2019 Mississippi River

[Cajun90]

I'm thinking corn, soy beans, wheat, beef and pork prices will be going up this summer. I don't think they will be able to plant much in the flooded areas.

I have grave concerns about the cost of pork bellies (aka bacon). :-)

[zephyr]

I have grave concerns about the cost of pork bellies (aka bacon). :-)

Cue the Trading Places Gif's.

[CajunNation]

Cue the Trading Places Gif's.

[HelmutVII]

On the other hand Beef and Pork might go down because they will be forced to sell because feed will be expensive.

[Cajun90]

In another thread the talk of flood insurance came up and thought I would post a few things here.

The majority of homes flooded in the U.S. are NOT in a 100 yr. flood plain. It is important to understand your risk. Unfortunately realtors, builders, and our government aren't very good at doing this. They simple tell you.... "you aren't in a flood zone and don't have to have flood insurance". The truth is much more complicated. IF your property is a foot above base flood elevation then hey your good right? Not exactly; and a lot of property in the Lafayette area is like that. Many developers built up their property to that height. It is like walking a tight rope.

Bottom line is look up the flood maps online and see what your TRUE risk is for flooding. If you are one of those who isn't far above the base flood you should be concerned. IF you are say 20-25 feet above base flood then maybe your risk isn't that big of a deal. With that said flood insurance for most people outside of the 100 yr. plan isn't very expensive.

[CajunAmos]

In another thread the talk of flood insurance came up and thought I would post a few things here.

The majority of homes flooded in the U.S. are NOT in a 100 yr. flood plain. It is important to understand your risk. Unfortunately realtors, builders, and our government aren't very good at doing this. They simple tell you.... "you aren't in a flood zone and don't have to have flood insurance". The truth is much more complicated. IF your property is a foot above base flood elevation then hey your good right? Not exactly; and a lot of property in the Lafayette area is like that. Many developers built up their property to that height. It is like walking a tight rope.

Bottom line is look up the flood maps online and see what your TRUE risk is for flooding. If you are one of those who isn't far above the base flood you should be concerned. IF you are say 20-25 feet above base flood then maybe your risk isn't that big of a deal. With that said flood insurance for most people outside of the 100 yr. plan isn't very expensive.

I'm lucky enough to be in that 20-25 feet number you listed. The roadways might be impassable to the house, but the house should be OK.

What I think I saw in the last flooding event in the Youngsville area was related to all the new subdivisions disrupting the previous slopes that led to the drainage systems in place. Could I maybe be right on that?

[Cajun90]

I'm lucky enough to be in that 20-25 feet number you listed. The roadways might be impassable to the house, but the house should be OK.

What I think I saw in the last flooding event in the Youngsville area was related to all the new subdivisions disrupting the previous slopes that led to the drainage systems in place. Could I maybe be right on that?

Much of the development has done a pretty good job of accounting for retention ponds etc. but that is a small part of the issue. A lot of the primary drainage channels haven't been adequately maintained which is a bigger problem. Climate change is another concern. Manmade or not there is plenty of evidence for changes in our recorded history to know that extreme events are on the rise and exceed the design standards that are probably 30-50 years old at this point.

I really believe it is time to change how we (U.S. government) publish data regarding flood risk. With computer based systems in place this should not be that difficult of a task.

[zephyr]

In another thread the talk of flood insurance came up and thought I would post a few things here.

The majority of homes flooded in the U.S. are NOT in a 100 yr. flood plain. It is important to understand your risk. Unfortunately realtors, builders, and our government aren't very good at doing this. They simple tell you.... "you aren't in a flood zone and don't have to have flood insurance". The truth is much more complicated. IF your property is a foot above base flood elevation then hey your good right? Not exactly; and a lot of property in the Lafayette area is like that. Many developers built up their property to that height. It is like walking a tight rope.

Bottom line is look up the flood maps online and see what your TRUE risk is for flooding. If you are one of those who isn't far above the base flood you should be concerned. IF you are say 20-25 feet above base flood then maybe your risk isn't that big of a deal. With that said flood insurance for most people outside of the 100 yr. plan isn't very expensive.

The problem is that we are in South Louisiana and even for properties not in a flood zone, we are close to the BFE. I've never seen a property here that is 20-25 above the BFE. There's risk in anything we do here. The simple fact is that you can't predict catastrophic storms and where their reach will go. You can monitor things like development trends and see what their impact on your property could be like. Cue Youngsville and the impact that years of development had on old farm land that was not homesites.

[CajunAmos]

The problem is that we are in South Louisiana and even for properties not in a flood zone, we are close to the BFE. I've never seen a property here that is 20-25 above the BFE. There's risk in anything we do here. The simple fact is that you can't predict catastrophic storms and where their reach will go. You can monitor things like development trends and see what their impact on your property could be like. Cue Youngsville and the impact that years of development had on old farm land that was not homesites.

The map says I'm 22-1/2' in between Youngsville & Milton.

[zephyr]

The map says I'm 22-1/2' in between Youngsville & Milton.

what is your ground elevation?

[BananaHammock]

I think they need to understand the significance of salt water intrusion up the Mississippi River up to Baton rouge (Possibly). This should not be underestimated as the amount of coastal erosion would be extreme. The salt water would kill all, what is now, native vegetation and result in bare soil that would easily erode. Also, the cities that rely on the Mississippi for drinking water would have to modify their water treatment plants to remove salt from the water.

But couldn't they let the river take over the Atchafalaya and do diversion projects towards Baton Rouge and NOLA? I understand the significance of impact the river change would have to BR and NOLA but how long can we go without planning for the inevitable?

[HelmutVII]

All properties in the US are in a flood zone. The difference is if you are in a regulated or unregulated flood zone. A regulated flood zone is either Zone AE (studied flood zone) or Zone A Unstudied flood zone. The difference being Zone AE has been modeled and Zone A has not been modeled. The BFE is published on the flood maps and the Flood Insurance Study in Zone AE while the BFE in Zone A is community determined. There are instances where the model does not pick up local inconsistencies in the ground elevation that puts it above the computed BFE. FEMA recognizes this issue and that is why it is best to have a Flood Elevation Certificate when you are located in Zone A or AE. While it is probably wise to have Flood insurance in many cases In my case the BFE on the Vermilion River nearest my home is 15. The BFE on the St. John Coulee is 25 while my lot is at elevation 38 and the floor is at 40.5. I am not buying flood insurance. If my home floods flooding is not my problem, staying alive is what I need to worry about.

IF I lived an an area south and west of Ambassador Caffery Parkway I would have flood insurance for sure. Scott is not too good either. Once you get west of Scott the land gets flat as a pancake and the drainage basins tend to communicate with each other during high rainfall events.

If you are looking at a piece of property and you see crawfish chimneys on the lot I would avoid it. That crawfish (first cousin to a roach) is trying to tell you something. You just need to be smart enough to understand what they are saying.