At this level, and our numbers over the last 5 years suggest this, is that we will have to score in the 30's to win games on average. Our best defensive numbers over the last X number of years has been an OPG of 26 PPG. In the last 5 years where we've had our most consistent success, we've averaged 30+ PPG in just about every year except last year. At the G5 level, I think its safe to say that we just aren't going to recruit the high profile defensive players that will cater to a shutdown defense. Its easier to recruit offense at our level rather than defense.
I think you are taking what I'm saying to extremes. I'm not saying that we can't have a defense that makes plays and is effective but what I am suggesting is that it is not necessarily logical to expect a defense to shut opponents down, especially in today's spread offense world and rules that cater to promoting offense in the game. During Bustle's tenure, our defensive numbers were horrible as we often allowed 35+ PPG routinely which meant we had to outscore opponents.
With HUD, he has brought in enough athletes to where our defense has routinely given up less than 30 PPG. To me, if you can hold opponents in the 25-26PPG range, you can be successful but our offense barely put up enough points last year to make that matter. Scoring in the 30's is not necessarily outscoring people, its actually the norm these days.
Those are some easy words to say, but some very difficult expectations to realize. It isn't that "you think" we need... "you know" we need... more physical talent on the lines. I do not think that solves everything... but without it... we kind of know we aren't going to do much better than last year.
There is no substitute for talent. But let us not forget the pathetic coaching on offense last year. Player personnel decisions alone were atrocious. I hope we're healed up and stay that way, we picked up the right JUCO help, we are conditioned better, our studs are used properly this year, and we have no more "distractions".
I was expecting better things in years 5-8 than in years 1-4... if we kept Hud. Now I think most of us have recalibrated our expectations to a return to years 1-4. So much has to be better than last year... it boggles my mind.
I understand what your saying and it's easy to have low expectations after a bad year just like expectations are high after a good year. History tells me that a team can dramatically improve from one year to the next. See 2007-2008 and 2010-2011. A lot has to happen but I don't think it's as tough a feat as what most are expecting. I think we have the players to do it.
I absolutely agree with you (about turning around seasons on a dime). I don't know about the talent - just because I simply do not know. But good talent can be coached into a ball of crap. I don't actually have a definable expectation. I know we are somewhere between a 9-3 and a 3-9 football program. "Expectation" takes a big back seat to "Realization" once the first game is underway.
I do hope our players stay healthy this year and our coaches give them every chance to win.
There are currently 11 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 11 guests)