Catching up with the CWS ...
Certainly no suprises to me thus far. As we have talked about before (on Jay's show and on the boards), the SEC is the deepest baseball conference in the country. But the teams at the top of the SEC are not among the best teams in the country this year. South Carolina and LSU were clearly outclassed by the West. It is a shame that Arizona State and Long Beach State were paired against CSF and Stanford in the super-regionals. You likely would have had three, maybe four teams from the West in the CWS. The NCAA really missed the mark on national seeds this year (as well as a number of other things). Rice is the highest national seed remaining in the CWS, at #5. #1, #3, and #4 never made it to the CWS, while #2 was two and barbecue. Not very impressive for the committee. Look for some real changes in the selection process for next year (I have heard some specific rumblings that might become more clear in the offseason).
Cal State-Fullerton and Rice are really looking good right now. These teams have the best pitching staffs in the country in addition to being in the winner's bracket after two games. If Rice or CSF were in the loser's bracket fighting their way back, I would still give them a decent chance due to their immense pitching depth (especially Rice). But with Stanford, Texas, and Miami not having deep staffs, it will be extremely difficult for any of them to advance to the finals. Not that it cannot be done. But it would be a much more impressive feat than normal. With Stanford, Texas, and Miami having to dig deep for arms in the coming days, the CSF and Rice hitters will seem more potent than they are. Also something to consider, Rice and CSF both play excellent defense with Rice arguably being the best defensive team in the country. Pitching and defense is a hard combo to beat in this winner's bracket situation.
Tonight's game features Texas, coming off of a brutal defeat at the hands of Rice, against a Miami team that has struggled some on the mound and in the field. Texas is still searching for a #3 starter. Senior Danny Muegge (6-6, 4.89) was pitching in that spot of the rotation. But he has not been used since the conference tournament and has had several consecutive poor outings. J. Brent Cox would be a good selection to start. Except he has pitched in both of the Longhorn CWS games (albeit only 26 pitches). I would not expect Garrido to start Cox, but he will likely be available for a little middle relief. The start could go to freshman Sam LeCure (4-0, 4.08), who has had some good outings lately. He threw one inning against the Hurricanes on Saturday and did fine. Muegge and LeCure being righties could also prompt Garrido to consider starting one of the lefties on the roster, due to Miami having 122 stolen bases on the year. Being an elimination game, Garrido will not hesitate to use Huston Street (8-0, 1.38, 14 sv.) as early as the 5th or 6th inning if needed. Street has yet to pitch in the CWS. Offensively, look for the Longhorns to continue to play their game. They will bunt early and often to move runners over. Garrido is a big believer in jumping out on top early. The Horns will also use their running game. I expect the Horns to score some runs off of a mediocre Miami pitching staff tonight. Look for Omar Quintanilla and Dustin Majewski to have good games tonight, despite the Cane starter being a lefty.
Miami will likely look to Brandon Camardese (9-1, 4.95) for this game against the Horns. Camardese was roughed up badly against Florida on Sunday in the super-regional. He did pitch well in the second and clinching super-regional game against North Carolina State. The top relievers for Miami (Huguet and Valdes-Fauli) have already thrown in both Hurricane CWS games (~ 40 pitches total each). After that, the pickins are a bit slim. Ofensively, the Canes are led by freshman Ryan Braun. Braun was invited to Team USA tryouts and has had a stellar campaign (.374, 17HR). However, Braun has yet to get on track in the CWS, going 0-8 with six strikeouts. Jim Burt, son of former Giant OL Jim Burt, is the only other Cane in double digit HR figures. Look for Miami to apply a similar strategy to that of Texas. They will want to break out on top early, using the bunt and/or their running game.
Provided Texas is still not having nightmares from last night, I like Texas in this one. Garrido is not going to make an exit without throwing Huston Street.
Brian
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