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Thread: Baseball RPI

  1. #31

    Default Re: Baseball rpi

    Quote Originally Posted by GoneGolfin View Post
    I alluded to some of the below in this post late last week.

    A few things to consider as the RPI will struggle more than ever to be a useful tool in helping to evaluate the tournament field in 2021. The reason it will struggle is that the RPI is quite dependent on non-conference and cross-regional play to be worth anything (as an evaluative tool). The absence of this results in separate universes of play that cannot be compared.

    #1 The Ivy League is not playing baseball. That will be one additional at-large bid available.

    #2 Because the Big Ten is only playing conference games, how on earth can/will this league be evaluated? Could the NCAA simply decide to grant the conference five bids on gut feel and eye test? Well, maybe. But it would he hugely unpopular as the committee would not have the metrics to support such a decision. There is not a single team in the conference, at the moment, that is worthy of an at-large bid based on past selection criteria. It will take teams breaking away from the pack with very healthy conference W-L records to even have a shot to be in the RPI Top 50. Why?

    If you are a conference playing only conference games, each team will be weighted down by .500 OWP and .500 OOWPs. That is, 75% of the formula of every team will be .500, only to be offset by WP to some degree. A team with a .667 winning percentage (quite solid) would presently have an RPI ranking of about 70 (using current RPIs) at the end of the season once the full conference slate is complete (OWP and OOWP converging to .500).

    In summary, conferences playing only conference games will have their RPIs converge to .500. Teams finishing .500 in conference will have an RPI of .500, which will be well into the triple digit RPI rankings.

    #3 The MAAC is only playing conference games. This is going to provide the opportunity for one or possibly two teams to be in the range of an at-large RPI, simply because they are playing in another universe. What is the NCAA going to do here? Does anyone feel Fairfield is worthy of a Top 5 RPI? If someone wins 80% of their games, good chance they will be in the RPI Top 30.

    #4 Based on past metrics, the ACC does not get 10. I am not saying they will not get ten, but something will need to significantly change in the selection process for that to happen.

    #5 Same for Big 12? Right now they only get four ... with the fifth and sixth teams not even close ... and frankly unworthy.

    #0 It seems that all of the postseason will be at neutral sites.

    All of this to say ... I think there are going to be some real challenges in the selection process and I am not about to say the Sun Belt will be a one bid league yet. But for certain, it will be challenging for the Cajuns with such a weak remaining schedule. And scheduling UNA at home is a killer.

    Brian
    I was just saying that the other day UL is up to 40 but SOS takes a noise dive and little room to go up from here besides sweeping South AL

  2. #32
    lcitsh is online now Ragin Cajuns of Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns Fan for Sure

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    UL Baseball Re: Baseball RPI

    https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/baseball/d1/rpi

    Through Games Apr. 06 2021

    36 41 Louisiana Sun Belt 18-11 6-6 0-0 12-5 0-0
    63 63 Coastal Carolina Sun Belt 14-9 4-4 0-0 10-5 0-0
    69 68 South Alabama Sun Belt 16-10 8-4 0-0 8-6 0-0
    113 135 Ga. Southern Sun Belt 14-13 5-4 0-1 9-8 0-0
    123 119 Georgia St. Sun Belt 7-23 3-16 0-0 4-7 0-0
    136 124 App State Sun Belt 11-13 4-13 0-0 7-0 0-0
    145 161 Little Rock Sun Belt 12-12 6-10 0-0 6-2 0-0
    158 156 ULM Sun Belt 10-14 3-8 1-0 6-6 0-0
    163 167 UT Arlington Sun Belt 12-16 5-8 1-1 6-7 0-0
    164 166 Troy Sun Belt 13-14 1-8 0-0 12-6 0-0
    196 204 Texas St. Sun Belt 13-17 1-7 2-2 10-8 0-0
    200 197 Arkansas St. Sun Belt 8-14 2-12 0-0 6-2 0-0

    See what beating Nicholls does for you?


  3. #33

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    Default Re: Baseball RPI

    This week D1Baseball.com has us a #2 seed at the Austin regional.


  4. #34

    Default Re: Baseball RPI

    Quote Originally Posted by Dad04 View Post
    This week D1Baseball.com has us a #2 seed at the Austin regional.
    I still think we have to win the belt regular season or tournament to make a regional

  5. #35

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    Default Re: Baseball RPI

    RPI up to #34 as of 4/7/21.

    The ULM win over Alabama gave a small boost. We are also now ahead of Lusting Seniors University.


  6. #36
    RC8 is online now Ragin Cajuns of Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns Fan for Sure

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    Default Re: Baseball RPI

    Quote Originally Posted by ULvictory View Post
    RPI up to #34 as of 4/7/21.

    The ULM win over Alabama gave a small boost. We are also now ahead of Lusting Seniors University.
    Lusting Seniors University. Nice

  7. #37

    Default Re: Baseball RPI

    Can't wait to see how 196 Texas State and 200 Arkansas State impacts us. Sorry, can't get excited over RPI and stick my head in the sand when the t u r d s of our schedule await.


  8. #38

    Default Re: Baseball RPI

    Possibly but D1 has us and south Alabama both getting in, do they see one of us getting an at large and I’d assume they think that is us


  9. #39

    Default Re: Baseball RPI

    Quote Originally Posted by ZoomZoom View Post
    Can't wait to see how 196 Texas State and 200 Arkansas State impacts us. Sorry, can't get excited over RPI and stick my head in the sand when the t u r d s of our schedule await.
    North Alabama will take a weed whacker to the RPI

  10. #40

    Default Re: Baseball RPI

    Quote Originally Posted by Scott Malkinson View Post
    North Alabama will take a weed whacker to the RPI
    We need Rob Perillo in full load diaper mode that weekend.

  11. #41

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    Default Re: Baseball RPI

    Quote Originally Posted by ZoomZoom View Post
    Can't wait to see how 196 Texas State and 200 Arkansas State impacts us. Sorry, can't get excited over RPI and stick my head in the sand when the t u r d s of our schedule await.
    Don't use those teams rpi rankings to judge how bad they are, just use their record/win pct. The ranking isnt part of the formula to show how it impacts our RPI number. Texas State is not going to be that bad of an impact. They are coming on strong and getting close to .500, though many of their wins come at the cost of another conference teams loss. We face these challenges every year as there's always a couple of bottom feeders in conference with bad records.

    As mentioned, its UNA that will be a big blow because of their record. We'd be better off playing Alabama State, a team that's lower RPI ranked than UNA bc of records.

  12. #42

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    Default Re: Baseball RPI

    Quote Originally Posted by Scott Malkinson View Post
    I still think we have to win the belt regular season or tournament to make a regional
    Yes. Their projection is based on us winning the tourney, likely due to our impending RPI face plant. I should have included that.

    They have So. AL as 3 seed at large. Of course this all changes again in 4 days.

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