Cajun Softball RPI Breakdown ...

[GoneGolfin]

Here is the breakdown of the Cajuns' RPI through the games of Sunday 4/20. The RPI components were reverse engineered from the NCAA provided data …

WP -> .81707 (#11)
OWP -> .61488 (#12)
OOWP -> .54469 (#28)
SOS -> .59148 (#14)
--
Base RPI: .64788 (#6)
RPI Bonus: .0168
--
Adjusted RPI: .66468 (#6)

Given the above, we can project the impact of the remaining schedule. Assuming we play all eight remaining games … (2) games already played at Baylor, (3) vs. Texas-Arlington, and (3) vs. ULM …

OWP of remaining games = .53960 * 8 games. Thus, even with Baylor, our remaining OWP does take a hit from the current .61488. However, assuming we go 6-0 in the last six games, our WP moves to .84694. I do not have remaining OOWP numbers yet, but let's use the current .54469 OOWP for now. This would give us …

WP -> .84694
OWP -> .60259 (fall of .01229)
OOWP -> .54469 (keeping constant for now)
--
Base RPI -> .64920
RPI Bonus -> .02240 (includes Baylor RPI bonus of .0056)
--
Adjusted RPI -> .67160

An Adjusted RPI of .67160 puts us at #5 based on this week's RPI numbers. But keep in mind that our big conference competitors have a schedule advantage down the stretch that will help their numbers … it just depends on how many they win. Of course, we can be helped (or hurt) by how our opponents play down the stretch. As always, this assumes all other things being equal.

The other thing to watch is whether or not our non-conference Base RPI Top XX opponents (whom we defeated) stay in their bonus tiers (or improve). We are getting RPI bonus points for the following …

#13 Michigan -> .0028 (1 win)
#19 Baylor -> .0084 (3 wins)
#15 Oklahoma -> .0056 (2 wins)
#43 McNeese State -> .0021 (1 win)
#42 Hofstra -> .0021 (1 win)
#67 Illinois State -> .0014 (1 win)
--
Total RPI Bonus: .02240

The good news is that the big conference scheduling advantage down the stretch (that was egregious) has been somewhat mitigated by the removal of RPI bonuses for winning conference games against RPI Top XX opponents (removed prior to the 2013 season). This will be big in keeping the Cajuns in the RPI Top 8 … otherwise, it would not have happened.

Brian

[jllanclos]

Always thorough and insightful, Brian. Thanks!

What a racket the conference bonus is. The RPI is stacked against us as it is. How they ever got away with that is beyond me. It's a higher quality win because it's a conference win? What a farce. Glad they got rid of that, at least. I'm sure Scott Farmer raised a stink about it.

[moorecajun]

However, the reward was for the top 4 rpi conferences ... and the S-BC is #4 this year.

That sentence is based upon my recollection of one Brian's earlier posts ... which is questionable ... my recollection, not Brian's post.

[CajunAmos]

Here is the breakdown of the Cajuns' RPI through the games of Sunday 4/20. The RPI components were reverse engineered from the NCAA provided data …

WP -> .81707 (#11)
OWP -> .61488 (#12)
OOWP -> .54469 (#28)
SOS -> .59148 (#14)
--
Base RPI: .64788 (#6)
RPI Bonus: .0168
--
Adjusted RPI: .66468 (#6)

Given the above, we can project the impact of the remaining schedule. Assuming we play all eight remaining games … (2) games already played at Baylor, (3) vs. Texas-Arlington, and (3) vs. ULM …

OWP of remaining games = .53960 * 8 games. Thus, even with Baylor, our remaining OWP does take a hit from the current .61488. However, assuming we go 6-0 in the last six games, our WP moves to .84694. I do not have remaining OOWP numbers yet, but let's use the current .54469 OOWP for now. This would give us …

WP -> .84694
OWP -> .60259 (fall of .01229)
OOWP -> .54469 (keeping constant for now)
--
Base RPI -> .64920
RPI Bonus -> .02240 (includes Baylor RPI bonus of .0056)
--
Adjusted RPI -> .67160

An Adjusted RPI of .67160 puts us at #5 based on this week's RPI numbers. But keep in mind that our big conference competitors have a schedule advantage down the stretch that will help their numbers … it just depends on how many they win. Of course, we can be helped (or hurt) by how our opponents play down the stretch. As always, this assumes all other things being equal.

The other thing to watch is whether or not our non-conference Base RPI Top XX opponents (whom we defeated) stay in their bonus tiers (or improve). We are getting RPI bonus points for the following …

#13 Michigan -> .0028 (1 win)
#19 Baylor -> .0084 (3 wins)
#15 Oklahoma -> .0056 (2 wins)
#43 McNeese State -> .0021 (1 win)
#42 Hofstra -> .0021 (1 win)
#67 Illinois State -> .0014 (1 win)
--
Total RPI Bonus: .02240

The good news is that the big conference scheduling advantage down the stretch (that was egregious) has been somewhat mitigated by the removal of RPI bonuses for winning conference games against RPI Top XX opponents (removed prior to the 2013 season). This will be big in keeping the Cajuns in the RPI Top 8 … otherwise, it would not have happened.

Brian

Michigan lost the first of a DH to Purdue earlier today.

[GoneGolfin]

Always thorough and insightful, Brian. Thanks!

What a racket the conference bonus is. The RPI is stacked against us as it is. How they ever got away with that is beyond me. It's a higher quality win because it's a conference win? What a farce. Glad they got rid of that, at least. I'm sure Scott Farmer raised a stink about it.

Thanks.

Are you serious or just jesting? This was done via Coach Lotief raising the issue with the softball committee after the 2012 season … along with a host of other issues with the RPI in which I provided the arguments in writing (also some emails that went back and forth with the NCAA) and Coach Lotief delivered the presentation/argument. This is the only change they have adopted at present … but are supposed to revisit the home/road issue as well as some other items.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

However, the reward was for the top 4 rpi conferences ... and the S-BC is #4 this year.

That sentence is based upon my recollection of one Brian's earlier posts ... which is questionable ... my recollection, not Brian's post.

Yes, the Sun Belt is presently the #4 RPI Conference. The Big Ten is #5 and the ACC is #6.

But the real benefit of the RPI bonuses for conference wins vs. RPI Top XX opponents was realized by teams in the SEC, Pac-12, and Big 12.

I will perform a calc at selection time to see where the Cajuns would have finished under the 2012 rules. But I am betting that it is not Top 8 … and probably 10->15.

Brian

[jllanclos]

Are you serious or just jesting? This was done via Coach Lotief raising the issue with the softball committee after the 2012 season … along with a host of other issues with the RPI in which I provided the arguments in writing (also some emails that went back and forth with the NCAA) and Coach Lotief delivered the presentation/argument. This is the only change they have adopted at present … but are supposed to revisit the home/road issue as well as some other items.

Brian

Jesting.

[campo118]

Here is the breakdown of the Cajuns' RPI through the games of Sunday 4/20. The RPI components were reverse engineered from the NCAA provided data …

WP -> .81707 (#11)
OWP -> .61488 (#12)
OOWP -> .54469 (#28)
SOS -> .59148 (#14)
--
Base RPI: .64788 (#6)
RPI Bonus: .0168
--
Adjusted RPI: .66468 (#6)

Given the above, we can project the impact of the remaining schedule. Assuming we play all eight remaining games … (2) games already played at Baylor, (3) vs. Texas-Arlington, and (3) vs. ULM …

OWP of remaining games = .53960 * 8 games. Thus, even with Baylor, our remaining OWP does take a hit from the current .61488. However, assuming we go 6-0 in the last six games, our WP moves to .84694. I do not have remaining OOWP numbers yet, but let's use the current .54469 OOWP for now. This would give us …

WP -> .84694
OWP -> .60259 (fall of .01229)
OOWP -> .54469 (keeping constant for now)
--
Base RPI -> .64920
RPI Bonus -> .02240 (includes Baylor RPI bonus of .0056)
--
Adjusted RPI -> .67160

An Adjusted RPI of .67160 puts us at #5 based on this week's RPI numbers. But keep in mind that our big conference competitors have a schedule advantage down the stretch that will help their numbers … it just depends on how many they win. Of course, we can be helped (or hurt) by how our opponents play down the stretch. As always, this assumes all other things being equal.

The other thing to watch is whether or not our non-conference Base RPI Top XX opponents (whom we defeated) stay in their bonus tiers (or improve). We are getting RPI bonus points for the following …

#13 Michigan -> .0028 (1 win)
#19 Baylor -> .0084 (3 wins)
#15 Oklahoma -> .0056 (2 wins)
#43 McNeese State -> .0021 (1 win)
#42 Hofstra -> .0021 (1 win)
#67 Illinois State -> .0014 (1 win)
--
Total RPI Bonus: .02240

The good news is that the big conference scheduling advantage down the stretch (that was egregious) has been somewhat mitigated by the removal of RPI bonuses for winning conference games against RPI Top XX opponents (removed prior to the 2013 season). This will be big in keeping the Cajuns in the RPI Top 8 … otherwise, it would not have happened.

Brian

Do we not get RPI bonus for beating RPI top XX teams within conference? South Alabama and WKU specifically? NM
Wow! Sorry, Just read the last paragraph that answered my question. Didn't comprehend initially…

[CajunAmos]

Do we not get RPI bonus for beating RPI top XX teams within conference? South Alabama and WKU specifically?

Not any more, and that's a good thing.

[tank]

JUST WIN BABY !!!!!

[RaginScotsman]

RPI game of interest-- South Al @ Refineryville State on cst. The Jaguars' coach opted to start her #3 pitcher instead of one of the all American candidates. She has walked the first 4 batters she faced and has only thrown 6 strikes total. I don't know what strategy she's using there.

[jllanclos]

RPI game of interest-- South Al @ Refineryville State on cst. The Jaguars' coach opted to start her #3 pitcher instead of one of the all American candidates. She has walked the first 4 batters she faced and has only thrown 6 strikes total. I don't know what strategy she's using there.

Not able to watch. But what are the chances Lynn asks Yvette why LSU is chicken to play Louisiana?

S. Alabama 0
LSU 2
End 1st