What you asked for is exactly what I did. We should not be in front of any 1 or 2 loss P 5, nor should we be in front of a 13-1 Cincinnati. There are 9 P 5 teams with 2 or fewer losses, and Cincinnati's SOS was much better than ours. That means that 11th is our best case scenario and that is where I would put us.
I sincerely doubt that the voters in either poll agree with me, so I expect us to be at best 13 and at worst 18.