RPI Watch

[cajundiehard]

Alabama to surpass Indiana State.

Brian

And the Cajuns could help Alabama do that by winning tomorrow... although that Southern Miss loss doesn't help them since USM/Alabama also played twice.

Another question... just out of curiosity... which bubble teams are rooting for the Cajuns to take care of business tomorrow??? since WHEN the Cajuns win, it will open up a spot for them that would otherwise automatically go to UTA.

[GoneGolfin]

So what does all this mean? We're going to get screwed, aren't we?

Not if the Cajuns win the Sun Belt Tournament. If they do, the Cajuns will end up with the #5 or #6 RPI. The schedule warts will not keep them from a national seed.

Just some back of the envelope estimates ...

If the Cajuns lose to UTA, they could still finish as high as #6 in the RPI ... and it seems they could finish as low as #8. But #6 seems most likely here (they have some cushion).

#7 Vanderbilt will not pass the Cajuns.
#8 Rice is a remote possibility, but I think they fall short with a win over UTSA.
#9 LSU is a remote possibility, but I think they fall short with a win over Florida.
#10 Texas will not pass the Cajuns.
#11 Houston is a very remote possibility with a win over Louisville tomorrow, but I do not think they will pass the Cajuns.
#12 TCU ... same as Houston ... even with a win over Oklahoma State

Brian

[lcitsh]

http://web1.ncaa.org/app_data/weekly...14MBArpi1.html

2014 NCAA Men's Baseball RPI
Through Games of May 23, 2014
Generated: Saturday 05/24/14 08:05 AM
------- Division I Only --------
Rank Prev Rank Name Conf W-L-T Road Neut Home Non-Div I
1 1 Virginia Atlantic Coast 44-12-0 13-7-0 2-2-0 29-3-0 0-0-0
2 2 Florida Southeastern 39-20-0 12-8-0 4-1-0 23-11-0 0-0-0
3 4 Indiana Big Ten 40-13-0 18-8-0 4-2-0 18-3-0 0-0-0
4 3 Florida St. Atlantic Coast 42-15-0 16-6-0 1-2-0 25-7-0 0-0-0
5 5 Oregon St. Pac-12 41-11-0 13-5-0 7-2-0 21-4-0 0-0-0
6 7 Louisiana Sun Belt 51-7-0 22-2-0 2-0-0 27-5-0 0-0-0
7 15 Texas Big 12 38-16-0 12-6-0 5-0-0 21-10-0 0-0-0
8 10 Rice Conference USA 39-17-0 16-7-0 3-3-0 20-7-0 0-0-0
9 6 Vanderbilt Southeastern 41-18-0 13-7-0 2-2-0 26-9-0 0-0-0
10 9 Houston AAC 43-15-0 14-4-0 4-3-0 25-8-0 0-0-0
11 14 TCU Big 12 40-15-0 12-6-0 6-2-0 22-7-0 0-0-0
12 8 South Carolina Southeastern 42-16-0 9-9-0 1-2-0 32-5-0 0-0-0
13 16 LSU Southeastern 42-14-1 10-9-0 3-0-0 29-5-1 0-0-0
14 13 Ole Miss Southeastern 41-18-0 15-7-0 1-4-0 25-7-0 0-0-0
15 17 Cal Poly Big West 45-10-0 18-7-0 0-0-0 27-3-0 0-0-0
16 12 Miami (FL) Atlantic Coast 40-17-0 17-5-0 0-2-0 23-10-0 0-0-0
17 11 Texas Tech Big 12 40-18-0 7-9-0 2-5-0 31-4-0 0-0-0
18 22 Kentucky Southeastern 35-22-0 10-11-0 6-1-0 19-10-0 0-0-0
19 21 Oklahoma St. Big 12 43-15-0 13-4-0 8-3-0 22-8-0 0-0-0
20 20 Louisville AAC 44-14-0 12-6-0 3-1-0 29-7-0 0-0-0
21 19 Washington Pac-12 38-14-1 15-5-0 3-4-1 20-5-0 0-0-0
22 23 Oregon Pac-12 42-17-0 18-10-0 0-0-0 24-7-0 0-0-0
23 18 Indiana St. Missouri Valley 35-16-0 17-10-0 3-3-0 15-3-0 0-0-0
24 28 Maryland Atlantic Coast 36-19-0 11-12-0 4-0-0 21-7-0 0-0-0
25 26 UNLV Mountain West 35-21-0 11-17-0 3-1-0 21-3-0 0-0-0
26 24 Alabama Southeastern 34-22-0 11-10-0 2-1-0 21-11-0 0-0-0
27 25 Liberty Big South 41-15-0 14-7-0 5-3-0 22-5-0 0-0-0
28 27 Nebraska Big Ten 39-18-0 14-7-0 6-3-0 19-8-0 0-0-0
29 34 Dallas Baptist Missouri Valley 39-19-0 16-10-0 3-1-0 20-8-0 0-0-0
30 41 Arkansas Southeastern 38-22-0 8-10-0 5-2-0 25-10-0 0-0-0
31 30 Mississippi St. Southeastern 37-22-0 11-6-0 4-4-0 22-12-0 0-0-0
32 35 Arizona St. Pac-12 32-21-0 9-10-0 4-0-0 19-11-0 0-0-0
33 47 Long Beach St. Big West 31-24-0 13-13-0 0-0-0 18-11-0 0-0-0
34 39 Georgia Tech Atlantic Coast 35-25-0 6-13-0 4-1-0 25-11-0 0-0-0
35 42 Pepperdine West Coast 38-16-0 14-9-0 2-0-0 22-7-0 0-0-0
36 32 Sam Houston St. Southland 41-17-0 14-8-0 3-3-0 24-6-0 0-0-0
37 31 West Virginia Big 12 28-26-0 12-18-0 5-4-0 11-4-0 0-0-0
38 37 Old Dominion Conference USA 35-23-0 13-9-0 3-2-0 19-12-0 0-0-0
39 43 Columbia Ivy 28-18-0 17-15-0 2-0-0 9-3-0 0-0-0
40 33 Texas A&M Southeastern 33-24-0 9-11-0 0-1-0 24-12-0 0-0-0
41 38 UC Irvine Big West 35-21-0 14-9-0 0-0-0 21-12-0 0-0-0
42 49 Bryant Northeast 41-14-0 26-8-0 3-1-0 12-5-0 0-0-0
43 29 Mercer Atlantic Sun 38-17-0 14-11-0 0-2-0 24-4-0 0-0-0
44 48 Stanford Pac-12 28-23-0 12-12-0 0-0-0 16-11-0 0-0-0
45 36 Kansas Big 12 34-24-0 11-13-0 11-3-0 12-8-0 0-0-0
46 44 North Carolina Atlantic Coast 33-25-0 8-12-0 2-2-0 23-11-0 0-0-0
47 51 Clemson Atlantic Coast 36-23-0 11-9-0 3-2-0 22-12-0 0-0-0
48 50 San Diego St. Mountain West 39-19-0 13-13-0 2-1-0 24-5-0 0-0-0
49 45 Tennessee Southeastern 31-23-0 9-12-0 0-1-0 22-10-0 0-0-0
50 46 UCF AAC 36-23-0 11-11-0 2-1-0 23-11-0 0-0-0

[DocCajun]

So what does all this mean? We're going to get screwed, aren't we?

I just have this doom and gloom suspicion we get snubbed and paired with LSU who gets a national seed. My suspicions are usually nothing but I feel like letting out is going to make it NOT come true lol

[jllanclos]

Just some back of the envelope estimates ...

Brian

You really did that on the back of an envelope?

STUD.

Seriously... so your take is win, and we're a national seed.

Lose, and we need some help. Like Alabama being in the top 25. What other help?

[cajundiehard]

I'm thinking Cajuns and LSU are both national seeds...

Louisiana paired with an Ole Miss regional.

LSU paired with a Rice regional.

There you have it!

Take care of business tomorrow!

[GoneGolfin]

You really did that on the back of an envelope?

STUD.

Seriously... so your take is win, and we're a national seed.

Yes.

Lose, and we need some help. Like Alabama being in the top 25. What other help?

We may already be there. But losing, having Alabama slip out of the RPI Top 25, and the Cajuns falling to #8 in the RPI would give the selection committee an opportunity to not select the Cajuns as a National Seed (citing weak SOS, one game vs. RPI Top 25 ... and only four games vs. RPI Top 50). But I think our chances are decent (not a lock), even with a loss.

A win ... and the Cajuns could be looking at a national seed between 4 and 6.

Brian

[jllanclos]

Yes.


We may already be there. But losing, having Alabama slip out of the RPI Top 25, and the Cajuns falling to #8 in the RPI would give the selection committee an opportunity not to select the Cajuns as a National Seed.

A win ... and the Cajuns could be looking at a national seed between 4 and 6.

Brian

A 4 national seed? Oh man. Now you're going to hold that football in place. I believe yoaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaarrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrggggggggggggghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[GoneGolfin]

A 4 national seed? Oh man. Now you're going to hold that football in place. I believe yoaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaarrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrggggggggggggghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I think Florida, Oregon State, and Virginia are seeded ahead of the Cajuns ... as is likely Florida State (but not a sure thing). Next, I think Indiana may be seeded ahead of the Cajuns ... but possibly behind the Cajuns ... especially if they lose to Nebraska. So, best case is #4 ... but #6 would seem to be more likely.

Brian

[Bandwagon King]

If we're having to do this much nitt picking at the end of a 59 game season to determine RPI & therefore seeding, then at some point common sense should dictate that record is as valuable as RPI. If we're going to the fourth digit behind the decimal to determine who the better team is then sooner or later commons sense dictates that the eyeball test must carry some weight.

[jllanclos]

If we're having to do this much nitt picking at the end of a 59 game season to determine RPI & therefore seeding, then at some point common sense should dictate that record is as valuable as RPI. If we're going to the fourth digit behind the decimal to determine who the better team is then sooner or later commons sense dictates that the eyeball test must carry some weight.

No. Common sense dictates that University-Name sucks worse than the worst team in the SEC, by sheer virtue of the fact that they're the SEC.

How are those 11 teams they got doing in softball? Oh.

Rant over. Damn I wish it was Monday at noon. I know some people call this part "fun." This isn't the part I call "fun."

Could be worse, though. I know my name's going to be called, and my boys will be sleeping in their own beds next weekend.

[GoneGolfin]

Both Virginia and Florida State will be national seeds.

There is a good chance that Florida will be the #1 National Seed.

Unfortunately, Southern Miss is about to lose ... and Rice will face UTSA in the CUSA Championship game.

Meanwhile, there is real risk that #24 Alabama .5671 may be surpassed by #25 Maryland .5665 (vs. Georgia Tech tomorrow), #26 UNLV .5664 (must be beaten twice by San Diego State), and .5654 Nebraska (vs. Indiana tomorrow). #23 Indiana State, also .5671, is just in front of Alabama. The Sycamores are done until the NCAA Tournament.

Brian

Washington losing again Saturday night will help Alabama stay in the RPI Top 25. I do not think Washington is likely to recover to surpass Alabama at this point. They are also in the process of losing a host regional (having lost the first two games of the series to a 25-29 UCLA team).

#20 Kentucky .5755 (cannot be caught by anyone below)
#21 Indiana State .5671 (finished play)
#22 Alabama .5669 (finished play)
#23 Maryland .5665 (will pass Alabama with a win over Georgia Tech)
#24 Oregon .5665 (will pass Alabama with a win over California)
#25 Nebraska .5650 (will pass Alabama with a win over Indiana)
#26 Washington .5643 (not likely to pass Alabama with a win over UCLA)
#27 UNLV .5633 (can possibly pass Alabama with a win over San Diego State)
#28 Dallas Baptist (finished play, Alabama out of reach)

Brian