BB 2016: Hosting or Not?

[MiamiCajun32]

House of Sparky's field of 64 projections have Cajuns as #1 seed, but traveling to Fullerton. The ole house of sparky projection:

http://www.houseofsparky.com/2016/5/...ate-louisville

[MiamiCajun32]

House of Sparky's field of 64 projections have Cajuns as #1 seed, but traveling to Fullerton. The ole house of sparky projection:

http://www.houseofsparky.com/2016/5/...ate-louisville

traveling to Long Beach, not fullerton.

[ManAboutTown]

I agree that BA may be smoking something... but not for the reasons you point out.

I didn't point out any reasons.

I don't see UL AND Tulane both getting host spots. And I think LSU is going to be a National Seed unless they fail in the SEC Tourney. They listed Virginia as getting the last Natty Seed over LSU because they finished 3rd in the #1 RPI Conference. I don't think that's a strong enough case. LSU played a much tougher non-conference schedule (shocking I know, with the cupcakes they usually schedule) than did Virginia. LSU's NonConf RPI is 19 and NC SOS 53. Virginia NonConf RPI is 59 and NC SOS 96. I think LSU gets the nod here...

No one thinks that. It's kind of the point.

And about your comment concerning the Cajuns barely having a chance? You are way off base my friend. Logistically, the Cajuns are set up very well with a legitimate case to host at this point. Everything changed the minute we gained a share of the Sun Belt Regular Season Crown and Southern Miss got swept. As Brian points out, sure we have an 0-4 record vs. Top 25 RPI. But we are also 11-9 against the Top 50. The committee will view the Top 50 performance as a very good thing. Also, our NonConf SOS is #1 and our NC RPI is #7. The numbers don't lie, and the committee has shown in years past to almost rely on the numbers to a fault at times. This is where it will help us.

So we're average against top 50 teams and 0-4 against the top tier group of 25, and you think that won't matter to the committee? Not to mention, at least 3 of those teams are in danger of falling out of the RPI top 50 this week. If a couple of upsets happen in the SBC tournament and we ended playing RPI 140+ teams, that's not going to help our resume' or our cause much. Even if we go undefeated. Everything didn't "change" with a regular season championship. It helped a lot, but it didn't transform our resume'. Couple that with South Al crapping the bed and you get a rather watered down argument. I'm trying to see this through the eyes of people that aren't wearing red.

Regardless of what you think of the Cajuns full season performance... at the end of the day... we finished very hot and made a statement by taking 2 of 3 from South Alabama to vault us to the top of the League standings. If we then go and win the Conference Tourney, we are a virtual LOCK to host a regional.

My thoughts on the season are this: It's been a good stretch run, and I'm glad the pitching staff is healthy and ready to go. Still, a series win at South Al doesn't erase the fact that we're merely average against our peer group (which is 20-50 if you go by the full season evidence). It doesn't matter what Cajun fans think. It matters what the committee thinks, and on paper, I don't see the evidence. Now, if we go out and beat South Al and Troy a couple times, that helps. Still, its an outside chance.

First thing's first though, let's go take care of business this week. None of this will matter if we go 0-2 in the tourney.

No matter what happens this week, we're no where close to a lock to host. That's crazy talk.

[wcd35]

D1Baseball's new projection:

http://www.d1baseball.com/projection...eball64052416/

Lafayette Regional:
Louisiana
Utah
Tulane
Sam Houston St

[CajunAlum10]

No matter what happens this week, we're no where close to a lock to host. That's crazy talk.

I'm not being biased when I say this. Forget what I think. Do you care at all what the College Baseball gurus are saying? Aaron Fitt and Kendall Rogers are saying the same stuff I'm saying, and they aren't UL alums.

Obviously our Top 50 opponents need to remain in the top 50. Go read the D1Baseball Chat from yesterday for some thoughts from those experts. It might change your mind a little bit.

I get that you're being cautiously optimistic. I'm not trying to say we are golden at this point, just saying that if we go 4-0 in tourney, we won't "barely have a chance" as you stated. Our RPI is already good, with 4 more wins and no losses, it'll likely be a couple spots higher and we'll have won the regular season and tournament championships. And we have recent history and success in the postseason having made back to back Supers. We sell out our park on a regular basis and brought massive numbers to our Regional in 2014. The NCAA will look at all of this stuff. I just think you're not giving us enough credit and you're still wearing those yellow glasses from early season when we sucked. Time to put the red glasses back on bud. Get it? We hate yellow in our logo.

[ManAboutTown]

I'm not being biased when I say this. Forget what I think. Do you care at all what the College Baseball gurus are saying? Aaron Fitt and Kendall Rogers are saying the same stuff I'm saying, and they aren't UL alums.

Obviously our Top 50 opponents need to remain in the top 50. Go read the D1Baseball Chat from yesterday for some thoughts from those experts. It might change your mind a little bit.

I get that you're being cautiously optimistic. I'm not trying to say we are golden at this point, just saying that if we go 4-0 in tourney, we won't "barely have a chance" as you stated. Our RPI is already good, with 4 more wins and no losses, it'll likely be a couple spots higher and we'll have won the regular season and tournament championships. And we have recent history and success in the postseason having made back to back Supers. We sell out our park on a regular basis and brought massive numbers to our Regional in 2014. The NCAA will look at all of this stuff. I just think you're not giving us enough credit and you're still wearing those yellow glasses from early season when we sucked. Time to put the red glasses back on bud. Get it? We hate yellow in our logo.

This is where I believe a lot of our fans are getting it wrong. I don't think our history will matter to the committee. (It's also why I think a lot of people are putting us over the hump with hosting). Strictly looking at the numbers, I don't see a number one seed. Especially compared to other host resume's, except for Tulane. Tulane is a good example of record against top 25 teams mattering. They're 8-2, and I believe thats the ONLY practical reason why their name is coming up in the host conversation.

Here's another thing: We haven't been automatic in SBC tourney play. We're acting like this team will walk through San Marcos. Way too many variables still in play, including geography, other teams results, and our own. D1baseball has Utah in the field of our imaginary regional, which is pretty unbelievable if you go and look at their resume'. They did sweep Zona, but other than that, not too impressive. RPI 100 and sub .500 record.

Guys, I hope like hell I'm wrong. I want nothing more than to spend Regionals at the Tigue. I just disagree with a lot that's out there right now.

[CajunJack55]

I don't think our history will matter to the committee.

I agree we have a lot of work to do and the sun belt tourney is definitely going to be tough to win, but a teams history definitely matters to the committee. When you show you can play and beat the big boys you get rewarded.

[Rebel02]

This is where I believe a lot of our fans are getting it wrong. I don't think our history will matter to the committee. (It's also why I think a lot of people are putting us over the hump with hosting). Strictly looking at the numbers, I don't see a number one seed. Especially compared to other host resume's, except for Tulane. Tulane is a good example of record against top 25 teams mattering. They're 8-2, and I believe thats the ONLY practical reason why their name is coming up in the host conversation.

Here's another thing: We haven't been automatic in SBC tourney play. We're acting like this team will walk through San Marcos. Way too many variables still in play, including geography, other teams results, and our own. D1baseball has Utah in the field of our imaginary regional, which is pretty unbelievable if you go and look at their resume'. They did sweep Zona, but other than that, not too impressive. RPI 100 and sub .500 record.

Guys, I hope like hell I'm wrong. I want nothing more than to spend Regionals at the Tigue. I just disagree with a lot that's out there right now.

Utah is in the field as the automatic bid from the PAC 12, not because of their resume.

[ManAboutTown]

Utah is in the field as the automatic bid from the PAC 12, not because of their resume.

So they won the Pac 12 championship?

[wcd35]

This is where I believe a lot of our fans are getting it wrong. I don't think our history will matter to the committee. (It's also why I think a lot of people are putting us over the hump with hosting). Strictly looking at the numbers, I don't see a number one seed. Especially compared to other host resume's, except for Tulane. Tulane is a good example of record against top 25 teams mattering. They're 8-2, and I believe thats the ONLY practical reason why their name is coming up in the host conversation.

Here's another thing: We haven't been automatic in SBC tourney play. We're acting like this team will walk through San Marcos. Way too many variables still in play, including geography, other teams results, and our own. D1baseball has Utah in the field of our imaginary regional, which is pretty unbelievable if you go and look at their resume'. They did sweep Zona, but other than that, not too impressive. RPI 100 and sub .500 record.

Guys, I hope like hell I'm wrong. I want nothing more than to spend Regionals at the Tigue. I just disagree with a lot that's out there right now.

Utah is currently leading the Pac 12. They'd get in as champs. Not sure if you're saying its unbelievable that they're in the field or sent to us

To deflate Tulane's resume vs Top 25, we should root against Arizona, USM and ECU. Arizona is at #25 and could fall out just from playing Abilene Christian and Hawaii. USM is at at #21. ECU is on border at #24. Taking those teams out of Top 25 makes Tulane 3-1 vs top 25 with the one loss vs us. Tightens the gap somewhat

Also, keeping Southeastern in the top 50 helps us and hurts them. SLU went 2-0 vs Tulane and 1-2 vs us.

[Rebel02]

So they won the Pac 12 championship?

Not yet. They have a 1 game lead on UW, who they host this weekend in a de facto championship. Winner of the series gets the auto bid as the league does not play a tournament.

[Boomer]

The next 2 weeks and beyond, if we are still playing will be war----and the girls have already been in huge battles to conquer as D-Day comes with the invasion of NORMANdy!!! Hey if that is spelled correctly I might have a writing career!!!