2019 Mississippi River

[HelmutVII]

Agree. If I were a betting man I would have wagered that Morganza Floodway would have been used again this year. As you say it still may be but it's too early to say for sure. Continued rains in the Midwest and upper Miss Valley along with the ice/snow melt to come are major concerns. Not looking good.

In 2011, 17 of the 125 gates on the Morganza structure were opened. Don't remember how long they remained open. Water diverted into the Morganza floodway did not rise to the levels initially estimated, partly because of the drought conditions we were in at the time. We are certainly not in drought conditions today. Locally, the highest Atchafalaya stage at Butte LaRose in 2011 after the opening of Morganza was approximately 22.7...if my memory is correct. The reading at Butte LaRose this morning was 19.1. If Morganza is opened, I would expect river stages in the Atchafalaya to exceed those of 2011. Anyone with homes, camps, etc in the Butte LaRose area would have reason to be concerned.

People, businesses, etc with homes/properties in the floodways are sent letters annually informing them of the possibility that the floodways may be utilized. At least that was the case in years past. I would be surprised if that practice has changed.

Above comments are my opinions. I don't speak for the Corps or anyone else.

And with regards to being in trouble if a levee breaks, the loss of life and property damage would be unimaginable, depending of course on the location of the break and when a break may occur.

I guess if we had to pick a spot for the levee to fail it would be on the West bank just east of St. charles across from St. Rose Not too many people there and a direct shot to the Gulf through lake Salvador and Little Lake. Oyster fisher men wouldn't be happy though it would build some land.

[HelmutVII]

Mississippi river going up and predicted to go higher upstream and downstream of the ORCS.

At Vicksburg

https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydr...jan&gage=vckm6

At red river landing

https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydr...lix&gage=rrll1

[Turbine]

Mississippi river going up and predicted to go higher upstream and downstream of the ORCS.

At Vicksburg

https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydr...jan&gage=vckm6

At red river landing

https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydr...lix&gage=rrll1

Is Angola in danger?

[HelmutVII]

Is Angola in danger?

If the levee breaks.

[anhil8tor]

[HelmutVII]

The question is asked is this area or that area in danger. If you live inside the Achafalaya flood way (between the east and west levees) AND they open Morganza then you are not safe. If you didn't get the annual spring letter from the Corps of Engineers saying that they may have to open the spillway then you are OK. If you live adjacent to the Achafalya levees or the Mississippi River levees then you may be in danger if the levee breaks. The entire length of the levee won't break, it will break at isolated locations. If you live near a levee and you walk to the top and the water is within five feet of elevation of the top of the levee It's time to be concerned. Every place in Missouri and Iowa that had problems was a result of a levee breaking or a failure of a dam or a breach of a dam. If there is any possibility of that here in Louisiana, you will hear about it unless you live under a rock.

Now, with the rains we are expecting this week. All bets are off. If you live in an area subject to flooding or you had problems in August of 2016 then I would keep my eye on the weather for the next few days. If a storm cell decides to stay in the area we could be in for some problems.

[LouisianaB]

The question is asked is this area or that area in danger. If you live inside the Achafalaya flood way (between the east and west levees) AND they open Morganza then you are not safe. If you didn't get the annual spring letter from the Corps of Engineers saying that they may have to open the spillway then you are OK. If you live adjacent to the Achafalya levees or the Mississippi River levees then you may be in danger if the levee breaks. The entire length of the levee won't break, it will break at isolated locations. If you live near a levee and you walk to the top and the water is within five feet of elevation of the top of the levee It's time to be concerned. Every place in Missouri and Iowa that had problems was a result of a levee breaking or a failure of a dam or a breach of a dam. If there is any possibility of that here in Louisiana, you will hear about it unless you live under a rock.

Now, with the rains we are expecting this week. All bets are off. If you live in an area subject to flooding or you had problems in August of 2016 then I would keep my eye on the weather for the next few days. If a storm cell decides to stay in the area we could be in for some problems.

**this is opinion. By reading this, you agree release, indemnify and hold harmless HelmetIV for any damages you sustain***

I enjoy this thread, btw. Very insightful from someone who is ignorant to all of this.

[HelmutVII]

**this is opinion. By reading this, you agree release, indemnify and hold harmless HelmetIV for any damages you sustain***

I enjoy this thread, btw. Very insightful from someone who is ignorant to all of this.

You must be a lawyer.

[LouisianaB]

You must be a lawyer.

Just looking out for ya

[HelmutVII]

Just looking out for ya

After being in the practice of Engineering for 43 years I am used to giving a professional opinion. I do it all the time. If somebody asked if they are in danger I would say it depends on what you are doing. If a pedestrian is crossing a busy street I would say they are in danger. However, if they do it carefully and understand the potential for harm then they have a reasonable expectation of crossing the street safely. Not a guarantee. Anything can happen at any time. ie the pedestrian could have a heart attack while crossing the street.

If somebody asks, am I in danger of flooding?. I would answer, it depends on where you are (see my above post). If you live next to a levee and the water is close to the top. Yeah, you might be in danger. Especially if the levee breaks. Might be wise to get your affairs in order. If a bunch of guys in pick up trucks and flashing lights show up and they are walking around with hard hats and safety vests. You might want to think about getting out. Just sayin. Best thing to do is to keep abreast of the situation and be prepared for anything.