Commenting on the latest Rival projection:
"Whoever is doing it doesn't realize how things work.
Let's say the Trojans win the league as they project, the Cajuns and Red Wolves finish bowl eligible and the SEC is unable to finish with teams available for Birmingham and Shreveport.
It won't be Troy to NO, UL to Indy, ASU to Bham.
ESPN owns the Bham Bowl they will ask that Troy be released so they can sell more tickets. Bowl revenue outside the richest games comes down to tickets sold, Troy can make more in Birmingham and the band can come much more cheaply (ie. lower cost higher revenue). Troy will agree. New Orleans will agree to release them as well.
The Cajuns will go to New Orleans. They like Troy will happily agree and the bowl knows they'll sell more tickets so they agree.
The Red Wolves will be headed to Shreveport in this scenario. Birmingham is slightly shorter from Jonesboro (less than 30 minute difference) so either makes no difference but for the Central Arkansas fan base Shreveport is two hours closer and for the south Arkansas folks (ASU has had at least one radio affiliate in south Arkansas for decades due to local kids playing up there) it is even closer. Plus there is the historic element of the Independence Bowl getting approved by pointing to ASU's undefeated season the year before approval.
Order of finish won't matter in this situation because ignoring order of finish makes more money for each Sun Belt team and each bowl game."