Baseball Prognostications

[cajundiehard]

Brian - Tulane looks like a good bet for an at-large. What are at-large chances for SLU, Sam Houston, Northwestern State, LA Tech, and South Alabama? Assuming none of these teams win their conference tournament?

Also - With the Cajuns looking like a strong #2, I would think they would keep UL away from College Station and Oxford. I'm guessing Starkville or less likely Baton Rouge.

Lots of potential Louisiana teams in regionals this year...

Thanks!

[CajunDreDog]

SEC likely gonna have 4 national seeds, and 7 teams hosting.

[GoneGolfin]

Brian - Tulane looks like a good bet for an at-large. What are at-large chances for SLU, Sam Houston, Northwestern State, LA Tech, and South Alabama? Assuming none of these teams win their conference tournament?

Also - With the Cajuns looking like a strong #2, I would think they would keep UL away from College Station and Oxford. I'm guessing Starkville or less likely Baton Rouge.

Lots of potential Louisiana teams in regionals this year...

Thanks!

If #33 Tulane can beat Houston tonight (they lead Houston 4-3 B8th), they will finish as the AAC regular season champion. If they do ok in the conference tournament, I think they have a good shot at a #2 seed. They should be a lock for an at-large bid.

#45 Sam Houston has won the SLC regular season title and is on the bubble. What hurts them? 3-9 vs. the RPI Top 50 and 10-13 vs. the RPI Top 100. This will make it tough. They need to play well in the SLC Tournament to have a chance and hopefully log some wins against SLU and Northwestern State (Top 50 RPI teams).

#46 SLU pooped in their bed this weekend getting swept on the road vs. Central Arkansas and have lost five of their last six. They also lost the SLC regular season title this weekend. They are a respectable 7-7 vs. the RPI Top 50 and 13-12 vs. the RPI Top 100. But I cannot fathom them making the field as an at-large before Sam Houston. SLU better be making plans to win the SLC tournament.

#41 Northwestern State finished fourth in the SLC and is 3-14 vs. the RPI Top 50 and 7-17 vs. the RPI Top 100. This is another example of a school that is not as good as their RPI. The Demons need to win the SLC Tournament.

#38 Louisiana Tech finished 5th in CUSA and closed strong with a home sweep of a reeling Rice team and have won 19 of their last 23 games. The Bulldogs are a fine 8-3 vs. the RPI Top 50 and 15-9 vs. the RPI Top 100. Tech opens with Rice (but at a neutral site this time) in the CUSA Tournament and is on the same side of the bracket with #1 Florida Atlantic. Tech's chances are decent even if they go 0-2 in the tournament. But win a couple and they leave no doubt. Win the CUSA Tournament and they have a shot at a #2 seed.

#44 South Alabama likes to do it the hard way. They were a practical lock three weeks ago, hunting for seeding. Now they must settle as co-champions of the Sun Belt (which still helps) and are the #2 seed in the Sun Belt Tournament. South Alabama is a solid 5-4 vs. the RPI Top 50 and 14-9 vs. the RPI Top 100. They are on the bubble, but I would have them in at the moment. Anything less than a tournament title game appearance and they will be sweating the selection show ... and potentially be left out like their softball team.

The NCAA is not necessarily going to look at the Cajuns as a strong #2 seed and try to pair them with a weaker #1 seed. They might ... but geographical placement also matters ... and it will depend on whom makes the field, where they are likely to be seeded, and where it makes sense for them to go ... all on the context of the <= 400 mile bus trip.

I do not have #6 Ole Miss as a national seed, just a #1 seed. #11 Mississippi State is a lock for a national seed as is #4 Texas A&M. #9 LSU is an ordinary #1 seed. Now, the SEC Tournament Championship can change this ... but this is what we have at the moment. I see any of the four as a possibility ... with LSU the most likely. I would like to see us in Oxford.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

SEC likely gonna have 4 national seeds, and 7 teams hosting.

At the moment I have Florida, Mississippi State, Texas A&M, and South Carolina as National Seeds ... and LSU, Ole Miss, and Vanderbilt as #1 seeds hosting.

Brian

[cajundiehard]

Thanks!

Any outside shot for the Cajuns hosting? It looks pretty tight up to RPI of #13.

[GoneGolfin]

Thanks!

Any outside shot for the Cajuns hosting? It looks pretty tight up to RPI of #13.

Outside shot, yes. Win the Sun Belt tournament and make it tougher for the committee. I think they would need to have a #13 RPI ranking and help from others. That 0-4 vs. RPI Top 25 looks bad when compared to the other resumes. Teams that have better overall resumes at the moment ...

#1 Louisville
#2 Florida
#3 Miami
#4 Texas A&M
#5 South Carolina
#6 Ole Miss
#7 North Carolina State
#8 Vanderbilt
#9 LSU
#10 Clemson
#11 Mississippi State
#12 Texas Tech
#13 Virginia
#14 Coastal Carolina
#16 TCU
#17 Florida State
#22 Florida Atlantic (did not submit a bid to host ... but can be a #1 seed)

#20 Georgia Tech is close ... but like #15 North Carolina, I think they will not host due to conference finish. UNC, despite its gaudy RPI may not make the selection field due to an 11th place conference finish.

The wild card might be #39 Cal State-Fullerton and #26 Arizona. CSF is 4-2 vs. the RPI Top 25 (including a series win over Texas Tech). They are much better than their RPI indicates and will likely be a conference champion of the #8 RPI conference. They also have a chance to improve their RPI as they close with #42 Long Beach State. I could easily see a western regional in Fullerton.

The Cajuns need some help.

Brian

[Cajunfanatico]

I think it's a very long shot at this point for the Cajun to host a regional. Now, win whatever regional we're playing in and I would imagine we'd have a decent shot at hosting a super.

[GeauxCajuns]

I think it's a very long shot at this point for the Cajun to host a regional. Now, win whatever regional we're playing in and I would imagine we'd have a decent shot at hosting a super.

Not how that works...
The SR we would be paired with the host couldn't win, and even after that it wouldn't be a lock.

[Cajunfanatico]

Not how that works...
The SR we would be paired with the host couldn't win, and even after that it wouldn't be a lock.

Well, that's actually what I was talking about. If two paired regionals both have the host team lose, then someone who wasn't seeded or hosting will get a super, no? I realize it's unlikely, but I would imagine it's happened before.

[cajun4life]

Man I'd love to host and have Tulane as a #2.