Latest Bowl Projections

[CajunProud]

_ Everyone is predicting doom and gloom in 2010, I am not sure why. We still play a SBC schedule that includes potential wins like this year of:

UNT, ASU, WKU and ULM, not to mention a potential win at FIU a team we should have defeated this year. I realize Troy will be reloading, but they do lose Levi Brown and Bear Woods and Boris Lee. Ohio will not be as good as they were this year.

I think potential wins are:
FIU, WKU, UNT, ULM, ASU

Definite loses are:
Troy, Georgia, Miss, OSU

???? are:
FAU, Ohio and Middle

Again, I think all SBC games are potential wins, minus Troy, who is heads and shoulders better then the rest of the conference, but why cry misery, when we have at minimum 6-7 potential wins next year. I don't see why we can't be back in the same position next year.

Do we have a chance to be 9-3, no, do we have a chance to be 7-5, yes.

For all of you doom and gloomers, take it somewhere else, this is still my team, my school and I will always go into every season with optimism that this is the year that we get over the hump. _

4 wins was being optimistic. Have you not been to any games over the last several years where we are clearly outcoached in the second half?

[DrumRoll]

_ Incorrect. 6-6 teams are obligated to fulfill their conference tie-ins (if available) before any at-large selections are made. At 7-5, our only options would have been EagleBank (assuming Army loses), Little Caesars, or Humanitarian. The Humanitarian Bowl would have had to take Bowling Green to avoid a MAC vs MAC match-up in the Little Caesars Bowl. Then the Little Caesar's Bowl would have been forced to take us as the only available team with a winning record. It would have been UL vs Ohio. The EagleBank would be in the same position waiting for the Army game to play out. If Army loses, they would have had to choose between Marshall and UCLA. My guess is that they would choose Marshall due to proximity, and UCLA, Notre Dame, and ULM would be the only bowl eligible teams sitting at home. _

I was thinking that the NCAA has a rule requiring all 7 win teams to be selected prior to a 6 win team...

[CajunAmos]

I was thinking that the NCAA has a rule requiring all 7 win teams to be selected prior to a 6 win team...

They do.

[GeauxCajuns]

_ They do. _

i dont think that is true....in our situation one of our "tie-ins" has to take a 7-5 sun belt team over another team, but in general if there is no tie in, a bowl can select to take any bowl eligible team they want. i dont think 7-5 gets a nod over 6-6 unless tie ins are involved.

[CajunAmos]

i dont think that is true....in our situation one of our "tie-ins" has to take a 7-5 sun belt team over another team, but in general if there is no tie in, a bowl can select to take any bowl eligible team they want. i dont think 7-5 gets a nod over 6-6 unless tie ins are involved.

Sorry, I thought the NCAA had mandated taking all 7-5 eligible teams before taking any 6-6 teams.

EDITED. I pulled this from Wikipedia, and it seems to indicate that 7-5 teams have to be selected before even bowl tie-in 6-6 teams, although I may be misunderstanding the verbage.

On April 26, 2006, the NCAA announced that they were relaxing the rules for eligibility starting with the 2006 season, particularly in light of the new 12 game college football season. Now, teams with .500 records can qualify for bowl games if their conference has a contract with a bowl game. Also, teams with .500 records (i.e. 6–6) could earn bowl bids if all other FBS teams with winning records have been taken and postseason spots still remain vacant. In thirteen-game seasons (used because of conference championship games, or allowable when a team from the U.S. mainland plays at Hawaiʻi), a team must win seven games.[3]

Occasionally there will be more bowl eligible teams than there are spots in the NCAA football bowl games in the season. In these cases, some bowl eligible teams will not be invited to play in any NCAA football bowl game. Typically, teams with seven or more wins will not be left out of bowl games, although many seasons, most recently 2007, see at least one such team uninvited. One of the main rules regarding bowl eligibility, NCAA Division I Bylaw 30.9.2.1, has several provisions that attempt to ensure that teams with seven wins will receive preference for bowl bids:[4]

Bowl games that have a contract with a conference must select a team with at least seven wins if one is available.
Any bowl berths that become eligible when a conference fails to meet its contracted tie-ins must first be filled by any eligible 7-win teams before any remaining FBS 6–6 teams can be accommodated.
Additionally, conferences are not allowed to sign contingency agreements with bowl games that would allow 6–6 teams from their conferences to receive bowl berths at the expense of any potential team with seven or more wins. While this does not prevent conferences from signing contingency agreements that are triggered when a second conference is unable to provide enough eligible teams to fill all of its contracted berths, it does not allow a 6–6 team from the contingency conference access to a bowl game over a 7-win team from a third conference.

[checkmate]

_ I was thinking that the NCAA has a rule requiring all 7 win teams to be selected prior to a 6 win team... _

No. If a bowl has a tie-in with a conference, that bowl must take a team from that conference if they have a bowl eligible team, even if they are 6-6.

Take the Independence Bowl for example. They had to choose between Texas A&M (6-6) and Iowa State (6-6) to line-up opposite Georgia due to contractual obligations. They could not have taken UL, ULM, or UCLA if they wanted to...

After that, contingency bids must be filled. Contingency bids are only valid if a bowl has a spot that cannot be filled by the primary contract and if the contingency conference(s) have at least 1 team with at least 7 wins.

The only contingency bid that was filled was for the EagleBank Bowl. Since the ACC did not have an available bowl eligible team, they were obligated to take a MAC team with a winning record.

After all contractual obligations are met, the bowls must then select from the pool of teams with at least 7 wins. This season, there was only 1 team in that pool, Bowling Green. The only bowls with open slots were the Humanitarian, Little Caesars, and EagleBank (if Army loses to Navy). Since the MAC already had a team in the Little Caesars Bowl and the EagleBank's status is unknown, the Humanitarian Bowl was forced to invite Bowling Green.

After all teams with winning records were placed, the available spots are opened up to the 6-6 bowl eligible pool of Notre Dame, UCLA, Marshall, UL, and ULM. Notre Dame refused to play a MAC team (Ohio) in Detroit. The Little Caesar's Bowl then selected Marshall, Ohio's traditional rival. They played every year from 1905 through 2004 before Marshall joined C-USA.

Now we have to wait for the Army-Navy result to see who gets the final bid to the EagleBank Bowl. Army is contracted if they win, and UCLA has been told they will receive the invite if Army loses.

In the end, we are sitting at home with ULM and the Irish.

[checkmate]

_ Sorry, I thought the NCAA had mandated taking all 7-5 eligible teams before taking any 6-6 teams.

EDITED. I pulled this from Wikipedia, and it seems to indicate that 7-5 teams have to be selected before even bowl tie-in 6-6 teams, although I may be misunderstanding the verbage.

On April 26, 2006, the NCAA announced that they were relaxing the rules for eligibility starting with the 2006 season, particularly in light of the new 12 game college football season. Now, teams with .500 records can qualify for bowl games if their conference has a contract with a bowl game. Also, teams with .500 records (i.e. 6–6) could earn bowl bids if all other FBS teams with winning records have been taken and postseason spots still remain vacant. In thirteen-game seasons (used because of conference championship games, or allowable when a team from the U.S. mainland plays at Hawaiʻi), a team must win seven games.[3]

Occasionally there will be more bowl eligible teams than there are spots in the NCAA football bowl games in the season. In these cases, some bowl eligible teams will not be invited to play in any NCAA football bowl game. Typically, teams with seven or more wins will not be left out of bowl games, although many seasons, most recently 2007, see at least one such team uninvited. One of the main rules regarding bowl eligibility, NCAA Division I Bylaw 30.9.2.1, has several provisions that attempt to ensure that teams with seven wins will receive preference for bowl bids:[4]

Bowl games that have a contract with a conference must select a team with at least seven wins if one is available.
Any bowl berths that become eligible when a conference fails to meet its contracted tie-ins must first be filled by any eligible 7-win teams before any remaining FBS 6–6 teams can be accommodated.
Additionally, conferences are not allowed to sign contingency agreements with bowl games that would allow 6–6 teams from their conferences to receive bowl berths at the expense of any potential team with seven or more wins. While this does not prevent conferences from signing contingency agreements that are triggered when a second conference is unable to provide enough eligible teams to fill all of its contracted berths, it does not allow a 6–6 team from the contingency conference access to a bowl game over a 7-win team from a third conference. _

Email that to Wright Waters.