2019 Mississippi River

[cypremort]

Go to the your favorite APP store and download USACE Vicksburg APP. It will give you access to lots of valuable information. The Mississippi river stages are predicted to drop after the 15th of March at most stations along the lower reaches of the river. It really needs to do this because once snow melt starts it will probably come up again. The app has a link to twitter feed and river stages.

However, if you look at the NOAA/NWS experimental forecast (which goes out 16 days of expected weather vs 2 days) it shows that the river starts to drop but immediately reverses and starts to rise again. This is due to the forecasted weather for this weekend. I would assume the official forecast will reflect the long term change in the next few days.

From my completely pedistrian view, this does not look good at all. Red River landing will be at least 12ft above flood stage for over 3 weeks. That has to take a toll on the levees. If there are more rain events in the Mississippi valley or warmer weather that increases snow melt then the river at RR could push all time levels. I really think they will have to open Morganza.

https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/experi...sissippi_plot#

[HelmutVII]

However, if you look at the NOAA/NWS experimental forecast (which goes out 16 days of expected weather vs 2 days) it shows that the river starts to drop but immediately reverses and starts to rise again. This is due to the forecasted weather for this weekend. I would assume the official forecast will reflect the long term change in the next few days.

From my completely pedistrian view, this does not look good at all. Red River landing will be at least 12ft above flood stage for over 3 weeks. That has to take a toll on the levees. If there are more rain events in the Mississippi valley or warmer weather that increases snow melt then the river at RR could push all time levels. I really think they will have to open Morganza.

https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/experi...sissippi_plot#

Correct, but I think we need to be thankful for any lowering of river stages we can get right now. Any lowering of the water surface will give us some breathing room. A little bit of something is better than a lot of nothing.

[CajunNation]

However, if you look at the NOAA/NWS experimental forecast (which goes out 16 days of expected weather vs 2 days) it shows that the river starts to drop but immediately reverses and starts to rise again. This is due to the forecasted weather for this weekend. I would assume the official forecast will reflect the long term change in the next few days.

From my completely pedistrian view, this does not look good at all. Red River landing will be at least 12ft above flood stage for over 3 weeks. That has to take a toll on the levees. If there are more rain events in the Mississippi valley or warmer weather that increases snow melt then the river at RR could push all time levels. I really think they will have to open Morganza.

https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/experi...sissippi_plot#

In the recipe that leads to a failed ORCS, and the Mississippi changing course, we are following it to the letter, so far.

Weather pattern remains same until snow melt, then we get a Tropical system in May.

We're basically almost to the point of being a TS away from absolute catastrophe this nation has never seen.

[Ragin4U]

In the recipe that leads to a failed ORCS, and the Mississippi changing course, we are following it to the letter, so far.

Weather pattern remains same until snow melt, then we get a Tropical system in May.

We're basically almost to the point of being a TS away from absolute catastrophe this nation has never seen.

Familiar with the Swiss Cheese model? It normally applies to human systems but would be applicable to these situations. If the rainfall in the upper watershed occurs in this time span rather than that time span, or if the lower watershed is affected by a Gulf storm or if ... When enough holes line up, that catastrophe occurs.

[mahtoo]

Where is Blackhawk Plantation?

A few miles north of the Old River complex.

[billbeck451]

I just wish that Louisiana would divert more water over Baton Rouge and into Louisiana waters instead of dumping all of the water into Mississippi waters which destroys Mississippi's oyster beds and ruins fishing and shrimp harvest for the year, so in reality if Louisiana wants to protect New Orleans they should dump the water into Louisiana waters and impact their fisheries and not straight into Mississippi waters every time.

[CharlieK]

I just wish that Louisiana would divert more water over Baton Rouge and into Louisiana waters instead of dumping all of the water into Mississippi waters which destroys Mississippi's oyster beds and ruins fishing and shrimp harvest for the year, so in reality if Louisiana wants to protect New Orleans they should dump the water into Louisiana waters and impact their fisheries and not straight into Mississippi waters every time.

These structures are controlled by the Corps of Engineers, a Federal agency. Louisiana doesn't control this.

[billbeck451]

just like the Louisiana lobby didnt care that the new levees wpuld cause flooding and push up tidal surges in Mississippi

[CajunNation]

A few miles north of the Old River complex.

pas bon

[CharlieK]

pas bon

Agreed, the rivers come very close to each other just north of the ORCS.