Football Staff specULation

[Turbine]

According to Turbine it’s coming full circle. Bilichick has SLI roots

Yeah baby!

Louisiana went undefeated the year Bill Belichick's dad coached at Louisiana.

Full circle.

[JamesTheJeweler]

Get Tony Hull for running backs coach / Co-OC
Jorge Munoz back as passing game coordinator/QB coach

I like this! Hearing this news would get me a nice, quarter sized pee spot on my pants

[CajunFun]

This right here. Maybe slide the percentages back and forth a little as talent dictates, but the 30,000 ft view is big boy football, running game dominant with a nasty defense.

There is actually a theory about this from my field of ecology, called the Ideal Free Distribution.

Consumers will, without thinking about it, distribute themselves according to resources. Take 10 dogs, put 30% of the food at one end of the room, 70% at the other, they will distribute themselves 3 & 7.

I'm not sure why yet, but I think the same thing may be true of strategy. You should distribute plays to match their success ratios. Now, the critical question is 'How many yards do you want/need?' But once you determine that, you should be able to calculate how often each play succeeds. If it's 60% run success, 50% pass success, you should probably pick them in that ratio, 6:5.

Probably.

But the catch is, the less you call particular kind of play, the more effective it will become. And some plays don't have to succeed, because they can create success with other plays: When you throw the occasional long ball, even if it fails, it spreads out the passing defense and increases the success of the run and the short pass.

It's something we need a game theorist to model... or maybe run a Monte Carlo simulation.

Yes, I'm showing off, but I always loved that name, 'Monte Carlo simulation.' It just means that, rather than calculate out the probabilities, you let a computer (or even real people) run the games over and over to see the outcomes...

[CharlieK]

There is actually a theory about this from my field of ecology, called the Ideal Free Distribution.

Consumers will, without thinking about it, distribute themselves according to resources. Take 10 dogs, put 30% of the food at one end of the room, 70% at the other, they will distribute themselves 3 & 7.

I'm not sure why yet, but I think the same thing may be true of strategy. You should distribute plays to match their success ratios. Now, the critical question is 'How many yards do you want/need?' But once you determine that, you should be able to calculate how often each play succeeds. If it's 60% run success, 50% pass success, you should probably pick them in that ratio, 6:5.

Probably.

But the catch is, the less you call particular kind of play, the more effective it will become. And some plays don't have to succeed, because they can create success with other plays: When you throw the occasional long ball, even if it fails, it spreads out the passing defense and increases the success of the run and the short pass.

It's something we need a game theorist to model... or maybe run a Monte Carlo simulation.

Yes, I'm showing off, but I always loved that name, 'Monte Carlo simulation.' It just means that, rather than calculate out the probabilities, you let a computer (or even real people) run the games over and over to see the outcomes...

Dude I love this. Correlation is not causation, it takes a deeper analysis than has traditionally been applied to football.

[cajun1300]

Dude I love this. Correlation is not causation, it takes a deeper analysis than has traditionally been applied to football.

Check out the big brain on Joe!

[CharlieK]

There is actually a theory about this from my field of ecology, called the Ideal Free Distribution.

Consumers will, without thinking about it, distribute themselves according to resources. Take 10 dogs, put 30% of the food at one end of the room, 70% at the other, they will distribute themselves 3 & 7.

I'm not sure why yet, but I think the same thing may be true of strategy. You should distribute plays to match their success ratios. Now, the critical question is 'How many yards do you want/need?' But once you determine that, you should be able to calculate how often each play succeeds. If it's 60% run success, 50% pass success, you should probably pick them in that ratio, 6:5.

Probably.

But the catch is, the less you call particular kind of play, the more effective it will become. And some plays don't have to succeed, because they can create success with other plays: When you throw the occasional long ball, even if it fails, it spreads out the passing defense and increases the success of the run and the short pass.

It's something we need a game theorist to model... or maybe run a Monte Carlo simulation.

Yes, I'm showing off, but I always loved that name, 'Monte Carlo simulation.' It just means that, rather than calculate out the probabilities, you let a computer (or even real people) run the games over and over to see the outcomes...

I'm sure we all noticed that the Cajuns tended to pull away or at least pull it out by the end of the game. I'm sure there are a lot of reasons, but I wonder how much had to do with how analysis driven Napier was. If you consistently make the percentage call, you may look silly at times to those without the data but in the long run (hopefully before the 4th quarter ends) you end up being more right than wrong and more successful than not.

[Cajun90]

I'm sure we all noticed that the Cajuns tended to pull away or at least pull it out by the end of the game. I'm sure there are a lot of reasons, but I wonder how much had to do with how analysis driven Napier was. If you consistently make the percentage call, you may look silly at times to those without the data but in the long run (hopefully before the 4th quarter ends) you end up being more right than wrong and more successful than not.

Billy ball??? Just not the Beane.....

[Turbine]

I'm sure we all noticed that the Cajuns tended to pull away or at least pull it out by the end of the game. I'm sure there are a lot of reasons, but I wonder how much had to do with how analysis driven Napier was. If you consistently make the percentage call, you may look silly at times to those without the data but in the long run (hopefully before the 4th quarter ends) you end up being more right than wrong and more successful than not.

No scared MONEY BALL

[CajunVic]

No scared MONEY BALL

There is a old saying when one is scared to pull the trigger . . . You got the power but you scared . . . He ain’t scared .. .

[Turbine]

There is a old saying when one is scared to pull the trigger . . . You got the power but you scared . . . He ain’t scared .. .

Scared money has no defense.

[mxpxfr690]

Maybe Des will go the NFL route to get a coordinator? Just a thought. Who are some good up and coming defensive guys in the NFL?

[covcaj]

Maybe Des will go the NFL route to get a coordinator? Just a thought. Who are some good up and coming defensive guys in the NFL?

I could be wrong, but I doubt we could touch the lowest paid position coach (maybe special teams, maybe) in the NFL.