Basketball Expectations

[ULvictory]

We all love our basketball team. We all love to support Coach Marlin and his staff during the Winter/Spring time of our athletic year. There's nothing like a loud Cajundome when our guys are making a run on the hard floor. With that being said, the well-being of college basketball has become extremely volatile over the past decade with the growth, but yet devaluing, of AAU. We have seen the "one-and-done" model not only change the scope of the sport, but also expose its weaknesses and corruptions. And we have seen the attempts by the P5 conferences and schools turning the sport into a monopoly at the expense of mid-majors. The tournament selections this past season exposed exactly that.

So, being a mid-major, we have fallen into the dungeon of a one-bid league. I was not around during the early 70's to late 80's when we produced some nationally recognized teams on the court. I grew up during the Fletcher and Evans era, so that is all that I know when it comes to the past in Cajun basketball history. I remember going to games when the Cajundome would put 9,000 in it on a Saturday night. Today, we are having trouble even breaking the 5,000 mark in attendance, even when we won 27 regular season games. If there is anything that I have noticed, it has created a small division within our fan base for expectations. And I'm not saying that people expect us to lose and are ok with it. At least, I would hope not. We all want success, but that level of success differs from fan to fan based on the the scope of what college basketball has created for itself today from the style of play to the political realm behind the scenes. So with that, my question to all of you is this:

What are our expectations as a basketball program? Are we good with 27 wins, a regular season title with no tournament appearance? Or what about winning less during the regular season but winning those key 3 games in March to get us to the tournament? What about going under .500 during the regular season but still somehow winning the Sun Belt tournament and making the dance?

For me, personally, I want to make the tournament. At the same time, it doesn't mean winning 27 games. I would say the magic number would be around 18 wins at a minimum, and then a tournament berth. I also think that 1 tournament appearance in 13 years is a stat that needs to improve. This is a crucial time for our program moving forward. The question becomes, what expectations do we have?

[VObserver]

I expect us to play a non conference schedule that does not include teams that usually reside in the bottom half of the RPI barrel. I expect us to have a respectable record vs top 100 opponents, a solid winning record vs RPI 101-200, and total dominance of teams 201 and below. I expect us to finish in the top 3 in conference every year, and to go to the dance with no worse than a 13 seed at least every third year.

We play in a lower mid level conference. We should be in the conversation every single year when predictions are being made about who will win the regular season and the tournament.

We have the resources to do this, but Marlin is probably not the coach who can get us there.

[anhil8tor]

Just to clarify for me.. IS NCAA Tourney (in basketball) equal then NCAA Regional, Super Regional or CWS?

[CrazyCajun]

Just to clarify for me.. IS NCAA Tourney (in basketball) equal then NCAA Regional, Super Regional or CWS?

I’d say equivalent to a regional and sweet 16 is the supers...omaha elite 8...being a “midmajor” in basketball is equivalent to being in the SWAC in baseball

[ULvictory]

Just to clarify for me.. IS NCAA Tourney (in basketball) equal then NCAA Regional, Super Regional or CWS?

A regional appearance would be sufficient

[Balanced_view]

my expectations, is to win the games we should win, be competitive, and get a few upsets in games we are underdogs and win the majority of games that we are even or toss ups. do those and the team will find itself playing in conference championships and NCAA tournaments regularly.

[Cajunsmike]

We all love our basketball team. We all love to support Coach Marlin and his staff during the Winter/Spring time of our athletic year. There's nothing like a loud Cajundome when our guys are making a run on the hard floor. With that being said, the well-being of college basketball has become extremely volatile over the past decade with the growth, but yet devaluing, of AAU. We have seen the "one-and-done" model not only change the scope of the sport, but also expose its weaknesses and corruptions. And we have seen the attempts by the P5 conferences and schools turning the sport into a monopoly at the expense of mid-majors. The tournament selections this past season exposed exactly that.

So, being a mid-major, we have fallen into the dungeon of a one-bid league. I was not around during the early 70's to late 80's when we produced some nationally recognized teams on the court. I grew up during the Fletcher and Evans era, so that is all that I know when it comes to the past in Cajun basketball history. I remember going to games when the Cajundome would put 9,000 in it on a Saturday night. Today, we are having trouble even breaking the 5,000 mark in attendance, even when we won 27 regular season games. If there is anything that I have noticed, it has created a small division within our fan base for expectations. And I'm not saying that people expect us to lose and are ok with it. At least, I would hope not. We all want success, but that level of success differs from fan to fan based on the the scope of what college basketball has created for itself today from the style of play to the political realm behind the scenes. So with that, my question to all of you is this:

What are our expectations as a basketball program? Are we good with 27 wins, a regular season title with no tournament appearance? Or what about winning less during the regular season but winning those key 3 games in March to get us to the tournament? What about going under .500 during the regular season but still somehow winning the Sun Belt tournament and making the dance?

For me, personally, I want to make the tournament. At the same time, it doesn't mean winning 27 games. I would say the magic number would be around 18 wins at a minimum, and then a tournament berth. I also think that 1 tournament appearance in 13 years is a stat that needs to improve. This is a crucial time for our program moving forward. The question becomes, what expectations do we have?

My expectations are to finish in the top third in the conference every year. That shows consistency. We generally have been there except in 2017. However, a missed Bryce Washington layup at Georgia State prevented us from being 2nd that year. NCAA tournament is the goal but you have to get somewhat lucky to win the conference tourney. Health of the team at tourney time and in the NIT really hurt us this season. UL Victory is right in that the current process of excluding mid majors has really hurt us here which is why I agree that focus on the overall season may be a better gauge of your program than the NCAA tournament. Going forward, I would hope to be first or second at least a third of the time. We have not been quite there. We could be on our way there with the good season we are coming off of. I would also like to finally win a game against a Top 6 school on the road. This coming season we will likely have a challenge doing so as we probably go to Kansas and Tennessee. That is part of the semi tournament we are scheduled to be in. Problem in finalizing that is finding two other mid majors to come to us which is part of the multi team event process. Finally, I realize there are several people on this board who question the direction/potential of the program under Coach Marlin. I respect that view. However, the great majority of basketball followers I talk to around town STRONGLY support this staff and are happy about the upcoming extension. That is a formality at this stage-it will happen soon regardless of the concerns of some. I do agree that buyout terms that protect both parties should be part of this.

[CajunT]

My expectations are to finish in the top third in the conference every year. That shows consistency. We generally have been there except in 2017. However, a missed Bryce Washington layup at Georgia State prevented us from being 2nd that year. NCAA tournament is the goal but you have to get somewhat lucky to win the conference tourney. Health of the team at tourney time and in the NIT really hurt us this season. UL Victory is right in that the current process of excluding mid majors has really hurt us here which is why I agree that focus on the overall season may be a better gauge of your program than the NCAA tournament. Going forward, I would hope to be first or second at least a third of the time. We have not been quite there. We could be on our way there with the good season we are coming off of. I would also like to finally win a game against a Top 6 school on the road. This coming season we will likely have a challenge doing so as we probably go to Kansas and Tennessee. That is part of the semi tournament we are scheduled to be in. Problem in finalizing that is finding two other mid majors to come to us which is part of the multi team event process. Finally, I realize there are several people on this board who question the direction/potential of the program under Coach Marlin. I respect that view. However, the great majority of basketball followers I talk to around town STRONGLY support this staff and are happy he about the upcoming extension. That is a formality at this stage-it will happen soon regardless of the concerns of some. I do agree that buyout terms that protect both parties should be part of this.

Mike, with all do respect that group of strong supporters equals to about half the number of season ticket holders in baseball. What is the number of high approval outside that group? I'm not certain, but we need to get more people in the dome for games. Winning 27 games this past season should be an enticement to others to go watch what should be a pretty good team that will be on the floor this season.

[Cajunsmike]

Mike, with all do respect that group of strong supporters equals to about half the number of season ticket holders in baseball. What is the number of high approval outside that group? I'm not certain, but we need to get more people in the dome for games. Winning 27 games this past season should be an enticement to others to go watch what should be a pretty good team that will be on the floor this season.

No argument with that post. Especially part of needing more folks in Dome. I don't know level of support outside the bulk of season ticket holders. I suspect it is casual to most whereas the coaching staff is not a big concern to them. However much more of the baseball season ticket base is corporate related. That is why other than on Friday nights and key games, actual attendance is about a little more than half of what is normally announced. I wish basketball had a similar problem because that would mean more corporate tickets.

[VObserver]

It wasn't that long ago (in fact, it wasn't long after our NCAA tournament appearances) that some on this board made it clear regular season accomplishments were critical. Louisiana Tech, a school that hasn't made an NCAA appearance in 27 years, was actually held up as an example by those folks because they had some very good regular seasons.

After winning a conference championship this past season and scoring 27 wins, some of those same people wanted Marlin fired because we dared to lose a game in the conference tournament. They now use the "one NCAA appearance in eight years" as their reasoning.

Bob Marlin is the head coach. He's going to get a contract extension. That is due, in part, to finishing toward the top of the league in four of the last five seasons. It is also due, in part, to reaching the conference tournament semifinals in three of the last five years. It is also due, in part, to continued success in the classroom.

When Coach Marlin made his "it all comes down to three days in March" comment, people on this board vilified him and talked about regular season success. And, to reiterate, some of those same people pooh poohed 27 wins because there was a blip during three days in March.

Those particular people will always find things to complain about as long as Bob Marlin is coaching here.

My complaint with Marlin is that his record against teams with a pulse is abysmal. He has had a winning record against teams with RPI of 101-200 twice in eight years; 2013-14 and last season. His record against top 100 teams is even worse, and he is 0 for 8 YEARS against top 100 teams from power conferences. You may be happy with beating up on the dregs of division 1 to pad our record; I am not.

[ULvictory]

My complaint with Marlin is that his record against teams with a pulse is abysmal. He has had a winning record against teams with RPI of 101-200 twice in eight years; 2013-14 and last season. His record against top 100 teams is even worse, and he is 0 for 8 YEARS against top 100 teams from power conferences. You may be happy with beating up on the dregs of division 1 to pad our record; I am not.

So wait......not a single win against top 100 teams from the P5? Wow....

[Cajunsmike]

So wait......not a single win against top 100 teams from the P5? Wow....

That is disappointing but we have played everyone of those on the road. Still I understand the view that you should win one of those occasionally.

[ULvictory]

That is disappointing but we have played everyone of those on the road. Still I understand the view that you should win one of those occasionally.

The problem with not beating those type opponents is that it makes this past 27 win season a little less legitimate. Not taking anything away from last year. They were a fun team to watch. But that's how someone counters the argument with, "Yeah, but who did you beat that was so good?" We have to win those games every now and then.

[CajunEXPRESS]

nm

[MetryCajun]

I think it is reasonable to win the conference once every three years, get in the NCAA tournament once every three years and win 1-2 NCAA games during an 8 year span. This would place you as a top tier mid-major.