A potential National Seed scenario that concerns me ...

[GoneGolfin]

As we get to the two final weekends of play, you can see the shape of the conference races and whom has a chance to bring home the conference title. This has an impact on the shape of the national seeds … as winning conference titles is important … and high finishes in the elite RPI Conferences is important. Here is a potential National Seed set that concerns me …

Potential Top 8 in no particular order …

#1 RPI Virginia -> 2nd place in #3 RPI Conference
#2 RPI Florida -> 1st place in #1 RPI Conference
#9 RPI Oregon State -> 1st place in #4 RPI Conference
#6 RPI Rice -> 1st place in #8 RPI Conference
#4 RPI Indiana -> 1st place in #11 RPI Conference
#10 RPI TCU -> T1st in #2 RPI Conference
#3 RPI Florida State -> 3rd place (#2 seed) in #3 RPI Conference
#11 RPI Ole Miss -> 2nd place in #1 RPI Conference

Others ...

#8 RPI Louisiana -> 1st place in #10 RPI Conference
#5 RPI Vanderbilt -> T3rd in #1 RPI Conference
#18 RPI Miami -> 1st place in #3 RPI Conference
#12 RPI South Carolina -> T6th in #1 RPI Conference
#26 RPI Washington -> 2nd place in #4 RPI Conference (percentage points behind Oregon State)
#27 RPI Oklahoma State -> T1st in #2 RPI Conference (would be #1 seed with tiebreaker over TCU)

So … TCU is very much a concern. I would rather Oklahoma State win the Big XII and take my chances there. Ole Miss is a concern. They drew one of the weak SEC schedules and also finish with Georgia and Texas A&M. They could easily finish with the 2nd best record in the SEC and be the #2 seed in the conference tournament. If it comes down to Ole Miss vs. Louisiana, I would hope that they analyze their success against common opponents closely. It would also help to have Indiana fall in the RPI. Similarly, Florida State falling in RPI would help. We also want Vanderbilt to slip … it could come down to Louisiana vs. Vanderbilt/Ole Miss. But it would seem that the SEC will get two national seeds. Finally, #18 Miami is a concern as they lead the ACC. Too bad Alabama State could not take the Sunday game.

It is likely that the SEC gets (2) national seeds minimum … ACC gets (2) minimum … Big XII gets (1) … Pac-12 gets (1) minimum (6 of 8 national seeds from Top 4 RPI Conferences). That leaves two spots for Rice, Indiana, Louisiana, and any third team from the SEC or ACC. That is, unless the Big XII ends up with none (#2 RPI Conference … not likely, but possible) … or the ACC gets only one (not likely, but possible).

Obviously all of this will carry over into the conference tournaments. These tournaments will play a role in determining the national seeds.

With Houston at 10-8 in the AAC (good for a distance third place), they are not in the running for a national seed, despite their #7 RPI ranking.

Brian

[Turbine]

Wait I thought it was ...

#8 RPI Louisiana -> 1st place in #1 RPI Conference (SEC)

[ulforlife]

I would love to see it happen, but I just don't. I think we will have to go on the road to get to Omaha. They will blame it on the SOS (maybe even our small facility) and fill in the teams they want. If we were #5 or 6 that would be a different story but if we finish even at #8, then I don't think they give it to us. I hope I'm wrong.

Hopefully we get paired with a 7-8 seed that we can handle up on

[CajunStros]

I would love to see it happen, but I just don't. I think we will have to go on the road to get to Omaha. They will blame it on the SOS (maybe even our small facility) and fill in the teams they want. If we were #5 or 6 that would be a different story but if we finish even at #8, then I don't think they give it to us. I hope I'm wrong.

Hopefully we get paired with a 7-8 seed that we can handle up on

Unfortunately, I tend to agree. If we are 7/8 in RPI I think the comitee finds an excuse or 10 to keep us from being a national seed. I hope I'm wrong.

[raginsaints]

As we get to the two final weekends of play, you can see the shape of the conference races and whom has a chance to bring home the conference title. This has an impact on the shape of the national seeds … as winning conference titles is important … and high finishes in the elite RPI Conferences is important. Here is a potential National Seed set that concerns me …

Potential Top 8 in no particular order …

#1 RPI Virginia -> 2nd place in #3 RPI Conference
#2 RPI Florida -> 1st place in #1 RPI Conference
#9 RPI Oregon State -> 1st place in #4 RPI Conference
#6 RPI Rice -> 1st place in #8 RPI Conference
#4 RPI Indiana -> 1st place in #11 RPI Conference
#10 RPI TCU -> T1st in #2 RPI Conference
#3 RPI Florida State -> 3rd place (#2 seed) in #3 RPI Conference
#11 RPI Ole Miss -> 2nd place in #1 RPI Conference

Others ...

#8 RPI Louisiana -> 1st place in #10 RPI Conference
#5 RPI Vanderbilt -> T3rd in #1 RPI Conference
#18 RPI Miami -> 1st place in #3 RPI Conference
#12 RPI South Carolina -> T6th in #1 RPI Conference
#26 RPI Washington -> 2nd place in #4 RPI Conference (percentage points behind Oregon State)
#27 RPI Oklahoma State -> T1st in #2 RPI Conference (would be #1 seed with tiebreaker over TCU)

So … TCU is very much a concern. I would rather Oklahoma State win the Big XII and take my chances there. Ole Miss is a concern. They drew one of the weak SEC schedules and also finish with Georgia and Texas A&M. They could easily finish with the 2nd best record in the SEC and be the #2 seed in the conference tournament. If it comes down to Ole Miss vs. Louisiana, I would hope that they analyze their success against common opponents closely. It would also help to have Indiana fall in the RPI. Similarly, Florida State falling in RPI would help. We also want Vanderbilt to slip … it could come down to Louisiana vs. Vanderbilt/Ole Miss. But it would seem that the SEC will get two national seeds. Finally, #18 Miami is a concern as they lead the ACC. Too bad Alabama State could not take the Sunday game.

It is likely that the SEC gets (2) national seeds minimum … ACC gets (2) minimum … Big XII gets (1) … Pac-12 gets (1) minimum (6 of 8 national seeds from Top 4 RPI Conferences). That leaves two spots for Rice, Indiana, Louisiana, and any third team from the SEC or ACC. That is, unless the Big XII ends up with none (#2 RPI Conference … not likely, but possible) … or the ACC gets only one (not likely, but possible).

Obviously all of this will carry over into the conference tournaments. These tournaments will play a role in determining the national seeds.

With Houston at 10-8 in the AAC (good for a distance third place), they are not in the running for a national seed, despite their #7 RPI ranking.

Brian

____ing TCU

[jllanclos]

You really think Indiana would be considered over Louisiana? That's pretty sickening that we're even having this conversation.

[Boomer]

You really think Indiana would be considered over Louisiana? That's pretty sickening that we're even having this conversation.

[BananaHammock]

You really think Indiana would be considered over Louisiana? That's pretty sickening that we're even having this conversation.

I agree but it's hard to make sense when looking at a lot of the decisions made when it comes to this. If we had a bigger stadium we could eliminate one of the two things dogging us. Our conference schedule will continue to hurt us until we switch conferences. All we can do is continue to schedule quality OOC opponents.

[ulforlife]

You really think Indiana would be considered over Louisiana? That's pretty sickening that we're even having this conversation.

Dude, they swept Purdue. They're sick!

[DocCajun]

I would love to see it happen, but I just don't. I think we will have to go on the road to get to Omaha. They will blame it on the SOS (maybe even our small facility) and fill in the teams they want. If we were #5 or 6 that would be a different story but if we finish even at #8, then I don't think they give it to us. I hope I'm wrong.

Hopefully we get paired with a 7-8 seed that we can handle up on

My thinking as well. But even though our frame of reference has been a national seed for weeks now, let's not downplay how huge it is to host a regional in the first place

[Dad04]

Dude, they swept Purdue. They're sick!

and Purdue just beat Butler in 10 innings, which was epic.

[Just1More]

If your RPI is already calculated using the RPI of your opponents, including your conference opponents... why then does the conference RPI factor into the national seeding? You already have the doubling and tripling up of RPI components in the RPI equation... and then after the RPI aligns everyone, they take into consideration the "conference RPI" to realign further?