Basketball Expectations

[CajunEXPRESS]

Well the Cajuns are hitting the threes at a very good rate. To qualify open vs contested is a straw man. Of course contested shots aren’t often the best option. It’s also a false qualifier to say open vs contested because in theory you avoid contested shots period, and being open isn’t the result of an either/or situation.

[Cajunsmike]

Well the Cajuns are hitting the threes at a very good rate. To qualify open vs contested is a straw man. Of course contested shots aren’t often the best option. It’s also a false qualifier to say open vs contested because in theory you avoid contested shots period, and being open isn’t the result of an either/or situation.

I can tell difference between an open shot and a contested one. My point about defense remains. In today's world the defenses are contesting a lot more threes than they used to. Now a guy like Cedric Russell can get his shot off quickly before the defense can set regardless of where it is from. When contested however, a pump fake and a couple of dribbles may get him an open look from eighteen feet. If he does than a couple of times and sinks the mid range, he won't have to do it too often as they will back off of him a little. Marquetti should do the same.

[CajunEXPRESS]

Nope, don't agree. Mike you're actually saying that the mid range two in your example 18' is actually gonna be easier and be hit at a much higher rate than the three after a pump fake. So a shot practiced much less from essentially the same distance is the better option. Nope actually probably going in less than the one actually practiced over and over. Frankly I'm doubtful it's any less contested.

I'm not saying never take a mid range, but definitely a minor option.

The verdict is in. Cajuns score a lot better at threes than twos. And that includes layups

https://ragincajuns.com/documents/20...ed.pdf?id=3026

2016/17 closer to what y’all want, but still favors threes.

https://ragincajuns.com/documents/20...ed.pdf?id=1501

[zephyr]

Those open mid range shots rarely exceed 45%, most people who cannot hit 30% from 3 point range don't shoot them. So you've got to hit 15 more jump shots mid range to equal 30% in a hundred shots. Not a good risk, but go ahead let y'all bias find exceptions. We're talking the typical player.

Apparently coaches whose living depends on making the right decisions don’t understand.

Where is your data to support the open shot "rarely" exceeds 45%? I'd like to know this info. There is no bias. Bias to what? So you are telling me that you would rather pass up an open mid range shot but take a contested 3? Remember, we are talking about the typical player. That means a much larger discrepancy in contested percentage versus open percentage. If I have Justin Miller and Jerekius Davis out there launching them, yeah, I'd rather see if there's a better shot in the lane to take. Remember, you are talking about the typical player. Not Steph Curry. I don't know a typical player who would make more contested 3 pointers than open mid range shots.

[zephyr]

Nope, don’t agree. Mike you’re actually saying that the mid range two in your example 18’ is actually gonna be easier and be hit at a much higher rate than the three after a pump fake. So a shot practiced much less from essentially the same distance is the better option. Nope actually probably going in less than the one actually practiced over and over. Frankly I’m doubtful it’s any less contested.

I’m not saying never take a mid range, but definitely a minor option.

Someone, please pin this post up please.

[zephyr]

I can tell difference between an open shot and a contested one. My point about defense remains. In today's world the defenses are contesting a lot more threes than they used to. Now a guy like Cedric Russell can get his shot off quickly before the defense can set regardless of where it is from. When contested however, a pump fake and a couple of dribbles may get him an open look from eighteen feet. If he does than a couple of times and sinks the mid range, he won't have to do it too often as they will back off of him a little. Marquetti should do the same.

Mike, you are absolutely right. The defenses now talk about "Running the shooter off the line". This means they are selling out to contest the 3 in hopes that the shooter will put the ball on the floor or pass it. This is absolutely creating more space in the lane and mid range part of the court and Bartley made a living there last year. As a team, we shot 36% from 3 point range this past year. That is not going to win us games when teams are contesting everything we shoot since many of our attempts were open good shots after Stroman penetrated and kicked out.

[CajunEXPRESS]

Where is your data to support the open shot "rarely" exceeds 45%? I'd like to know this info. There is no bias. Bias to what? So you are telling me that you would rather pass up an open mid range shot but take a contested 3? Remember, we are talking about the typical player. That means a much larger discrepancy in contested percentage versus open percentage. If I have Justin Miller and Jerekius Davis out there launching them, yeah, I'd rather see if there's a better shot in the lane to take. Remember, you are talking about the typical player. Not Steph Curry. I don't know a typical player who would make more contested 3 pointers than open mid range shots.

https://ragincajuns.com/documents/20...ed.pdf?id=3026

Cajuns score 36% with threes and around 45% with twos including layups. I'll infer mid range probably less than layups.

16/17 stats closer to y’all desired goals, but threes still producing more points and again a lotta layups as opposed to mid range threes.

https://ragincajuns.com/documents/20...ed.pdf?id=1501

[zephyr]

https://ragincajuns.com/documents/20...ed.pdf?id=3026

Cajuns score 36% with threes and around 45% with twos including layups. I'll infer mid range probably less than layups.

16/17 stats closer to y’all desired goals, but threes still producing more points and again a lotta layups as opposed to mid range threes.

https://ragincajuns.com/documents/20...ed.pdf?id=1501

You aren't going to post anything that is going to lend credence to what you are saying. Mike is absolutely right. Our game is not the same as that of high powered teams in the NBA who have the personnel to favor such a scheme. Look at the Houston Rockets. They were actually the team I was referring to in my example of the pass out for double pump 3 (Chris Paul). When CP3 is his most effective, he is getting in the lane and hitting 15 footers like they are layups. When he is not covered and uncontested, they are layups to the typical NBA player. When they are forcing the 3, it is not hit at nearly the same percentage when contested and this goes for James Harden.

I went to start adding on to the rest of this post and i just thought that it's easier to say that you have to have the personnel to rack up 3's at an alarming rate, even contested. Not many teams on the collegiate level have that, if any, and you will always see how important the inside and mid range game are, especially in college.

Also, I'd say that the whole 3 point barrage thing is great and looks good and gets kids excited but when the game is on the line and your butt's puckering up, any coach will look at an open 12 footer and be happy with that shot.

[zephyr]

https://ragincajuns.com/documents/20...ed.pdf?id=3026

Cajuns score 36% with threes and around 45% with twos including layups. I'll infer mid range probably less than layups.

16/17 stats closer to y’all desired goals, but threes still producing more points and again a lotta layups as opposed to mid range threes.

https://ragincajuns.com/documents/20...ed.pdf?id=1501

What is a mid range 3?

[Cajunfever]

https://ragincajuns.com/documents/20...ed.pdf?id=3026

Cajuns score 36% with threes and around 45% with twos including layups. I'll infer mid range probably less than layups.


https://ragincajuns.com/documents/20...ed.pdf?id=1501

The 2 point FG% last year was actually 52%--the 46% includes all field goals (2 pointers and 3 pointers)

[zephyr]

Another point on this. We return exactly two whole guys (Russell, Marquetti) who shot over 35% from 3pt range. If we continue the trend of high usage from the outside, we may be in for some disappointment. That is not to say we can't have guys improve but we will have to be able to generate offense from everywhere, not just the perimeter.

Goes back to having the personnel to match the analytics. Don't think we have that next year.

[Boomer]

Well the Cajuns are hitting the threes at a very good rate. To qualify open vs contested is a straw man. Of course contested shots aren’t often the best option. It’s also a false qualifier to say open vs contested because in theory you avoid contested shots period, and being open isn’t the result of an either/or situation.

...I remember when my daughter played and would get a few offensive boards.....I would call the inside the land of the Giants.....if she went back up with an inside shot a six 2-4 girl would definitely reject it and as defenders naturally faded in our all conference guard positioned for an open 3......near the end of the year Wash was getting some rejects or being forced into bad shots inside.....probably an outside pass would get a 3 point attempt with limited defense contesting!

[zephyr]

...I remember when my daughter played and would get a few offensive boards.....I would call the inside the land of the Giants.....if she went back up with an inside shot a six 2-4 girl would definitely reject it and as defenders naturally faded in our all conference guard positioned for an open 3......near the end of the year Wash was getting some rejects or being forced into bad shots inside.....probably an outside pass would get a 3 point attempt with limited defense contesting!

Again, this is apples to oranges. Express literally said a contested 3 is better than an open mid range shot. I don't think any coach out there would support that scenario. An open 3 shot by Cedric Russel or Frank Bartley versus anything shot by Justin Miller regardless of range is preferable.

[talktomewillis]

Let's remember something.

33% from three is worth as much as 50% from two.

[zephyr]

Let's remember something.

33% from three is worth as much as 50% from two.

And lets remember that if we don't have the personnel to hit from 3, it doesn't matter. If this particular team were to shoot the number of 3's we shot last year, we won't shoot 33%. Let me ask you this, if Justin Miller had the ball would you rather him shooting a little baby hook from 6 feet in the lane or a contested 3? Remember, he's not very good at either one but he shot like 28% from 3 last year and many of those shots were wide open.