NC RPI and SOS also very good. While the Cajuns would likely be the #4 seed in the tournament in this scenario, they might finish with the third best conference record (tournament included). The Q1 record may be good enough and the Top 100 record would be solid. Road record also a strong plus ... solid finish in Last 15 games (10-5) ... with a tournament championship appearance. Two Q4 losses could be a problem, but it would depend on which resumes are being compared with the Cajuns. There are many teams with that many or more Q4 losses. But this is where the power conference teams are sometimes justified as well, as they tend to not have such losses (they tend to play fewer games against such teams).

In such a scenario, there is certainly the opportunity for an at-large bid.

Brian

[cajun4life]

We could always take 2/3 from Texas St, beat Nicholls and go 2/3 the last series.

Then make the finals and we should be in fairly easily.

[sportsfanatic21]

I say take 2 of 3 this weekend, stomp a mud hole in Nicholls and then sweep Little Rock.

[Big Buds]

That is not really possible to fully answer due to circumstances outside of the control of the Cajuns' play. But I can offer a realistic scenario that would provide an opportunity for an at-large bid ... that would also have some on this board gnashing their teeth as they would come to the conclusion that the sky is falling and that it is tournament title or bust.

Let's say that the Cajuns lose 2/3 to Texas State, beat Nicholls, and take 2/3 vs. Little Rock. That would be finishing 4-3 with only one win in San Marcos.

Then we have the Cajuns beat Troy in the conference tournament opener ... and then beat Texas State twice ... only to lose to Georgia Southern in the title game.

Cajuns finish 7-4 (37-21 overall) ... with three more Q1 wins and three Q1 losses. So, 7-10 vs. Q1 (I am assuming for now that La Tech moves back into Q1) and 17-16 vs. the RPI Top 100. The Cajuns also have a road record of 15-9.

Using the present RPI values and holding everything else constant (including no teams shifting in their rankings and neutral OWP and OOWP contributions), the Cajuns would finish with a #39 RPI ranking. NC RPI and SOS also very good. While the Cajuns would likely be the #4 seed in the tournament in this scenario, they might finish with the third best conference record (tournament included). The Q1 record may be good enough and the Top 100 record would be solid. Road record also a strong plus ... solid finish in Last 15 games (10-5) ... with a tournament championship appearance. Two Q4 losses could be a problem, but it would depend on which resumes are being compared with the Cajuns. There are many teams with that many or more Q4 losses. But this is where the power conference teams are sometimes justified as well, as they tend to not have such losses (the tend to play fewer games against such teams).

In such a scenario, there is certainly the opportunity for an at-large bid.

Brian

Thanks, Brian.

I appreciate the solid feedback…as usual.

[angeleast]

Thanks, Brian.

I appreciate the solid feedback…as usual.

Agreed.. its just sweet that we having this much interest and discussion into the issue

[JMV JustMyView]

Thanks, Brian.

I appreciate the solid feedback…as usual.

Mr. Brian is the real deal!

[Cajunsmike]

No, it is 50% your opponent's WP and 25% your opponent's opponents' WP.

One of the significant problems is that it is too heavily weighted on your opponent's WP, without regard to how strong their respective schedule is. The opposite of what you state above. But it is more than that.

A 34/33/33 breakdown also does not improve it much. It is more of a problem with how many levels the formula descends than the weights of the fixed three level formula. You will never arrive at a reasonable approximation of strength with three levels. The RPI is a pedestrian formula that never should have lasted as long as it has. As a mathematician and researcher in machine learning and artificial intelligence (statistical learning), I actually feel it is an embarrassment to the field of statistics.

Brian (1981 called and it wants its RPI formula back)

Thanks for the clarification. What is your recommendation as to what statistical formula should be used to truly compare teams.

[NOCajun]

D1 has us as the 63rd team in the field of 64 in College Station

Have to wonder now that we're under threat of being swept in San Marcos...

#cULture
#WeAreLouisiana
#GeauxCajuns
#BeatTexasState

[cajun_lannister]

Have to wonder now that we're under threat of being swept in San Marcos...

#cULture
#WeAreLouisiana
#GeauxCajuns
#BeatTexasState

Nobody left on your schedule to make up the ground. . Have to win the tournament