It's Japan. Just like China in 2008, the judges are biased towards the home team. Anything they can do to put the Japanese/Chinese over - they will.
Gold Medal Count since 2000
2000 Games (Sydney) - USA 37 China 28 (3rd)
2004 Games (Athens) - USA 36 China 32 (2nd)
2008 Games (BEIJING) - China 48 USA 36
2012 Games (London) - USA 46 China 38 (3rd)
2016 Games (Rio) - USA 46 China 26 (3rd)
2021 Games (Tokyo) - China 24 USA 20 *Unfinished
See a pattern? Guess who is in 3rd place with 17? Japan. FYI We lead total medal count 59 to 51 (China). They could care less about silver and bronze. They want first - but for a totally different reason.