Cajun Softball RPI Breakdown (4/27/14)

[GoneGolfin]

Here is the breakdown of the Cajuns' RPI through the games of Sunday 4/27.

WP -> .83696 (#7)
OWP -> .60375 (#13)
OOWP -> .54970 (#23)
SOS -> .58573 (#11)
--
Base RPI: .64854 (#6)
RPI Bonus: .02240
--
Adjusted RPI: .67094 (#5)

RPI Bonus Details ...

#12 Oklahoma -> .0056 (2 wins)
#16 Baylor -> .0084 (3 wins)
#17 Michigan -> .0028 (1 win)
#34 Hofstra -> .0021 (1 win)
#47 McNeese State -> .0021 (1 win)
#54 Illinois State -> .0014 (1 win)
--
Total RPI Bonus: .02240

Given that ULM's final regular season games are also against the Cajuns, they will contribute an OWP of .50000 to the Cajuns' RPI. At present, ULM has an OWP of .46981. But if you factor (3) games vs. the Cajuns, that will move their OWP to .49324 ... which is their OOWP contribution to the Cajuns' RPI. Three wins over ULM will give the Cajuns the following RPI (all other things being equal) ...

WP -> .84694 (up .00998 from 4/27 RPI report)
OWP -> .59740 (down .00635 from 4/27 RPI report)
OOWP -> .54624 (down .00346 from 4/27 report)
--
Base RPI -> .64700 (down .00154 from 4/27 RPI report)
RPI Bonus -> .02240
--
Adjusted RPI -> .66940 (down .00154 from 4/27 RPI report)

So, beating ULM (3) times results in a modest drop in RPI. An Adjusted RPI of .66940 would result in an RPI ranking of #6 in this week's RPI ... comfortable ahead of #7 Missouri (.65802) ... or .01138.


Brian

[lcitsh]

Brian, help me out a little, I'm probably missing something here. First, I'm curious where you're getting the numbers (13, 19, 15, etc.) for Michigan, Baylor, etc. Second, you're, obviously, leaving out calculations involving results for Cajun opponents, other than ULM, this week as you can't predict what they will do. So the information you gave in this post is what our base rpi should be after this week?

[GoneGolfin]

Brian, help me out a little, I'm probably missing something here. First, I'm curious where you're getting the numbers (13, 19, 15, etc.) for Michigan, Baylor, etc.

Thanks for catching that. I did a copy/paste from last week and forgot to update the Base RPI rankings of our RPI bonus opponents. The rankings are now updated. There was no change in RPI bonus.

Second, you're, obviously, leaving out calculations involving results for Cajun opponents, other than ULM, this week as you can't predict what they will do.

Yes, this is why I said "(all other things being equal)". It makes no sense to predict what Cajun opponents and opponents' opponents are going to do. As such, I hold these values constant ... and introduce what ULM will do to the Cajuns OWP and OOWP. Just as I always do with the baseball forecasts.

So the information you gave in this post is what our base rpi should be after this week?

Yes ... as well as Adjusted RPI ... it assumes the Cajuns go 3-0 vs. ULM ... our OWP (other than introducing ULM's W/L percentage) remains constant ... and our OOWP (other than introducing ULM's opponents) remains constant. I also keep the RPI bonus constant. Of course, teams can cross bonus tiers in both directions which can cause such fluctuations. For example, McNeese State is on the cusp of falling out of the Top 50 ... and thus moving from an RPI bonus of .0021 to .0014. Illinois State is on the cusp of moving into the Top 50.

Brian

[lcitsh]

Thanks for catching that. I did a copy/paste from last week and forgot to update the Base RPI rankings of our RPI bonus opponents. The rankings are now updated. There was no change in RPI bonus.


Yes, this is why I said "(all other things being equal)". It makes no sense to predict what Cajun opponents and opponents' opponents are going to do. As such, I hold these values constant ... and introduce what ULM will do to the Cajuns OWP and OOWP. Just as I always do with the baseball forecasts.


Yes ... as well as Adjusted RPI ... it assumes the Cajuns go 3-0 vs. ULM ... our OWP (other than introducing ULM's W/L percentage) remains constant ... and our OOWP (other than introducing ULM's opponents) remains constant. I also keep the RPI bonus constant. Of course, teams can cross bonus tiers in both directions which can cause such fluctuations. For example, McNeese State is on the cusp of falling out of the Top 50 ... and thus moving from an RPI bonus of .0021 to .0014. Illinois State is on the cusp of moving into the Top 50.

Brian

I was going to say that this was not going to be likely, with two games coming up against Baylor, then finishing at home against Lamar, but one of the games at Baylor has been cancelled, so they're only playing one. Now I'm not so sure.