MBB G2 M1: Louisiana 66, UNO 63

[zephyr]

Obviously these guys are showing they can make the three pointers in practice. Guys like Au and Butts have done so in their previous stops. Wilson actually shot 38 per cent from three last year. Perhaps the pressure of having to actually perform in games is a factor here. As far as analytics go, the 33.33 percent from three equaling 50 percent from two is obvious. However, it is also true that rebounding numbers and free throw attempts are negatively impacted by a heavy reliance on the three ball. Studies have shown that you have to hit 38 percent from three to truly make it equal to 50 percent from two. At least that is what NBA folks believe. I imagine it is similar in the college game.

Yep and that's kind of why I used the GSW as the example because while they led the league in 3 point percentage and shots for several years, they also led the league or were near the lead in rebounding, particularly on the offensive end. Having guys crash the boards and be able to kick out to a wide open shooter is a big key in a lot of their makes as that is often the most open a shooter will be is off of a miss.

The reason I focus on "open" is because it is statistically proven that you shoot better when you are open. If you are a 45% midrange shooter, your percentage jumps 15% or so when shooting an open shot. If we are getting open shots at 3 then that is one thing but nobody, including coach Marlin, will ever be able to tell me that shooting contested or rushed 3's is better than working for a quality mid range shot. You may not mind Steph Curry or Klay Thompson taking those shots because they are the best at what they do but most guys obviously can't shoot like that especially if its contested.

[Turbine]

It doesn’t take some strange algorithms analytics to understand making 3 pointers at 33.333% clip is equal to the a duce at 50% clip. But it’s not. Those inside the arch duces gets you many more foul shots, and with a good rebounding team more 2nd chance points.

Then of course there’s the clear sign you’re not even close to the 33.333% mark. My 3rd grade granddaughter can give me the odds of that suddenly changing during the game.

I agree on everything except the 2nd chance points.

The extra fouls generated from taking 2-Pointers, reduces rebound potential

[zephyr]

I agree on everything except the 2nd chance points.

The extra fouls generated from taking 2-Pointers, reduces rebound potential

Shooting further out makes for longer misses which decrease your chances of second chance points. If you have 4 guys roaming the outside shooting long range shots, you have less rebounding potential creating 2nd chance points.

[Turbine]

Shooting further out makes for longer misses which decrease your chances of second chance points. If you have 4 guys roaming the outside shooting long range shots, you have less rebounding potential creating 2nd chance points.

I understand that.

If no fouls occured I would agree.

On the 2 attempts fouls and rebounds split the count.

In a low foul game you are correct.

[Cajunsmike]

Yep and that's kind of why I used the GSW as the example because while they led the league in 3 point percentage and shots for several years, they also led the league or were near the lead in rebounding, particularly on the offensive end. Having guys crash the boards and be able to kick out to a wide open shooter is a big key in a lot of their makes as that is often the most open a shooter will be is off of a miss.

The reason I focus on "open" is because it is statistically proven that you shoot better when you are open. If you are a 45% midrange shooter, your percentage jumps 15% or so when shooting an open shot. If we are getting open shots at 3 then that is one thing but nobody, including coach Marlin, will ever be able to tell me that shooting contested or rushed 3's is better than working for a quality mid range shot. You may not mind Steph Curry or Klay Thompson taking those shots because they are the best at what they do but most guys obviously can't shoot like that especially if its contested.

Generally agree with all those points. What is frustrating for the Cajuns is that the great majority of missed threes in the first two games came off of good looks. Coach Marlin will not tell you that a contested or rushed three is better than an open mid range shot. They design things to get open threes. At UNO, I recall Butts taking a couple of shots early in the shot clock and Russell may have forced one or two. I bet 20 of the 24 three pointers were open looks. When you are missing that many however, perhaps an extra pass or dribble to get a better shot would be a good idea. I know he does not like one that changes the shot from 22 feet to 20 feet. One that gets you to 15 feet however is definitely something we should do more often. Only disagreement we may have here is are we taking open three pointers or contested three pointers. We rarely take contested threes from the two games I have seen. You would think eventually some of those perimeter shots will fall.