NCAA SB Final: Louisiana 5, LSU 8

[JMV JustMyView]

While we certainly need to play high caliber teams don't buy into this "we need P5 teams for RPI". It absolutely helps but historically our RPI has been hurt for other reasons. P5 teams have an advantage because even the bottom end of the conference usually does okay OOC and have the rest of the conference to lift them up. Biggest thing we can do is limit exposure to the really bad W/L teams OOC. Playing a three game series against an historically bad team in a historically bad conference is way worse than not playing a game against the LSU's of the world.

You need P5 teams for rpi if you want to build a schedule to try and host a regional.

[Balanced_view]

You need P5 teams for rpi if you want to build a schedule to try and host a regional.

you guys are throwing out the focus of my entire post( multi post now) and locking in on the Rpi, which the post was not about. Its all good.

[JMV JustMyView]

you guys are throwing out the focus of my entire post( multi post now) and locking in on the Rpi, which the post was not about. Its all good.

I didn't see where any of us were speaking to you about rpi?

[RaginDave]

You need P5 teams for rpi if you want to build a schedule to try and host a regional.

I don't think this is 100% true, you definitely need some P5 teams, but we should be working with schools like James Madison, Liberty, Wichita State, UCF, Western Kentucky, Kennesaw State and others that are traditionally Top 50 RPI teams that should want to play against us.

I know it takes 2 to tango, but you would think these teams would like an RPI boost vs us and we could use the same, rather than playing Memphis or Buffalo or teams that completely destroy your RPI.

I know we took a hit with Houston, who traditionally is pretty good and had a season ending RPI of 130. But their are Top 50-75 RPI teams that we need to be working with that are not P5 teams.

[Turbine]

You need P5 teams for rpi if you want to build a schedule to try and host a regional.

This is absolutely not true unless you want to do brain dead scheduling. Then yes P5s will support you more often than not.

What is unacceptable is actually doing brain dead scheduling. Including a St. Peters, or a North Alabama, those types are a no no. If you go that route, then yeah, you need P5s to counter balence those mistakes.

What you would really need to do, is find programs that win and consistently win.

jmo

[Mark Hemphill]

does this apply within a certain period of time? I generally agree with you about pitching but to me it has limits, dont forget what my original point was.

for instance, Summer is dominant, but she faced lsu at least 20 innings this season. who has the advantage the higher the innings go, hitters or pitcher? Another, Lamb had a shutout after 7 innings, but hitters started making better contact late in the game, and continued to get more comfortable into first 3 innings of 2nd game. those are just example from our team with lsu this year, but im sure you can find the same type of thing all across the college softball level.

Let's compare apples to apples. Lamb was tired. She had just pitched 7 innings and was trying to give it a go with 45 minutes rest on a pretty warm day. The odds were high that she was going to give up hits in the 2nd game. In regards to Summer, she is a great pitcher and I don't know anything and I am not trying to start a rumor so please don't quote me here as me saying I know something because I don't but could there have possibly been some undisclosed underlying issue health wise that might have been in play with her and she tried to work through it? Now, to answer your question, if the pitcher is truly dominant pitcher and remains healthy for each contest, the advantage is always with the pitcher in my opinion no matter how many times a team faces said pitcher. You have to remember that just like hitters, elite pitchers are constantly working to improve their game. They are working on different spins, throwing from different angles, different speeds, etc. The hitter is always at the disadvantage because he/she is reacting to what the pitcher is throwing. I have been fortunate to talk at length with some of the best hitting instructors working today. Every one of them has said that the old adage "good pitching beats good hitting" is true but they placed the caveat 99% of the time on that statement because there is that elite 1% of hitters who will have more successes than failures against a dominant pitcher. The point of my original post was that as a team, at least at the college level in softball, you will not have enough good hitters to counter a truly dominant pitcher no matter how many times you see them in a season. You might be able to catch a dominant pitcher when they are having an off night or when they are trying to pitch through some type of issue like a muscle strain or a blister and then you can have multiple hitters have success against them (see above about Summer). There just aren't that many pitchers in the game right now like a Montana Fouts who can totally control a game from the circle. She makes up for the weaknesses in the lower part of Alabama's lineup and she dominates the weaknesses of the opposing teams bats. This is why every coach gladly offers up one of those ultra valuable and precious 12 athletic scholarships to a truly dominant pitcher.

[bbhstiger5]

Let's compare apples to apples. Lamb was tired. She had just pitched 7 innings and was trying to give it a go with 45 minutes rest on a pretty warm day. The odds were high that she was going to give up hits in the 2nd game. In regards to Summer, she is a great pitcher and I don't know anything and I am not trying to start a rumor so please don't quote me here as me saying I know something because I don't but could there have possibly been some undisclosed underlying issue health wise that might have been in play with her and she tried to work through it? Now, to answer your question, if the pitcher is truly dominant pitcher and remains healthy for each contest, the advantage is always with the pitcher in my opinion no matter how many times a team faces said pitcher. You have to remember that just like hitters, elite pitchers are constantly working to improve their game. They are working on different spins, throwing from different angles, different speeds, etc. The hitter is always at the disadvantage because he/she is reacting to what the pitcher is throwing. I have been fortunate to talk at length with some of the best hitting instructors working today. Every one of them has said that the old adage "good pitching beats good hitting" is true but they placed the caveat 99% of the time on that statement because there is that elite 1% of hitters who will have more successes than failures against a dominant pitcher. The point of my original post was that as a team, at least at the college level in softball, you will not have enough good hitters to counter a truly dominant pitcher no matter how many times you see them in a season. You might be able to catch a dominant pitcher when they are having an off night or when they are trying to pitch through some type of issue like a muscle strain or a blister and then you can have multiple hitters have success against them (see above about Summer). There just aren't that many pitchers in the game right now like a Montana Fouts who can totally control a game from the circle. She makes up for the weaknesses in the lower part of Alabama's lineup and she dominates the weaknesses of the opposing teams bats. This is why every coach gladly offers up one of those ultra valuable and precious 12 athletic scholarships to a truly dominant pitcher.

Agreed. Imagine if we had an extra Kandra Lamb or Ellyson to pull from the pen. Would Sundays results have changed? I cant wait to see the quality pitchers we have coming in thrown into the mix with Lamb next year. (she was almost unhittable for majority of the regional)

[GoneGolfin]

You need P5 teams for rpi if you want to build a schedule to try and host a regional.

Not any more than what the Cajuns scheduled this year. And it is not p5 teams you need ... it is Top 25 RPI teams you need. And you do not need them for RPI purposes ... you need them for your selection committee resume. There are other ways to build your RPI. Meanwhile, there are certainly P5 teams that you want to avoid (one of the tenets of my smart scheduling process).

While I have not done an exhaustive analysis, there are some obvious reasons why the Cajuns did not finish with a Top 16 RPI and a chance to host (15 of the 16 hosts were in the RPI Top 16 ... with the #17 RPI team hosting). And the lack of scheduling top opponents was not one of them.

- The Cajuns needed to win more RPI Top 25 games. 3-8 will not cut it. We are not Texas. While going 5-6 would have certainly helped the Cajuns' RPI, it is more about not proving that you are on the level with your hosting peers.

- The Cajuns should not be scheduling the likes of Lamar. 8-43 (.1569). That hurt.
- You can do a lot better than Buffalo.
- I do not fault anyone for Memphis. They fell off the face of the earth. But they really hurt.
- Houston as well ... they are usually good. While they had an RPI ranking of 130, there are several teams in the 200's that would have been more RPI friendly. Including Prairie View A&M.
- I also do not fault the scheduling of Baylor, which is typically a good team to schedule. But this is an example of a P5 team you want to avoid. Teams that lose a lot of games but play difficult schedules ... and have a decent chance at beating you (which they did).

The bottom line is that the Cajuns Non-Conference SOS was weak (#84) and the above is why. Some of the above is correctable ... some is unfortunate luck.

Some teams that should be considered for future NC schedules ...
- Stephen F. Austin ... good team for four years running
- Central Arkansas ... turning the corner? Solid last couple of years
- South Dakota State ... gaudy records, but beatable
- Boston U ... traditionally strong and looking to travel early in the year
- Saint Francis ... strong record, more often than not. Early travel team.
- Miami Ohio and Ball State ... traditionally strong records. Early travel teams.
- Monmouth (rinse, repeat)
- There are some good Ivy League teams to schedule, once they decide to play
- If you can forecast the SWAC winner (or come close), this is typically a good opponent

These are just some examples. Notice that I am not targeting Top 50 or even Top 75 teams, though some of these teams are there. You want some of these ... but the above is where the value is from the RPI perspective. Good for your SOS (regardless of their RPI rank), with an increased probability of winning.

That said, the above is just one of my four core scheduling principles.

Interestingly enough, I received a text from Coach Glasco this morning. Looks like he is ready to get right back to work. We will be discussing in the next few days.

Brian

[JMV JustMyView]

Not any more than what the Cajuns scheduled this year. And it is not p5 teams you need ... it is Top 25 RPI teams you need. And you do not need them for RPI purposes ... you need them for your selection committee resume. There are other ways to build your RPI. Meanwhile, there are certainly P5 teams that you want to avoid (one of the tenets of my smart scheduling process).

While I have not done an exhaustive analysis, there are some obvious reasons why the Cajuns did not finish with a Top 16 RPI and a chance to host (15 of the 16 hosts were in the RPI Top 16 ... with the #17 RPI team hosting). And the lack of scheduling top opponents was not one of them.

- The Cajuns needed to win more RPI Top 25 games. 3-8 will not cut it. We are not Texas. While going 5-6 would have certainly helped the Cajuns' RPI, it is more about not proving that you are on the level with your hosting peers.

- The Cajuns should not be scheduling the likes of Lamar. 8-43 (.1569). That hurt.
- You can do a lot better than Buffalo.
- I do not fault anyone for Memphis. They fell off the face of the earth. But they really hurt.
- Houston as well ... they are usually good. While they had an RPI ranking of 130, there are several teams in the 200's that would have been more RPI friendly. Including Prairie View A&M.
- I also do not fault the scheduling of Baylor, which is typically a good team to schedule. But this is an example of a P5 team you want to avoid. Teams that lose a lot of games but play difficult schedules ... and have a decent chance at beating you (which they did).

The bottom line is that the Cajuns Non-Conference SOS was weak (#84) and the above is why. Some of the above is correctable ... some is unfortunate luck.

Some teams that should be considered for future NC schedules ...
- Stephen F. Austin ... good team for four years running
- Central Arkansas ... turning the corner? Solid last couple of years
- South Dakota State ... gaudy records, but beatable
- Boston U ... traditionally strong and looking to travel early in the year
- Saint Francis ... strong record, more often than not. Early travel team.
- Miami Ohio and Ball State ... traditionally strong records. Early travel teams.
- Monmouth (rinse, repeat)
- There are some good Ivy League teams to schedule, once they decide to play

These are just some examples. Notice that I am not targeting Top 50 -> 100 teams. You want some of these ... but the above is where the value is from the RPI perspective. Good for your SOS (regardless of their RPI rank), with an increased probability of winning.

That said, the above is just one of my four core scheduling principles.

Interestingly enough, I received a text from Coach Glasco this morning. Looks like he is ready to get right back to work. We will be discussing in the next few days.

Brian

Brian, how do you over come the issues when teams don't want to play you? Damn I thought he was texting you to sign your daughter up to become a Cajun. Yes Glasco was already thinking about next season after the final out was made.

[GoneGolfin]

Brian, how do you over come the issues when teams don't want to play you? Damn I thought he was texting you to sign your daughter up to become a Cajun. Yes Glasco was already thinking abkut next season after the final out was made.

Teams not wanting to play the Cajuns is not the problem. As I stated, the Cajuns have enough Top 25/50 RPI games. No need to attract more high RPI top profile teams. There are a number of the lesser known teams that would love to come to Lafayette and play ... especially earlier in the year. Plus you can go on the road for some ... just not Beaumont. This part of the schedule can be cleaned up. Again ... you can fare well with low RPI teams as long as their contribution to your OWP is solid.

Briain

[JMV JustMyView]

Teams not wanting to play the Cajuns is not the problem. As I stated, the Cajuns have enough Top 25/50 RPI games. No need to attract more high RPI top profile teams. There are a number of the lesser known teams that would love to come to Lafayette and play ... especially earlier in the year. Plus you can go on the road for some ... just not Beaumont. This part of the schedule can be cleaned up. Again ... you can fare well with low RPI teams as long as their contribution to your OWP is solid.

Briain

Well I have full trust in you and Coach Glasco to build a great schedule in the future years. I know you helped out Mike before and it worked out well.

[GoneGolfin]

Well I have full trust in you and Coach Glasco to build a great schedule in the future years. I know you helped out Mike before and it worked out well.

Recall that one advantage we have today, that was not the case in 2012 and prior ... there are no longer RPI bonuses for conference games. This was a boondoggle for the elite conferences. This was the one recommendation we made to the Coaches Committee that was adopted as an RPI change. Without that change, the Cajuns would have had an RPI of 11 and would not have hosted a Super Regional in 2014. Baby steps.

Brian