Well for sake of covering the scenarios, here is my thought process.
Assuming we beat Troy and stAte beats FAU, here is what the standings would look like:
UL: 5-1
Troy: 4-2
Ark. St: 3-2
FAU: 3-3
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FAU: Mathematically, FAU is eliminated at that point.
Troy: Even if Troy wins on 12/6 against stAte, and we lose to Middle on 12/3, UL holds the tiebreaker over Troy for the head-to-head win.
Ark. St: Even if stAte beats North Texas on 11/29 and Troy on 12/6, and we lose to Middle on 12/3, UL holds the tiebreaker over stAte for the head-to-head win.
I know I'm jumping ahead here. But the stAte/FAU game kicks off at 2:00. We will know the outcome before we kickoff in Troy. If stAte wins at home (and they are a MUCH better team at home) and we survive Troy, its all over but the crying for the rest of the Belt.
Assuming FAU beats stAte, and we beat Troy, we must beat Middle on 12/3 to claim the Belt.