Cajuns' Softball RPI

[GoneGolfin]

Does Aliceshoe's loss help our chances to host?

I discussed this ... in this very thread.

No ... it hurt.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

Thanks. Ironic need to play on road to proove u can host?

Road schedule is not going to keep the Cajuns away from a national seed. A little better OOC scheduling would have secured it ... but there is still a chance.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

Update after today's games ...

The latest RPIs of teams battling for the last national seed spots. Note that there are a few games that have not been played (scheduled for tomorrow), but they will have minimal impact.

Some caveats ...
1) I do not have the latest OOWP calculations. I am using calculated OOWP from the 5/7 NCAA report. However, I do not expect a significant change at this point in time. If a pair of teams are very close, it would make a difference and ranking positions could be swapped.

2) To calculate the RPI bonuses, you need to calculate the full Base RPI (all 295 teams). The only thing that can change with the RPI bonuses after the 5/7 report is if teams happen to slide tiers and those teams happen to be opponents of the below. Even if there are some changes, sometimes multiple changes cancel each other out. But it is certainly possible this could make a difference. As a reminder ...

.0028 RPI bonus points for each win vs. Base RPI 1->25
.0021 RPI bonus points for each win vs. Base RPI 26->50
.0014 RPI bonus points for each win vs. Base RPI 51->75

Thus, you are talking about .0007 (one way or another) for each team sliding a bonus tier ... except for the 51->75 tier, which would be .0014 on the downside.

RPI penalties do not come into play for these teams.

--

#13 James Madison .64634
#14 LSU .64223
#15 Alabama .63736
#16 Louisiana .63582
#17 Kentucky .63392
#18 Ole Miss .63112
#19 Utah .62800
#20 BYU .62605

BYU dropped a game today vs. woeful Saint Mary's ... hence the sharp drop. But I expect them to hold on to #20 as the teams behind them lost and there was a bit of a gap.

Might Louisiana (modest 3-2 vs. RPI Top 25) get the nod over Alabama (only 8-13 vs. RPI Top 25) due to their series win over the Crimson Tide if they finish #15/#16 in the RPI rankings? Is James Madison awarded a national seed due to their #13 RPI ranking, despite doing little vs. the RPI Top 25 (1-1) and possessing a bad loss on their resume (150+ RPI)?

Will the committee grant #18 Ole Miss a national seed due to their conference tournament championship, despite finishing 8th during the regular season with a 10-14 record (swept three times)? They went 11-14 vs. the RPI Top 25 and 15-17 vs. the RPI Top 50, but closed with 8 wins in their last 10 on their path to the SEC Tournament championship. At present, Ole Miss also has a bad loss on their resume vs. #157 North Dakota State. But it is possible that NDSU pushes into the RPI Top 150 after going 4-1 this week.

It seems that Utah is out of the discussion ... and Kentucky's thunder seems to have been stolen by Ole Miss.

Brian

Here is a crack at the latest RPIs of teams around the Cajuns battling for the last national seed spots.

Some caveats ...
1) I do not have the latest OOWP calculations. I am using OOWP from the 5/7 NCAA report. However, I do not expect a significant change at this point in time. If a pair of teams are very close, it would make a difference.

2) To calculate the RPI bonuses, you need to calculate the full Base RPI (all 295 teams). The only thing that can change with the RPI bonuses after the 5/7 report is if teams happen to slide tiers and those teams happen to be opponents of the below. Even if there are some changes, sometimes multiple changes cancel each other out. But it is certainly possible this could make a difference. As a reminder ...

.0028 RPI bonus points for each win vs. Base RPI 1->25
.0021 RPI bonus points for each win vs. Base RPI 26->50
.0014 RPI bonus points for each win vs. Base RPI 51->75

Thus, you are talking about .0007 (one way or another) for each team sliding a bonus tier ... except for the 51->75 tier, which would be .0014 on the downside.

RPI penalties do not come into play for these teams.

--

#13 James Madison .64643
#14 LSU .64493
#15 Alabama .63750
#16 Louisiana .63564
#17 Kentucky .63375
#18 BYU .63207
#19 Utah .63061
#20 Ole Miss .62903

Note: I expect BYU's RPI to fall as they have two remaining games against a weak opponent (#243 Saint Mary's 16-29).

There is still much remaining action that can affect this, most notably ...

Washington at Utah
LSU vs. Ole Miss

LSU can catch James Madison, which would be good for the Cajuns ... as it would bring James Madison's RPI rank closer to that of the Cajuns.

An Ole Miss win over LSU projects Ole Miss to .63140.

Might the Cajuns get the nod over Alabama due to their series win over the Crimson Tide? Might the committee go with Kentucky?

Brian

[RedBug58]

Update after today's games ...

The latest RPIs of teams battling for the last national seed spots. Note that there are a few games that have not been played (scheduled for tomorrow), but they will have minimal impact.

Some caveats ...
1) I do not have the latest OOWP calculations. I am using calculated OOWP from the 5/7 NCAA report. However, I do not expect a significant change at this point in time. If a pair of teams are very close, it would make a difference and ranking positions could be swapped.

2) To calculate the RPI bonuses, you need to calculate the full Base RPI (all 295 teams). The only thing that can change with the RPI bonuses after the 5/7 report is if teams happen to slide tiers and those teams happen to be opponents of the below. Even if there are some changes, sometimes multiple changes cancel each other out. But it is certainly possible this could make a difference. As a reminder ...

.0028 RPI bonus points for each win vs. Base RPI 1->25
.0021 RPI bonus points for each win vs. Base RPI 26->50
.0014 RPI bonus points for each win vs. Base RPI 51->75

Thus, you are talking about .0007 (one way or another) for each team sliding a bonus tier.

RPI penalties do not come into play for these teams.

--

#13 James Madison .64634
#14 LSU .64223
#15 Alabama .63736
#16 Louisiana .63582
#17 Kentucky .63392
#18 Ole Miss .63112
#19 Utah .62800
#20 BYU .62605

BYU dropped a game today vs. woeful Saint Mary's ... hence the sharp drop. But I expect them to hold on to #20 as the teams behind them lost and there was a bit of a gap.

Might Louisiana (modest 3-2 vs. RPI Top 25) get the nod over Alabama (only 8-13 vs. RPI Top 25) due to their series win over the Crimson Tide if they finish #15/#16 in the RPI rankings? Is James Madison awarded a national seed due to their #13 RPI ranking, despite doing little vs. the RPI Top 25 (1-1) and possessing a bad loss on their resume (150+ RPI)?

Will the committee grant #18 Ole Miss a national seed due to their conference tournament championship, despite finishing 8th during the regular season with a 10-14 record (swept three times)? They went 11-14 vs. the RPI Top 25 and 15-17 vs. the RPI Top 50, but closed with 8 wins in their last 10 on their path to the SEC Tournament championship. At present, Ole Miss also has a bad loss on their resume vs. #157 North Dakota State. But it is possible that NDSU pushes into the RPI Top 150 after going 4-1 this week.

It seems that Utah is out of the discussion ... and Kentucky's thunder seems to have been stolen by Ole Miss.

Brian

Wow! Really coming down to the wire. Will make tomorrow night very interesting!!!

[31Ragin97]

Road schedule is not going to keep the Cajuns away from a national seed. A little better OOC scheduling would have secured it ... but there is still a chance.

Brian

Sounds like a selfulfilling prophecy, why would those we are competing with for slot to host agree to play us if by them not playing us we are harmed, more irony in this system?

[CajunDreDog]

Reading this thread now is...I don't even have the words.

[Cajun90]

Final softball RPI......

See post below...... #'s in this post were incorrect.

[Cajun90]

see post below for corrections.

[BeauCajun]

Final softball RPI......

Cajuns at #19. We knew it would be borderline and it really shouldn't be a surprise that the Cajuns aren't hosting.

Minnesota at #12 and James Madison at #13 are much more troublesome.

That is incorrect. Per the NCAA RPI, we finished at #16.

[Cajun90]

That is incorrect. Per the NCAA RPI, we finished at #16.

Okay that is odd...... NCAA website updated the date and I refreshed it a couple of times and showed us at #19 on games through May 14th. Five minutes later it now shows us at #16. Apparently I caught it mid update.

[Cajun90]

So Kentucky, Ole Miss, and Utah at 17, 18, & 19 get the nod over Minnesota at #11, James Madison at #13, and Louisiana at #16.

This committee is going to get hammered badly and rightfully so. There are already letters flying off to committee members letting them know what they think about the selections.

It isn't that unusual for a #16 rpi team not to host but Minnesota not hosting is just baffling.

[GoneGolfin]

Okay that is odd...... NCAA website updated the date and I refreshed it a couple of times and showed us at #19 on games through May 14th. Five minutes later it now shows us at #16. Apparently I caught it mid update.

You did not pay attention to my pre-calculated RPI rankings for positions 13->20 that I released on Saturday (the purpose of this very thread). Shame on you. :-) I nailed all of them.

Brian