This is amazing...can’t get photo to upload of ESPN metric, we had a 4.1% chance of winning with 3 seconds to go.
As a point of comparison Texas Tech had an 8% probability of beating Alice Shoe with 1:14 to go.
My takeaway from this game and a couple of things that I noticed were rebounding as mentioned earlier but one thing I saw that was really interesting to me was 3pt shooting. I've been very critical of Marlin and his want to shoot a ton of perimeter shots. We've gone games where we shoot 25+ 3's but are shooting 30% or less as a team doing so. Saturday, we shot only 17 3's even though we shot over 60%. We were efficient which we couldn't say very much this season. I hope we stick to a similar recipe and don't get the swollen head and start putting up 30 3"s per game.
Also, I know people mentioned rebounding and why we didn't hit the offensive boards as hard as usual and it showed. We had only 6 to their 14. What sticks out to me as a slight concern though, is that that we gave up 14 offensive boards to Txst even though we are a better rebounding team. Not sure what the reason for that was since you can't blame it on not sending everybody to the boards like you can on the offensive side. Great win nonetheless.
Usually, the higher percentage you shoot, the lower your offensive rebounds will be.
I really don't want to face Texas State again, I know we are 3 of 4 vs them, but they really give us fits, specifically a couple of their players:
Mason Harell, Isiah Small and Caleb Asbury. These three guys averaged 41 points per game (Harrell-15, Small-15 and Asbury-11) per game in 4 games. TSU averaged 70 points per game vs us, so these 3 players made up 57% of their offensive production. The other issue is that in our 3 wins we averaged winning by 3 points (6, 2 and 1), in their victory over us they beat us by 12. Granted we did not have Dou Gueye for the 1st and 2nd game, but nonetheless, those three players give us fits.
Good observation on the shooting. One other thing that I have noticed this season is we are taking more mid range shots. That may be because of the way defenses are playing us. Wilson, Russell, and Butts all made some of those on Saturday. I think that is a positive as it forces defenses to have to guard the entire court.
I'll add Davis to that. He got us for 18 assists in the two games in Lafayette, but was mostly a non factor in San Marcos.
It's going to be interesting down the stretch.
ULM and Arkansas State are the two worst teams in the division, but they've been competitive and somewhat successful at home. Neither team has won on the road.
Here's what's left
UL 7-3 at Arkansas State (2), ULM, at ULM, UTA (2) at LR (2)
TXST 5-3, LR(2) UTA, at UTA, Ark St (makeup game) at Ark St (2)
LR 6-4 @TXST (2), ASU, at ASU, @ ULM (2), UL
UTA 5-5 ULM (2), TXST, at TXST, @UL (2), ASTATE (2)
ARK ST 3-5 UL (2), LR, @ LR, @TXST (makeup) TX ST (2), @ UTA
ULM 2-8 @ UTA (2), @UL, UL, LR(2), @ TXST (2)
Note only one game between ASU and TXST will be made up. That means TXST loses a home game.
Arkansas State hosts both UL and TXST. Those are dangerous games for the leaders.
Little Rock has to go to Texas State this weekend. If either sweeps, the other is done, I think.
Lots of basketball to be played. It's going to be fun the final four weeks.
Checking out the Cajuns conference stats? Really we’re much better than our stats suggest. We’re near the bottom half in most of the categories. We’re 5/1 in one possession games.
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