Bustle: The difference between 6 and 7 wins is not monumental. Though 7 wins would guarantee a bowl game and cash, 6 wins is nothing to complain about, especially for the Cajuns. Remember, the Cajuns have won 6 games in 3 of the last four seasons. Furthermore, prior to Bustle, the Cajuns regularly won 3-4 games a year. The Cajuns sacked Jerry Baldwin for winning 3 to 4 games a year, which sent the message the Cajuns expected more than 3 wins a season. If the Cajuns were to fire Bustle, it would send the message the Cajuns want to win more than 6 games - which is exactly the message the Cajuns want. However, exactly who do the Cajuns get? Bustle wins twice as many games as Baldwin and now gets fired. What message does that send? Are the Cajuns ready to fire a man because he lost 1 game?
The Cajuns must, for budget sake, play 2 money games, leaving the Cajuns 10 chances to win 7, the number needed to guarantee a bowl bid. Of those 10, 8 are from the conference, where UNT and WKU remain the only guaranteed wins (Cajuns now have 2 wins, and need only 5 more to get to a bowl game). The two remaining OOC games must be guaranteed wins. NC A&T can be one, and the second should be a guaranteed win against a MAC team or CUSA team. No more reaches like Kansas State, Houston, UTEP, or Oklahoma State. Those games, 99% of the time, are losses, and moral victories do not get the Cajuns to New Orleans. A constant schedule of 4 easy wins (2 conference and 2 OOC) will give the Cajuns 6 chances to win 3 more games to get to 7 wins.
The situation of firing Bustle and hiring a new coach is more complicated because no SBC coach has jumped from the SBC to a head coaching job in a better conference. Even Troyīs coach, despite their wins in bowl games and against Missouri, etc, has never received any interest from a bigger conference. Bustle wonīt either. If Bustle were to be fired, his replacement likely wouldnīt receive interest. UL, as is the case with every SBC job, is not a stepping stone. If anything, itīs a dead end. As such, UL, if it fires Bustle, will not receive interest in an up and coming OC or DC from a top 25 team (Bustle was OC for a top 25, Virginia Tech). Dan Mullen, the OC for Florida during the Urban Meyer years, parlayed his success in calling plays for Tim Tebow into a job at Mississippi State, where he will most certainly fail, as somoene has to lose SEC games.
Firing Bustle will allow UL to start all over -- again. The expectations will be driven down as fans will say the coach needs a few years to get his players, and UL is back to step 1. Bustle may not have any idea where the program is going, but itīs better than Baldwinīs, firing Bustle would be self destructive from a Cajuns standpoint, and the job is not nearly as appealing as Cajuns fans think, meaning the Cajuns would likely get a replacement who is just like the man they fired.
Verdict: Unless someone better comes screaming for the job (unlikely), sticking with Bustle might be the Cajuns only option.
Rogers: Despite having no bargaining power (smaller conference, no TV, worse facilities) when the Bearcats came asking for J Kelly Hall, David Walker only matched the Bearcats offer, showing J. Kelly Hall the Cajuns wanted him just as much as the Bearcats. Hall wisely took the bigger job, with more TV, and more money for his program. After turning around the Cajuns, Hall was a hot commodity, and Walker didnīt know how to negotiate and lost his best and most successful coach. Hall, who, when he started as coach of the Cajuns, often had a year to year contract, until finally being rewarded with a 4 year deal, was replaced by Rogers, who was immediately, despite not having any experience, given a 4 year deal. Rogers currently has two years left on his deal.
Though womenīs basketball does not make any money, Rogers contract financially restricts the Cajuns ability to relieve him of his duties. Rogers has successfully taken a program which went to the NCAA tournament as an at-large 11 seed and dragged it to 3-27 with overtime wins against 1AA schools.
Hall, as a male in a sport where female coaches are preferred, will likely return to being a head coach somewhere like UL or be a top assistant at a bigger program and make the same salary. If, after Rogers is fired, Hall is available, the Cajuns should make every effort to hire him and pay him better. Before he left, Hall was, according to the Daily Advertiser, earning 82,000. Bump it up to 100,000 and try to get back to the NCAA tournament.
Verdict: Avoid paying Rogers buyout (which is expensive), as UL has no other option for a HC, but fire him midway through his final season. Send the message to recruits failure is not acceptable, and begin the search process for a new coach, hopefully Hall.
Lee: Leeīs time as head coach has been less than impressive. Using players brought in during Evans tenure, Lee went to NCAA tournament, and found a way to lose a game he was winning. Once he got his recruits, the results have been horrible. Lee claims the players are good people (that sells tickets), and they are graduating (also sells tickets). Such may be the case, but each year, the win total decreases as does the season ticket holder pool.
The Cajuns are no longer competitive in the SBC, one of the worst conferences in college basketball. During his tenure, the Cajuns have not made it past the first round of the SBC tournament (save 2005). No player recruited by Lee has played professional basketball (Evans had Greene, Southhall, Mitchell and Hamilton). The Cajuns rarely finish their OOC slate with a winning record and the Cajuns rarely crack .500 in one of the worst 7 conferences in the nation.
When and if the Cajuns fire Lee, the job will not attract much attention from good coaches with HC experience. Consider: the season ticket holder base is almost gone, the Cajuns use buses to travel, the university has made a commitment to shut-out transfer players (though it accepts numerous non-tradition academic students without a problem), the SBC is a one bid league and WKU is the automatic bid just about every year, and the Cajuns because of poor fundraising will not be able to offer a competitive salary, and most top recruits in Louisiana go to LSU or other schools.
Verdict: Fire Lee after his first conference loss this season. Leeīs win the right way (lose the right way) process is not working, and itīs now year six. Begin the search process early.
Evans: Though Evans recruited people with questionable character and according to some wasnīt a good X and O coach, he won games (if he was bad at X and O, how did he win?). His winning teams always filled the building as UL was often in the top 100 in attendance, thereby refuting any claim his teams with questionable character did not attract attention.
Cajuns basketball fans have tipped their hand as Leeīs lose with character teams have caused attendance to drop while Evans with win with transfers cause attendance to rise. Cajuns fans have shown winning -- even with transfers -- is more enticing than losing with four year players.
His teams regularly played on national television (twice a year in the end of his career), his players went to the pros (Greene once told the Vermilion he had no interest in UL until his mother told him Evans was a good coach), and his teams went to the postseason, where they were a bad call (Tennessee) away from the 2nd round in 2000, and a volume-shooting guard (Brad Boyd) from the 2nd round in 2004.
Evans, despite his terrible contract situation, still recruited well for UL, landing good players (Mitchell and Greene) despite having 1 year on his contract. His move to USF was questionable as USF only offered more money. USF and the Cajuns are in one bid conferences.
Verdict: Time to move on, absolutely. But donīt forget Evans was the reason for success in Cajun basketball in the 2000s and late 90s. If heīs interested in the job after Lee is fired, see what Evans wants. But, he likely wonīt be interesting in a university that was upset with a winning record, high attendance and consistent postseason play.
Re: Bustle, Lee, Rogers
Originally Posted by CajunNation
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