MBB Bracketology

[zephyr]

Some of these predictions make no sense to me. As an example, Vermont is a 13 seed to Louisiana's 12 seed. While Louisiana has a better BPI by two spots, Vermont has a better RPI by 4 spots. However, Vermont has a much better strength of schedule and a better record than does Louisiana against top 150 competition. Looking at it objectively, Vermont, at last right now, should be a higher seed than Louisiana. Maybe the person doing the prediction believes that Louisiana's RPI will be better with a tournament win than will Vermont, But, I don't see it.

There are many predictions that I've seen that seem weird. People have Kansas over Texas Tech and I saw one that had Michigan State is a 3 seed? However, these are projections so they are projecting how these teams will finish which includes completion of the season. That is why this stuff shouldn't be taken too seriously at this point. Vermont won't be in if they don't win their tournament just like the Cajuns.

[UL_Cajuns]

Louisiana’s RPI up to 48 today. Finally cracked the 40s.

[GeauxLouisiana]

12 seeds have been the popular play in games along with the 16 seeds. Not all of the 12's will be automatic bids more than likely. I think the 12 seed could be our limit but if we were to win out, we could possibly see an 11 seed although it is not likely.

Not true regarding the play in games. The play in games have been 11 and 16 seeds for the last 3 tournaments.

[covcaj]

I think for Louisiana to get a 12 seed, at lease three one-bid conferences where the current leader is higher ranked than Louisiana would have to have upsets. That's within the realm of possibility, though unlikely. To get an 11 seed, with Louisiana having only two wins against top 150 schools, is about at least as unlikely as me winning the lottery, and I don't play the lottery.

There are many predictions that I've seen that seem weird. People have Kansas over Texas Tech and I saw one that had Michigan State is a 3 seed? However, these are projections so they are projecting how these teams will finish which includes completion of the season. That is why this stuff shouldn't be taken too seriously at this point. Vermont won't be in if they don't win their tournament just like the Cajuns.

[Just1More]

You can, but I am not. Not winning the SBC tournament makes those projections useless.

You're projecting. We can't win the SBC tournament if we don't win the first game of the SBC tournament.

[talktomewillis]

Locations are not predicted. That is set well in advance.

http://www.ncaa.org/championships/fu...pionship-sites

I may not have done a good job of expressing. I was saying it's not locked in that the 12 seeds will definitely be in Boise and San Diego. If your link says otherwise, I didn't see it.

[Just1More]

Let’s win regular season first. We know we hang a banner if that occurs. Also gives us No. 1 seed in conference tournament. Texas State has lost lots of close games lately. Cajuns get out to lead on Thursday and they may have doubt set in

But Mike... I want to know who we're going to match up with in the Elite 8. Some of our guys have that information. They have sources.

[Just1More]

I may not have done a good job of expressing.

You should have consulted with CajunExpress.

[zephyr]

Not true regarding the play in games. The play in games have been 11 and 16 seeds for the last 3 tournaments.

What's not true? I said they've been popular. I didn't say they were the norm. Truth is over the years, seeds from 11 to 16 have been involved in the play in game scenario so its a moving target. The seed of four of the 8 play in teams is based on the overall seeds of the last four automatic bids accepted into the tournament.

[zephyr]

I think for Louisiana to get a 12 seed, at lease three one-bid conferences where the current leader is higher ranked than Louisiana would have to have upsets. That's within the realm of possibility, though unlikely. To get an 11 seed, with Louisiana having only two wins against top 150 schools, is about at least as unlikely as me winning the lottery, and I don't play the lottery.

Maybe but I'm not so sure. The committee seeds the entire field from 1-68. If our RPI and BPI keep getting stronger, those other teams may not have as much impact on our seeding as they would have in years past since our overall seed could be higher.

[talktomewillis]

Without oversimplifying (well, maybe I am)

A Middle Tennessee can get an eleven as an auto qualifier. But, traditionally the good auto qualifiers start at 12.

It's rare that you see a mid-major (besides Gonzaga, St. Marys et al) get something better than a 12 and REALLY rare that they get a ten.

Even if we win out, I don't see us being higher than a 12 seed.

There are a few auto qualifiers (NMSU, Loyola, Vermont) that are right there with us RPI wise. We are ahead of the rest.

In a perfect world, one or more of the above gets upset in their conference tournament and are replaced by teams with worse RPI's.

[snote]

FYI.. mark murphy on different notes 10a today
1420