Basketball Expectations

[talktomewillis]

And lets remember that if we don't have the personnel to hit from 3, it doesn't matter. If this particular team were to shoot the number of 3's we shot last year, we won't shoot 33%. Let me ask you this, if Justin Miller had the ball would you rather him shooting a little baby hook from 6 feet in the lane or a contested 3? Remember, he's not very good at either one but he shot like 28% from 3 last year and many of those shots were wide open.

I was referring to this past season. There was a debate about the shooting from a year ago and it seemed as though some suggested 45-50% mid range was better than 33% from three.

It isn't.

[Cajunsmike]

I was referring to this past season. There was a debate about the shooting from a year ago and it seemed as though some suggested 45-50% mid range was better than 33% from three.

It isn't.

Simple math says you have to be above 50% from two to better 33% from three. However percentage on "contested" threes is likely to be well below thirty percent. I would always take an open three vs an open mid range shot (8 to 18 feet is the way I define it). In today's game however, coaches are adjusting and running guys off the three point line. You have to adjust accordingly.

[CajunAmos]

A nice article on the subject.

https://www.rockchalktalk.com/2016/2.ll-selfs-teams

[Turbine]

Let's remember something.

33% from three is worth as much as 50% from two.

Almost.

If two teams shot 100 times each, the 50% two-point shooting team will win 100-99

Simple math says you have to be above 50% from two to better 33% from three.

Not so simple math says you got it backwards.

[Ragin4U]

A nice article on the subject.

https://www.rockchalktalk.com/2016/2.ll-selfs-teams

The article touches two basic truths that the debate between 2 and 3 point value leaves out. Defense and rebounding.
Shorter shots=shorter rebounds which should equal more offensive rebounds but shooting more 3's creates more space for the defense to defend. Do those things cancel and we are left with "shoot more 3s"?

[Cajunsmike]

Almost.

If two teams shot 100 times each, the 50% two-point shooting team will win 100-99



Not so simple math says you got it backwards.

I should have said 33.3333 with the decimal 3 going to infinity on threes equals 50 percent on Twos.

[Cajunsmike]

The article touches two basic truths that the debate between 2 and 3 point value leaves out. Defense and rebounding.
Shorter shots=shorter rebounds which should equal more offensive rebounds but shooting more 3's creates more space for the defense to defend. Do those things cancel and we are left with "shoot more 3s"?

Someone studied the issue of shooting more threes considering the rebound situation. They also considered the no. of free throws you earn by shooting two's vs threes. These two factors moved up the required three point percentage needed to equal 50% on twos. Math says you need to hit 33.333 percent on threes to equal 50% on twos The rebound and free throw factors move that to ~ 38 percent. That may have been an NBA study. College nos. may vary slightly from that figure. I know NBA guys look for their volume three point shooters to be near 40% and that is with a longer shot.

[zephyr]

I was referring to this past season. There was a debate about the shooting from a year ago and it seemed as though some suggested 45-50% mid range was better than 33% from three.

It isn't.

We didn't shoot 45% from mid range last year and we will be lucky to hit 33% from 3 this year. However, since you joined in I didn't see where you answered the question. If there is someone at the 10 foot mark unguarded with an open shot would you rather them kick it out to a guy like Justin Miller or Gant for 3? Remember, the question centered on that shooter not necessarily being open as it would be a contested shot.

I think its funny because everyone uses Golden State as the game plan in their minds but people forget that GS has guys who flourish in the mid range like Shaun Livingston, David West and Andre Iguodala not to mention KD who is deadly from there.

[ManAboutTown]

We didn't shoot 45% from mid range last year and we will be lucky to hit 33% from 3 this year. However, since you joined in I didn't see where you answered the question. If there is someone at the 10 foot mark unguarded with an open shot would you rather them kick it out to a guy like Justin Miller or Gant for 3? Remember, the question centered on that shooter not necessarily being open as it would be a contested shot.

I think its funny because everyone uses Golden State as the game plan in their minds but people forget that GS has guys who flourish in the mid range like Shaun Livingston, David West and Andre Iguodala not to mention KD who is deadly from there.

Also, GS roster is full of world class players that make their system look easy And they hang their hat on sharing the basketball

[Cajun90]

Last year the field goal percentage from 2-point range averaged 50.4% for all Div 1 teams. The 3-point FG percentage average for all teams was 35.2%.

There were 265 NCAA Div 1 teams that shot 33.3% or better from three point range. So from a strict statistical standpoint it looks like the 3 pt. shot wins over a 2 pt. shot but as we all know that doesn't tell the whole story. The numbers are extremely close and teams will really need to figure out their own strengths and weaknesses. I do believe it makes a lot of sense to do a statistical analysis of your team and base your style of play to some extent on that analysis. It would make sense that a team with strong 3 pt. shooters would play a different game than teams who play "big" inside and play well at the free throw line.

[CajunJeaux]

Nm

[CajunJeaux]

Screw mid range shots and 3’s.I just want a Dwayne Mitchell 2.0 to lace ‘em up for us!!!

[Turbine]

I wonder what the 2-point and 3-point percentages were, when no fouls were committed?

[Cajunsmike]

We didn't shoot 45% from mid range last year and we will be lucky to hit 33% from 3 this year. However, since you joined in I didn't see where you answered the question. If there is someone at the 10 foot mark unguarded with an open shot would you rather them kick it out to a guy like Justin Miller or Gant for 3? Remember, the question centered on that shooter not necessarily being open as it would be a contested shot.

I think its funny because everyone uses Golden State as the game plan in their minds but people forget that GS has guys who flourish in the mid range like Shaun Livingston, David West and Andre Iguodala not to mention KD who is deadly from there.

Shoot the 10 footer.

[BeauCajun]

Shoot the 10 footer.

All day long.