Baseball Rankings - 4/21

[CajunRage]

I think some clarity to what I have said is important here. It is not nearly as simplistic as you state here.

For a more complete explanation, read this post .

I have said that the polls are not officially part of the selection process. I do think that they have some subjective value/influence. But the data in recent years (2010->2014) shows that the committee is not influenced by the polls . but is a slave to the RPI . and selects counter to the polls if that is what the RPI says to do. This does not mean . however . that the polls could not have an influence this time. But I do think it would be erroneous to expect that it will be different this time. The trend remains the same . until it does not.


Patently not true. If the Cajuns win, their RPI will go up. Quite nicely if they were to win them all . which they will not. All other things being equal, of course.

Brian

I should have clarified that I don't think it will go up enough to be top 8. I respect your stance on "until the trend changes". I'm just looking a different direction to get over the RPI obsession that is making us all crazy. Not trying to eliminate your raginpagin job though. Haha.

We have an opportunity to do something that there are no trends for. As stated earlier, no mid major team has ever been #1 come selection time. ~70% of the teams in college baseball are not in the money conferences and could possibly make a big enough stink to warrant change if a team goes against the odds and gets snubbed of a national seed.

We finish on top of every poll, our RPI will be as good as it could be. One can't happen without the other. Watching us hover around 1,2,3 is much easier on the heart than watching the roller coast that is RPI. That is all I'm saying.

[Cajun90]

We've seen first hand that it is nearly impossible for a mid major to finish with top 8 RPI and that is a major flaw.

We are at a disadvantage and for now have to operate under the system in place (RPI) but we have to be much more proactive in our approach to scheduling to limit the impacts of that disadvantage.

You think it is a fluke that our softball team is probably going to host back to back regionals while playing in the SBC? Maybe just maybe there has been some extra thought going into their scheduling.

Wayne Graham over at Rice gets it but very few other college baseball coaches truly understand what they need to do. They immediately think they have to try and play potential high RPI teams but that isn't the case at all. What you need to do is try your best to schedule teams that don't kill your OWP. Obviously you want to try and maximize those teams that help it as well.

Eastern Illinois this year is a prime example of what I think was poor RPI scheduling. We scheduled four games against a team that hasn't had a winning season in the past five years. Based on history we should have known these guys were going to add at least 100 loses to our OWP and in reality they are going to add 120 to 130 loses to our OWP. With a team like that you have to treat them like your investment portfolio and diversify. Pick up a game with them but not four games! No one has a crystal ball to tell what a team will do from year to year but history can say a lot about who gives you the best odds of having a decent winning percentage.

The system certainly puts us at a disadvantage and I know there is a long list of concerns and issues when building out a schedule but we can't just ignore the RPI impact and hope for the best. If you proactively manage your OOC schedule you can do better and softball has proven that.

[cajunhawk]

We are at a disadvantage and for now have to operate under the system in place (RPI) but we have to be much more proactive in our approach to scheduling to limit the impacts of that disadvantage.

You think it is a fluke that our softball team is probably going to host back to back regionals while playing in the SBC? Maybe just maybe there has been some extra thought going into their scheduling.

Wayne Graham over at Rice gets it but very few other college baseball coaches truly understand what they need to do. They immediately think they have to try and play potential high RPI teams but that isn't the case at all. What you need to do is try your best to schedule teams that don't kill your OWP. Obviously you want to try and maximize those teams that help it as well.

Eastern Illinois this year is a prime example of what I think was poor RPI scheduling. We scheduled four games against a team that hasn't had a winning season in the past five years. Based on history we should have known these guys were going to add at least 100 loses to our OWP and in reality they are going to add 120 to 130 loses to our OWP. With a team like that you have to treat them like your investment portfolio and diversify. Pick up a game with them but not four games! No one has a crystal ball to tell what a team will do from year to year but history can say a lot about who gives you the best odds of having a decent winning percentage.

The system certainly puts us at a disadvantage and I know there is a long list of concerns and issues when building out a schedule but we can't just ignore the RPI impact and hope for the best. If you proactively manage your OOC schedule you can do better and softball has proven that.

So you are saying Tony needs a Magic 8 Ball?

[campo118]

No. What he is saying is whoever does the schedule needs to schedule perennially winning teams in bad conferences.

[GoneGolfin]

We have an opportunity to do something that there are no trends for. As stated earlier, no mid major team has ever been #1 come selection time. ~70% of the teams in college baseball are not in the money conferences and could possibly make a big enough stink to warrant change if a team goes against the odds and gets snubbed of a national seed.

No . Cal-Irvine was #1 in two of the polls at selection time in 2009. The selection committee awarded them a #6 seed. This was also during an era where the selection committee gave the West coast some leniency when it came to the RPI (they are aware of the regional bias) and teams (especially from the Pac-10, but CSF as well) earned national seeds with RPIs well outside of the Top 8. But things tightened up considerably beginning with the 2010 season.

I updated my prior post with some interesting data points from 2010->2013.

And BTW, the Cajuns could certainly finish Top 8 in RPI if they win the remainder of their games. But that is not happening.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

No. What he is saying is whoever does the schedule needs to schedule perennially winning teams in bad conferences.

The is just one element of my "smart scheduling" process. :-)

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

We are at a disadvantage and for now have to operate under the system in place (RPI) but we have to be much more proactive in our approach to scheduling to limit the impacts of that disadvantage.

You think it is a fluke that our softball team is probably going to host back to back regionals while playing in the SBC? Maybe just maybe there has been some extra thought going into their scheduling.

And we all know that baseball schedules further out than softball, making it more difficult. But improvements can still be made within those constraints. And just because a team is on the schedule one or two years out, it does not mean that you cannot make some adjustments. You can also either leave a spot or two open on the schedule to add a game or two during the season . making yourself available to a team that may have a rainout or otherwise an open spot themselves. There are some creative things that can be done to improve the situation. I am not a "can't do it person". There is always a way.

Brian

[Bandwagon King]

That's a .923 winning percentage. Well, it's not perfect.

Better check your calculator.

[Bandwagon King]

I see it differently. What can we do to improve our chances at hosting as a national seed? Play better competition - can't change that. Hope our opponents play well - can't control that. We can, though, go on a tear and convince every voter that we are one of the best teams in the country and make the committee convince themselves otherwise. I know Brian will come and tell me that polls don't matter. Our RPI will not improve even if we win, so why not make some noise and hopefully give cause for a change in the formula. This season is all that is important right now. But it would be nice to get the RPI formula changed for our future teams. We've seen first hand that it is nearly impossible for a mid major to finish with top 8 RPI and that is a major flaw.

They've been on a tear. They just need to stay the course & not have any bad losses like Sunday again.

[Cajunjeb]

Better check your calculator.

Your right. .878

[cajunhawk]

They've been on a tear. They just need to stay the course & not have any bad losses like Sunday again.

Most of the rest of the way save for maybe Arkansas State is considered a bad loss if we drop one. Gonna be tough.the baseball gods are fickle and can turn on you in a moment's notice.see 9th inning this past Sunday.