Baseball Rankings - 4/21

[CrazyCajun]

I see it differently. What can we do to improve our chances at hosting as a national seed? Play better competition - can't change that. Hope our opponents play well - can't control that. We can, though, go on a tear and convince every voter that we are one of the best teams in the country and make the committee convince themselves otherwise. I know Brian will come and tell me that polls don't matter. Our RPI will not improve even if we win, so why not make some noise and hopefully give cause for a change in the formula. This season is all that is important right now. But it would be nice to get the RPI formula changed for our future teams. We've seen first hand that it is nearly impossible for a mid major to finish with top 8 RPI and that is a major flaw.

I'm sure they will change the system that protects the big money conferences in order to make it fair for sunbelt teams.

[CajunRage]

I'm sure they will change the system that protects the big money conferences in order to make it fair for sunbelt teams.

Maybe they will, maybe they won't. Has a unanimous number 1 team ever been snubbed of a national seed?

[cajunfan79]

Maybe they will, maybe they won't. Has a unanimous number 1 team ever been snubbed of a national seed?

When was the last time a mid major finished #1 in the polls at selection time? That's why they probably have not been snubbed before.

[CrazyCajun]

They won't change the system if we do get snubbed, in their minds the system would have worked if that happens. When it happens to money conferences they see it as snubbed, when it happens to us, the system did it's job.

[cajunfan79]

I don't agree with it but if you go off of what Brian said about recent trends we might get snubbed.

[GoneGolfin]

I see it differently. What can we do to improve our chances at hosting as a national seed? Play better competition - can't change that. Hope our opponents play well - can't control that. We can, though, go on a tear and convince every voter that we are one of the best teams in the country and make the committee convince themselves otherwise. I know Brian will come and tell me that polls don't matter.

I think some clarity to what I have said is important here. It is not nearly as simplistic as you state here.

For a more complete explanation, read this post ...

I have said that the polls are not officially part of the selection process. I do think that they have some subjective value/influence. But the data in recent years (2010->2014) shows that the committee is not influenced by the polls ... but is a slave to the RPI ... and selects counter to the polls if that is what the RPI says to do. This does not mean ... however ... that the polls could not have an influence this time. But I do think it would be erroneous to expect that it will be different this time. The trend remains the same ... until it does not.

Our RPI will not improve even if we win,

Patently not true. If the Cajuns win, their RPI will go up. Quite nicely if they were to win them all ... which they will not. All other things being equal, of course.

Brian

[CajunRage]

When was the last time a mid major finished #1 in the polls at selection time? That's why they probably have not been snubbed before.

Precisely my point. You don't think that would cause some head scratching across the 200+ schools that aren't in the money conferences?

[Frenchie35]

If our rank was measured by our RPI, where would we be ranked right now in all the polls?

[GoneGolfin]

When was the last time a mid major finished #1 in the polls at selection time? That's why they probably have not been snubbed before.

I do not think the Cajuns miss a national seed with a #1 ranking ... if anything because their RPI will probably be either Top 8 ... or close enough to where the selection committee still makes them a national seed.

But lets talk about a more likely possibility ... the Cajuns are ranked somewhere between #4 and #7 at selection time. There are several examples where the teams ranked in this range had RPIs just outside of the Top 8. They were not awarded national seeds. Conversely, there were recently several examples where teams were ranked outside the Top 8 ... but had RPIs inside the Top 8. They were awarded national seeds. It is not difficult to see that when looking at the data, RPI yields considerable influence.

The following is data from the last four years that illustrates interesting scenarios where RPI and Poll rankings are in conflict with one another.

CB=Collegiate Baseball
BA=Baseball America

2013 ...
(#7 national seed) Florida State (#8 RPI, #9 CB, #11 BA)

2012 ...
(#5 national seed) Oregon (#6 RPI, #10 CB, #10 BA)
(#8 national seed) South Carolina (#11 RPI, #2 CB, #7 BA) * South Carolina finished 2nd in the SEC (#2 RPI Conference)

2011 ...
(#3 national seed) North Carolina (#1 RPI, #10 CB, #13 BA)
(#7 national seed) Texas (#12 RPI, #5 CB, #5 BA) * Texas won the Big XII (#3 RPI Conference)
(#8 national seed) Rice (#11 RPI, #17 CB, #9 BA) * Rice won CUSA (#5 RPI Conference)
(#1 regional seed) Texas A&M (#10 RPI, #6 CB, #7 BA)
(#1 regional seed) Cal-State Fullerton (#13 RPI, #8 CB, #8 BA)

2010 ...
(#7 national seed) Louisville (#7 RPI, #12 CB, #9 CB)
(#1 regional seed) Cal-State Fullerton (#11 RPI, #4 CB, #7 BA) * CSF won the Big West (#8 RPI Conference)
(#1 regional seed) TCU (#15 RPI, #7 CB, #6 BA) * TCU won the Mountain West (#10 RPI Conference)
(#1 regional seed) Miami (#8 RPI, #11 CB, #20 BA) * Miami finished 3rd in the ACC (#3 RPI Conference)

Note that if you win the regular season of one of the elite conferences (SEC, ACC, Big XII, Pac-12) ... you will be a national seed.

Brian

[CajunRage]

I think some clarity to what I have said is important here. It is not nearly as simplistic as you state here.

For a more complete explanation, read this post ...

I have said that the polls are not officially part of the selection process. I do think that they have some subjective value/influence. But the data in recent years (2010->2014) shows that the committee is not influenced by the polls ... but is a slave to the RPI ... and selects counter to the polls if that is what the RPI says to do. This does not mean ... however ... that the polls could not have an influence this time. But I do think it would be erroneous to expect that it will be different this time. The trend remains the same ... until it does not.


Patently not true. If the Cajuns win, their RPI will go up. Quite nicely if they were to win them all ... which they will not. All other things being equal, of course.

Brian

I should have clarified that I don't think it will go up enough to be top 8. I respect your stance on "until the trend changes". I'm just looking a different direction to get over the RPI obsession that is making us all crazy. Not trying to eliminate your raginpagin job though. Haha.

We have an opportunity to do something that there are no trends for. As stated earlier, no mid major team has ever been #1 come selection time. ~70% of the teams in college baseball are not in the money conferences and could possibly make a big enough stink to warrant change if a team goes against the odds and gets snubbed of a national seed.

We finish on top of every poll, our RPI will be as good as it could be. One can't happen without the other. Watching us hover around 1,2,3 is much easier on the heart than watching the roller coast that is RPI. That is all I'm saying.

[Cajun90]

We've seen first hand that it is nearly impossible for a mid major to finish with top 8 RPI and that is a major flaw.

We are at a disadvantage and for now have to operate under the system in place (RPI) but we have to be much more proactive in our approach to scheduling to limit the impacts of that disadvantage.

You think it is a fluke that our softball team is probably going to host back to back regionals while playing in the SBC? Maybe just maybe there has been some extra thought going into their scheduling.

Wayne Graham over at Rice gets it but very few other college baseball coaches truly understand what they need to do. They immediately think they have to try and play potential high RPI teams but that isn't the case at all. What you need to do is try your best to schedule teams that don't kill your OWP. Obviously you want to try and maximize those teams that help it as well.

Eastern Illinois this year is a prime example of what I think was poor RPI scheduling. We scheduled four games against a team that hasn't had a winning season in the past five years. Based on history we should have known these guys were going to add at least 100 loses to our OWP and in reality they are going to add 120 to 130 loses to our OWP. With a team like that you have to treat them like your investment portfolio and diversify. Pick up a game with them but not four games! No one has a crystal ball to tell what a team will do from year to year but history can say a lot about who gives you the best odds of having a decent winning percentage.

The system certainly puts us at a disadvantage and I know there is a long list of concerns and issues when building out a schedule but we can't just ignore the RPI impact and hope for the best. If you proactively manage your OOC schedule you can do better and softball has proven that.

[cajunhawk]

We are at a disadvantage and for now have to operate under the system in place (RPI) but we have to be much more proactive in our approach to scheduling to limit the impacts of that disadvantage.

You think it is a fluke that our softball team is probably going to host back to back regionals while playing in the SBC? Maybe just maybe there has been some extra thought going into their scheduling.

Wayne Graham over at Rice gets it but very few other college baseball coaches truly understand what they need to do. They immediately think they have to try and play potential high RPI teams but that isn't the case at all. What you need to do is try your best to schedule teams that don't kill your OWP. Obviously you want to try and maximize those teams that help it as well.

Eastern Illinois this year is a prime example of what I think was poor RPI scheduling. We scheduled four games against a team that hasn't had a winning season in the past five years. Based on history we should have known these guys were going to add at least 100 loses to our OWP and in reality they are going to add 120 to 130 loses to our OWP. With a team like that you have to treat them like your investment portfolio and diversify. Pick up a game with them but not four games! No one has a crystal ball to tell what a team will do from year to year but history can say a lot about who gives you the best odds of having a decent winning percentage.

The system certainly puts us at a disadvantage and I know there is a long list of concerns and issues when building out a schedule but we can't just ignore the RPI impact and hope for the best. If you proactively manage your OOC schedule you can do better and softball has proven that.

So you are saying Tony needs a Magic 8 Ball?