Here is my thought, if and only if you go with a 12 team model, the only way an Independent gets in is if they are one of the at large bids. If NMSU, Liberty, BYU, ND, Army, UCONN and UMass are their to play in the playoffs then and want to be an independent let them try. The only team that will be there is ND. Liberty will join a conference, whether it is the SBC, AAC, CUSA or MAC they will figure it out. BYU will attempt to do it as an independent, ND will as well or join the ACC and UCONN and UMASS will drop down, Army will probably join the AAC or stay an independent, but they only qualify if they are one of the at large teams, that goes for all of the independents whether it is a 4, 8, 12 or 16 team playoff.
I would love for someone to allow Turbine and I to debate this on either radio or a podcast anytime. I have spent years on this and think the reality is if you are an independent you should be behind all P5 conference champions/automatic bids and any single or even multiple G5 teams.
I am so damn sick of hearing about how we would be better off as an independent. Their is no universe where this is any option. Their is never a time where the Independent route is better than the SBC and I am not thrilled being in the SBC.
Its positive going to 12. We've got a shot as do all G5 schools, whereas now we don't. It raises some questions about what else could change as a result of expanding CFP to 12 teams? Maybe less student athlete Opt Outs? Maybe less bowl games and conference bowl tie in changes? Strength of football in G5 conferences seems to take on more weight than before.
The G5 as a whole has gotten way better over the past 5 years.... the top tier G5 schools are better than half the P5 schools if not more....the PAC12 is terrible and not really relevant any more... the Big 12 besides Oklahoma, ok State, Iowa state, and Texas is a conference that has dropped off since losing Nebraska, Colorado, Missouri, and A&M. The only really relevant Acc team is Clemson and then maybe Miami. Thought last year really helped the G5 expose most of the P5 as what they are, a bunch of average teams with one maybe 2 really good teams in each conference. The only conference that is crazy good top to bottom is the SEC...I think this year we will see many more upset wins by G5 over P5.
So the 12 team expansion proposal has the green light from the committee and now moves to the Board of managers next Tuesday. Looking closer at the proposal it says the top 4 conference champs get a bye. This is fascinating.
Theoretically, a G5 school could get a bye, whether it be us or Cincinnati. Any high rank G5 could receive a bye if things line up right.
For example:
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Ohio State
4. Georgia
5. Florida
6. Notre Dame
7. Wisconsin
8. Texas A&M
9. Miami
10. Louisiana
11. Texas
12. Cincinnati
13. Stanford
14. Oklahoma
15. BYU
Now the expansion won't be implemented this year but hypothetical in this scenario Alabama, Clemson and Ohio State would all receive byes as the usual would make the playoff. Louisiana would be in the 4th spot having beaten Texas and Texas and Louisiana both running the table. Also the SBC having another good year against the big 12 and the Pac 12 down again means they get left out altogether
5 seed Georgia vs 12 seed Cincinnati*
6 seed Florida vs 11 seed Texas*
7 seed Notre Dame vs 10 seed Miami
8 seed Wisconsin vs 9 Texas A&M
Just something cool to think about
* not sure if Texas and Cincinnati would get a higher seed being Conference champs
I don't want to black ball Liberty and BYU as both teams are pretty good and were ranked last year. One took Coastal Carolina to the limit, the other beat em. While I think they'd need to be conferenced, forcing them to at the point of locking them out - not a fan. As for Notre Dame, they play independent so that they have total control to schedule most P-5 power house match-ups.
The College Football Playoff committee has always tossed a bone to Group of Five schools. A bid into a New Year's Six Bowl meant at least the top G5 team in the country could get significant bowl exposure. But CFP expansion talk means that bone is no longer a metatarsal, but a femur.
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