Baseball Swept In Doubleheader At UT Arlington

[cajundiehard]

I'm not giving out hope for an at-large. We all saw that they CAN win 9 straight. I was thinking going into UTA that we would be OK with 1 loss each to UTA, GA Southern, and Texas State. Well - we used up all our losses, so need to sweep remaining weekends. Difference is that we now have to make up 2.5 games vs. UTA and 1.5 vs. South Alabama... and I think South has the easiest row to hoe.

Guess we need to get that RPI into the 30's to feel we have a decent shot at an at-large without a conference championship.

[GoneGolfin]

For reference. We have failed to make the post season eight times since 1999 which is the first year of the 64 team field. Of those eight years most were pretty cut and dry with fairly poor records and thus fairly low RPI values.

The one year in question would be 2006 when we finished 39-20 with an RPI of 46. Strength of schedule that year was poor at 111 including conference games and a very poor 136 OOC.

The Cajuns' RPI ranking at selection time in 2006 was #55.

That year came down to some stolen bids (which is a crucial element to projecting at-large bids) and South Alabama scheduling that game against #6 Florida State after the Sun Belt Tournament ... having PJ Walters throw a ridiculous number of pitches ... beating the Seminoles (includes an RPI bonus) ... and moving up to #38 in the rankings. The committee made a decision to take the Jags over the Cajuns ... one that was driven by that 17 spot differential. This was despite the Cajuns having an advantage in all of the relevant metrics other than RPI ranking ... including finishing 2 1/2 games ahead of South Al in conference play (2nd place behind Troy) and eliminating the Jags from the conference tournament and splitting the season series.

Brian

[ManAboutTown]

I respectfully disagree- a little. I believe we are a "win-the-tournament-or-win-the-regular-season-title-(a long shot at best)-and-get-to-the-final-day of-the-tournament-or-stay-at-home" team.


What a burger.

You're asking .600 WP team to basically sweep the last 2 conference series in order to win the regular season title, and win .833% of its final games to even be in the top 50 RPI.

Georgia Southern is playing well, can hit, will feature a few soft tossing junker lefties, and has a very very good closer. I'm not saying we can't win the series, but I'll be shocked if we sweep. They are coming here to win, period.

I am not sold on our ability to compete when it really matters. I am also very worried about our overall health. I am also acutely aware that Nick Lee is crucial to this team's long term success and he is lost in the wilderness right now. We keep relying on the same guys to deliver and eventually, those guys will be human.

While the SBC is not as top heavy as it has been in past years, it is very competitive and wide open coming down the stretch. South Al has gotten much better, as has Geo Sou, UTA and even Troy.

I'll go on record as saying I do not believe this team will be playing in June. I also believe that staying home this year might be a good thing for this program because there have been hangers-on, etc that need to be replaced. I'm talking players and coaches. Just my opinion.

[Cajun90]

The Cajuns' RPI ranking at selection time in 2006 was #55.

That year came down to some stolen bids (which is a crucial element to projecting at-large bids) and South Alabama scheduling that game against #6 Florida State after the Sun Belt Tournament ... having PJ Walters throw a ridiculous number of pitches ... beating the Seminoles (includes an RPI bonus) ... and moving up to #38 in the rankings. The committee made a decision to take the Jags over the Cajuns ... one that was driven by that 17 spot differential. This was despite the Cajuns having an advantage in all of the relevant metrics other than RPI ranking ... including finishing 2 1/2 games ahead of South Al in conference play (2nd place behind Troy) and eliminating the Jags from the conference tournament and splitting the season series.

Brian

Yeah in my hurry i pulled srpi data from year end and not selection time.

[GoneGolfin]

The Cajuns' RPI ranking at selection time in 2006 was #55.

That year came down to some stolen bids (which is a crucial element to projecting at-large bids) and South Alabama scheduling that game against #6 Florida State after the Sun Belt Tournament ... having PJ Walters throw a ridiculous number of pitches ... beating the Seminoles (includes an RPI bonus) ... and moving up to #38 in the rankings. The committee made a decision to take the Jags over the Cajuns ... one that was driven by that 17 spot differential. This was despite the Cajuns having an advantage in all of the relevant metrics other than RPI ranking ... including finishing 2 1/2 games ahead of South Al in conference play (2nd place behind Troy) and eliminating the Jags from the conference tournament and splitting the season series.

I should also note that in 2006, #57 San Diego (3rd place in the WCC) and #51 San Francisco (1st place in the WCC) both made the field as at-large teams.

Brian

[cajundiehard]

I should also note that in 2006, #57 San Diego (3rd place in the WCC) and #51 San Francisco (1st place in the WCC) both made the field as at-large teams.

Brian

So would you feel decently good about Cajun at-large chances if they can get RPI into the 30s, even if they fall short of conference championship, finishing in the top 3?

[ManAboutTown]

So would you feel decently good about Cajun at-large chances if they can get RPI into the 30s, even if they fall short of conference championship, finishing in the top 3?

Not with a SOS of 90+

[GoneGolfin]

So would you feel decently good about Cajun at-large chances if they can get RPI into the 30s, even if they fall short of conference championship, finishing in the top 3?

In the 30's and Top 3? Absolutely. 40's is a possibility depending on the number of conference tournament upsets. They will need at least a split with LTU and McNeese to do this. This would solidify their record vs. the RPI Top 50.

Brian