Where will Louisiana rank in Final College football polls?

[CajunVic]

That is one handsome SOB!!

You got the SOB correct . . .

[IberiaCajun]

I've looked at all of the bowl match ups. IF Louisiana wins the New Orleans bowl, they should end the season ranked between 10 & 12 in the final rankings.

14

[CajunVic]

14

I believe after looking at Grantvb’s analysis, we will be better than that. We did our part at least a couple others will also.

[Million$Mullet]

That is one handsome SOB!!

Mais

[Bandwagon King]

Please don't ban me. I have a method to the path that the Cajuns get trod to get to #10 in the AP Polls.

First, a few truths.
- Only 1 of the top 4 teams will finish with a win.
- The Cajuns have done everything they can.

Now the assumptions:
- Regardless of who wins the NC, none of the top 4 teams will be displaced out of the Top 10.
- Assume that every team in the top 15 team will beat the lower ranked team in their bowl game.

Now the theory/rationale:

As previously mentioned, MICH/ALA/CINC/GEOG will all stay in the top 10 no matter what happens. Their records and body of work are too solid to drop them completely. So figure 4 slots to them.

ND beats Ok St and goes 12-1. Baylor beats Ole Miss and goes 12-2. Ohio St. beats Utah and goes 11-2. All of these stay in the top 10 so figure 3 slots to them.

Mich St. beats Pitt and finished 11-2 and stays in the top 10 so figure 1 slot to them.

At this point we have slots 1-8 (don't be concerned with how the top 4 losers fall - they're staying in the top 10 anyway.).

Now let's look at the losers in the Top 10:

- Ole Miss at #8 loses to Baylor and finishes 10-3. Bear in mind, they didn't even play in the conference championship. Are you gonna only drop them 1 spot to #9? Or to #10 (I'll show you Oklahoma shortly). They will drop out of the top 10 with 3 losses and no conference championship appearance.

- Ok St. at #9 loses to N.D. They finish 11-3 now have lost (2) in a row. You plan on only bumping back 1 spot to #10? Not a chance, they're out.

Already mentioned MSU wins and moves up to #8. So now there are two spots.

- Utah at #11 loses to OSU and finishes 10-4. You can't reward someone who LOSES a bowl game with a move up. They are moving back.

- Pitt at #12 loses to MSU and finished 11-3. See the above comment on Utah about no reward for loss.

- BYU at #13 lost to an unranked team. Bye Felicia.

- #14 Oklahoma beats #15 Oregon and finished 11-2, moving up in front of conference champs, Pitt and utah (since they both lost), OK st (lost 2 in row) and Ole Miss (lost bowl w/ no CCG). They get into the top 10 (likely #9).

- Oregon at #15 loses to OU and finished 10-4 to move behind the Cajuns.

- Iowa at #17 loses to UK and finished 10-4 after losing two in row (Bowl and CCG). So they won't catch the Cajuns.

Now with 1 spot remaining in the top 10, you have:

10-3 Ole Miss (No CCG and Bowl loss)
11-3 Ok St (lost 2 in a row)
10-4 Utah (Bowl Loss moving backwards)
11-3 Pitt (Bowl Loss moving backwards)
10-3 BYU (lost to unranked team)
10-4 ORE (losers of last two)
10-4 Iowa (loser of last two)

13-1 Louisiana (Conference Champion and winner of last 13). Who's you best pick?

If you move any team back, you have to move a team behind them up. We already agreed that no losing team can be rewarded with a move forward. So how do you rationalize moving any of the losing teams up to fill the void by other losing teams? How do you move any 3 or four-loss teams ahead of a 13-1 team that is a conference champ?

You don't. (mic drop)

Appreciate your in depth analysis, but I have a different opinion on some of what you said. To the pollsters perception is reality. And the perception of UL right now is sky high. Higher than its ever been. A lot of that had to do with the way Billy left the program. it was obviously the exception rather than the rule & you can bet the class & dignity in which it occurred caught the media's eye especially in the northeast & midwest which houses most of the pollsters. So UL will be as highly rewarded as these guys can reward them. Plus you can bet what LSU did to Notre Dame along with the rumor of them "snubbing " Billy & the whole Brian Kelly thing has P.O.d a lot of the wrong people in the powerful media markets. So if the enemy of my enemy is my friend, then that will also swing pollsters just to put a thumb in the eye of the UBR folks.

I don't think it matters who loses out of OU & Oregon. Right now they are perceived as orphans in Big time football. So they are playing the orphan bowl. I think whoever loses that one will drop below UL. Unless Pitt & MSU is a super tight game that finishes with an overtime loser, one of those two teams will fall below UL. I'd almost rather see Pitt win than MSU at this point big because that would give MSU three losses in their last five games with a monster loss to OSU & barely beating Penn St. Ohio State needs to beat Utah & they will definitely drop below us. And Notre Dame needs to beat OSU. If Ole miss were to beat Baylor along with an OSU loss & an OU loss, it would make their whole conference look bad, especially if Ohio State blasts Utah. So it's possible the pollsters already having a reason to help UL will just look at UL's record of 13 straight wins & jump all of those teams. I don't think it really matters at this point who wins the Iowa Kentucky match up. Although Kentucky winning would certainly keep anyone from leap frogging us.

So UL fans should definitely be pulling for Notre Dame to beat OSU big time, OSU to wipe the field with Utah, & I think Ole miss to whip Baylor along with an ugly OU Oregon game with a lot of turnovers & bad play which is possible.

I will also add. I know a lot of people would like to see Cincinnati loose so UL could have the longest winning streak. But for the sake of G-5 schools everywhere, I'm pulling for Cincinnati to win the whole thing & put the breaks on the whole SEC is the only football conference in America crapola. I also think this would help vault a 13-1 UL team POSSIBLY higher than number 10. Let us not forget that in the polls perception is reality & Cinncy winning would boost the perception of a 13-1 UL team even higher.

[RaginDave]

... Plus you can bet what LSU did to Notre Dame along with the rumor of them "snubbing " Billy & the whole Brian Kelly thing has P.O.d a lot of the wrong people in the powerful media markets. So if the enemy of my enemy is my friend, then that will also swing pollsters...

I can’t. I really can’t. So Kyle is saying that LSU handling of their coaching search is going to effect where the Cajuns end up being ranked.

This post is 30-45 seconds of my life I can’t get back.

Look I don’t know where the Cajuns will end up and I truly don’t care. This has been a magical season and anywhere in the top 20 will be great. But to think Bryan Kelly, LSU or anything that happens in Baton Rouge will effect our ranking is ludicrous.

[CharlieK]

Appreciate your in depth analysis, but I have a different opinion on some of what you said. To the pollsters perception is reality. And the perception of UL right now is sky high. Higher than its ever been. A lot of that had to do with the way Billy left the program. it was obviously the exception rather than the rule & you can bet the class & dignity in which it occurred caught the media's eye especially in the northeast & midwest which houses most of the pollsters. So UL will be as highly rewarded as these guys can reward them. Plus you can bet what LSU did to Notre Dame along with the rumor of them "snubbing " Billy & the whole Brian Kelly thing has P.O.d a lot of the wrong people in the powerful media markets. So if the enemy of my enemy is my friend, then that will also swing pollsters just to put a thumb in the eye of the UBR folks.

I don't think it matters who loses out of OU & Oregon. Right now they are perceived as orphans in Big time football. So they are playing the orphan bowl. I think whoever loses that one will drop below UL. Unless Pitt & MSU is a super tight game that finishes with an overtime loser, one of those two teams will fall below UL. I'd almost rather see Pitt win than MSU at this point big because that would give MSU three losses in their last five games with a monster loss to OSU & barely beating Penn St. Ohio State needs to beat Utah & they will definitely drop below us. And Notre Dame needs to beat OSU. If Ole miss were to beat Baylor along with an OSU loss & an OU loss, it would make their whole conference look bad, especially if Ohio State blasts Utah. So it's possible the pollsters already having a reason to help UL will just look at UL's record of 13 straight wins & jump all of those teams. I don't think it really matters at this point who wins the Iowa Kentucky match up. Although Kentucky winning would certainly keep anyone from leap frogging us.

So UL fans should definitely be pulling for Notre Dame to beat OSU big time, OSU to wipe the field with Utah, & I think Ole miss to whip Baylor along with an ugly OU Oregon game with a lot of turnovers & bad play which is possible.

I will also add. I know a lot of people would like to see Cincinnati loose so UL could have the longest winning streak. But for the sake of G-5 schools everywhere, I'm pulling for Cincinnati to win the whole thing & put the breaks on the whole SEC is the only football conference in America crapola. I also think this would help vault a 13-1 UL team POSSIBLY higher than number 10. Let us not forget that in the polls perception is reality & Cinncy winning would boost the perception of a 13-1 UL team even higher.

You truly have a dizzying intellect.

[CajunEXPRESS]

You truly have a dizzying intellect.

His mentor sleeping with the fish for centuries

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicc...B2_Machiavelli

[CajunVic]

Appreciate your in depth analysis, but I have a different opinion on some of what you said. To the pollsters perception is reality. And the perception of UL right now is sky high. Higher than its ever been. A lot of that had to do with the way Billy left the program. it was obviously the exception rather than the rule & you can bet the class & dignity in which it occurred caught the media's eye especially in the northeast & midwest which houses most of the pollsters. So UL will be as highly rewarded as these guys can reward them. Plus you can bet what LSU did to Notre Dame along with the rumor of them "snubbing " Billy & the whole Brian Kelly thing has P.O.d a lot of the wrong people in the powerful media markets. So if the enemy of my enemy is my friend, then that will also swing pollsters just to put a thumb in the eye of the UBR folks.

I don't think it matters who loses out of OU & Oregon. Right now they are perceived as orphans in Big time football. So they are playing the orphan bowl. I think whoever loses that one will drop below UL. Unless Pitt & MSU is a super tight game that finishes with an overtime loser, one of those two teams will fall below UL. I'd almost rather see Pitt win than MSU at this point big because that would give MSU three losses in their last five games with a monster loss to OSU & barely beating Penn St. Ohio State needs to beat Utah & they will definitely drop below us. And Notre Dame needs to beat OSU. If Ole miss were to beat Baylor along with an OSU loss & an OU loss, it would make their whole conference look bad, especially if Ohio State blasts Utah. So it's possible the pollsters already having a reason to help UL will just look at UL's record of 13 straight wins & jump all of those teams. I don't think it really matters at this point who wins the Iowa Kentucky match up. Although Kentucky winning would certainly keep anyone from leap frogging us.

So UL fans should definitely be pulling for Notre Dame to beat OSU big time, OSU to wipe the field with Utah, & I think Ole miss to whip Baylor along with an ugly OU Oregon game with a lot of turnovers & bad play which is possible.

I will also add. I know a lot of people would like to see Cincinnati loose so UL could have the longest winning streak. But for the sake of G-5 schools everywhere, I'm pulling for Cincinnati to win the whole thing & put the breaks on the whole SEC is the only football conference in America crapola. I also think this would help vault a 13-1 UL team POSSIBLY higher than number 10. Let us not forget that in the polls perception is reality & Cinncy winning would boost the perception of a 13-1 UL team even higher.

When you post, I know a lot less . . .

[zephyr]

I can’t. I really can’t. So Kyle is saying that LSU handling of their coaching search is going to effect where the Cajuns end up being ranked.

This post is 30-45 seconds of my life I can’t get back.

Look I don’t know where the Cajuns will end up and I truly don’t care. This has been a magical season and anywhere in the top 20 will be great. But to think Bryan Kelly, LSU or anything that happens in Baton Rouge will effect our ranking is ludicrous.

Agreed. I'm not thinking you're going to see a ton of movement in the final rankings but does it really matter?

[Grantvb]

BWK, my analysis is based purely on common sense (JINX!!!). I would only see your proposal going through with divine intervention. Utah had a great year, beating ASU and Oregon (twice) while ranked. HOWEVER, they are 10-3 from a 4th place P-5 conference. Utah won't beat OSU. Pitt had a good, but lost to a subpar Miami, a non P-5 WMU and finished 1st in a very weak COASTAL division of ACC. They won't beat MSU. In my opinion, the Big TEN is the 2nd best conference. I fail to see how Baylor will lose to Ole Miss. Baylor beat 3 ranked teams this year (avenging their loss to Ok St.) and lost a very close game to TCU. Ole Miss plays in arguably the toughest division in College football with Auburn, A&M, A&M-BR, Bama and Ark. The egg bowl tends to go back and forth as well, but they navigated the waters fairly well. The struggled to win against TN and won against ARK only because the Razorbacks went for 2 on the last play of the game but came up short instead of going for the tie. Ole Miss is gonna come up short against Baylor. As I mentioned, this clears the rif-raff from the Top 10. 2 spots available. 1 goes to Oklahoma (national perspective). The other would have to go to Louisiana unless you reward a losing team. The only prejudice I can see on this is "..we CANNOT have (2) P-5's finish in the TOP 10....We gave out 1 spot - that's enough...Protect the MONOPOLY!!"

[Grantvb]

Agreed. I'm not thinking you're going to see a ton of movement in the final rankings but does it really matter?

Zeph, in the overall scheme of promoting the brand and recruiting...I believe it does. BWK's comment about preception does hold merit. We need to start gaining the perception of a major G-5 like Cincy, like UCF, like Boise for so many years...and maintain it.

One thing i noticed about Cincinnati regarding their appeal to larger conferences, they have a solid basketball program (though COVID hurt them). This along with continued football success and being in a large TV market will likely help when the BIG 10 expands to 16.

[RaginDave]

Zeph, in the overall scheme of promoting the brand and recruiting...I believe it does. BWK's comment about preception does hold merit. We need to start gaining the perception of a major G-5 like Cincy, like UCF, like Boise for so many years...and maintain it.

One thing i noticed about Cincinnati regarding their appeal to larger conferences, they have a solid basketball program (though COVID hurt them). This along with continued football success and being in a large TV market will likely help when the BIG 10 expands to 16.

I don't disagree that perception doesn't hold merit, in fact on the contrary, that I agree with BWQ on. My issue is that the perception of the LSU head coaching search will effect our ranking is insanity.

[CajunVic]

Zeph, in the overall scheme of promoting the brand and recruiting...I believe it does. BWK's comment about preception does hold merit. We need to start gaining the perception of a major G-5 like Cincy, like UCF, like Boise for so many years...and maintain it.

One thing i noticed about Cincinnati regarding their appeal to larger conferences, they have a solid basketball program (though COVID hurt them). This along with continued football success and being in a large TV market will likely help when the BIG 10 expands to 16.

I wish you would not have put the basketball thingy in this, it leaves us with no hope . . .

[zephyr]

Zeph, in the overall scheme of promoting the brand and recruiting...I believe it does. BWK's comment about preception does hold merit. We need to start gaining the perception of a major G-5 like Cincy, like UCF, like Boise for so many years...and maintain it.

One thing i noticed about Cincinnati regarding their appeal to larger conferences, they have a solid basketball program (though COVID hurt them). This along with continued football success and being in a large TV market will likely help when the BIG 10 expands to 16.

Perception is the one thing we have going for us. The perception of our program has changed over the past 3 years but what I'm saying is I really don't think many people put much interest into the "final" rankings. Once the season is over and a champion is crowned I think the average fan doesn't even look at these.