Comparing the Top 8/16 RPI at this time to 2013 ...

[lcitsh]

Brian

I know you meant this as a baseball thread, but I would like for you to address how Missouri's 2 losses to 12-23 Iowa last night will help the Cajun softball team.

[Cajun90]

So could you be any more non committal? Think I'm heading downtown to find a dice game. My chances are better with that. LOL

[J-Town Cajun]

I agree Brian it will be very tough to maintain our RPI ranking where it is at and honestly I believe it will fall. I think if we maintain a high ranking in the polls and continue to show everyone we are one of the best teams, I believe and it's just a hunch that we will be rewarded with a national seed. Of course we will need certain thinks to fall our way as you have mentioned. Time will tell.

[GoneGolfin]

So could you be any more non committal? Think I'm heading downtown to find a dice game. My chances are better with that. LOL

I am taking you off my Christmas card list.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

Brian

I know you meant this as a baseball thread, but I would like for you to address how Missouri's 2 losses to 12-23 Iowa last night will help the Cajun softball team.

While Iowa is much better than their 10-23 record (entering the DH) indicates (they have played one of the toughest schedules in the country … along with Missouri), these losses are going to do a fair amount of damage to Missouri's RPI. That is a .3030 OWP (X2) contribution to Missouri's RPI. While the OOWP contribution will be strong, it will be overwhelmed by the OWP contribution.

Missouri only led Louisiana by .0041 going into that DH. No doubt that Missouri has now fallen below the Cajuns entering the weekend. It is possible that with the win over McNeese State and taking into account the Oregon win over California tonight, that the Cajuns could be temporarily ahead of Oregon as well … up to #5. But Troy is going to hurt the Cajuns' RPI this weekend.

Brian

[lcitsh]

While Iowa is much better than their 10-23 record (entering the DH) indicates (they have played one of the toughest schedules in the country … along with Missouri), these losses are going to do a fair amount of damage to Missouri's RPI. That is a .3030 OWP (X2) contribution to Missouri's RPI. While the OOWP contribution will be strong, it will be overwhelmed by the OWP contribution.

Missouri only led Louisiana by .0041 going into that DH. No doubt that Missouri has now fallen below the Cajuns entering the weekend. It is possible that with the win over McNeese State and taking into account the Oregon win over California tonight, that the Cajuns could be temporarily ahead of Oregon as well … up to #5. But Troy is going to hurt the Cajuns' RPI this weekend.

Brian

Which is why the forecast for Troy on Friday is good news and Saturday is bad news for us. Thanks for the mathematical analysis.

[GoneGolfin]

I agree Brian it will be very tough to maintain our RPI ranking where it is at and honestly I believe it will fall. I think if we maintain a high ranking in the polls and continue to show everyone we are one of the best teams, I believe and it's just a hunch that we will be rewarded with a national seed. Of course we will need certain thinks to fall our way as you have mentioned. Time will tell.

So it seems that the positioning of the Cajuns in the polls is what is fueling your optimism … optimism that the Cajuns' positioning in the polls will potentially override/overrule what the RPI (and possibly other factors) is telling the selection committee.

I think in general that the publicity the Cajuns have received this season will somewhat influence the committee (subjectivity) … and by publicity I am referring to not only polls, but media coverage. All of this buzz helps acclimate the selection committee to the Cajuns being a top team. I think it also provides them some cover to designate them a top team … which is important as the Cajuns are not a traditional national seed selection. All selection committees want to hear that they have performed their job well and do not want hard critical questions.

But I do not think this influence (whatever it is) is new. It has always been there. Thus, I think that the recent hard data (selection data) paints a good picture of what to expect. I say recent, because in my 24 years of following the process closely, I have seen several trend changes. The last four seasons have painted a consistent trend (2010->2013). These trend changes can happen for a variety of reasons. Things changed when the RPI was first introduced. They change when the makeup of the selection committee significantly changes … or has new leadership. So, I am always open to the possibility that things will be different this time. But until I see evidence that this is the case, I think it is prudent to illustrate and project based on what is revealed by the recent trends. And I think that it is important to have hard quantifiable data to support, not primarily emotion (this is the difficult part).

As far as the polls are concerned, the recent data does illustrate that they are not a real influencer. But I also offer that the sample size of a team being specifically #1 or #2 in the polls (thus generating media buzz) and outside of the Top 8 RPI … is nonexistent. The data does illustrate many scenarios where teams in the Top 8 (polls) are not national seeds when not Top 8 (RPI) and vice-versa. For example, there are a handful of examples where teams ranked as high as #4, #5, #6, #7, and #8 had RPIs not far outside the Top 8 at #10, #11, #13, and #15 that did not receive national seeds. The reverse can be said for even more examples where teams ranked outside the Top 8 (polls) had RPIs in the Top 8 … and were awarded national seeds.

Something also to consider … I have heard several post selection media interviews where the topic of polls surfaced and was dismissed by the individual being questioned. However, there was one time when the individual being questioned definitely gave the impression that the committee felt that the work they were doing was considerably more detailed and thorough than the effort and work that went into the weekly polls. I think that you can read between the lines to determine the message that was being conveyed.

Now, do I think the selection committee would pass over a team ranked #1, #2, or even #3 with an RPI outside of the Top 8? Probably not. But I think at the end of the season, if the Cajuns are actually ranked that high, their RPI might very well be #8, #9, or #10. But I also think that the Cajuns are not ranked in the Top 4 or 5 if they add five more losses to their record … the remaining schedule being what it is. The Cajuns are where they are in the polls in large part because of only four losses in 38 games … with a 3-1 record against top SEC competition being somewhat of a validator.

As far as the polls are concerned … folks can refer to this post concerning the usage of polls in the selection process.

Brian

[J-Town Cajun]

So it seems that the positioning of the Cajuns in the polls is what is fueling your optimism … optimism that the Cajuns' positioning in the polls will potentially override/overrule what the RPI (and possibly other factors) is telling the selection committee.

I think in general that the publicity the Cajuns have received this season will somewhat influence the committee (subjectivity) … and by publicity I am referring to not only polls, but media coverage. All of this buzz helps acclimate the selection committee to the Cajuns being a top team. I think it also provides them some cover to designate them a top team … which is important as the Cajuns are not a traditional national seed selection. All selection committees want to hear that they have performed their job well and do not want hard critical questions.

But I do not think this influence (whatever it is) is new. It has always been there. Thus, I think that the recent hard data (selection data) paints a good picture of what to expect. I say recent, because in my 24 years of following the process closely, I have seen several trend changes. The last four seasons have painted a consistent trend (2010->2013). These trend changes can happen for a variety of reasons. Things changed when the RPI was first introduced. They change when the makeup of the selection committee significantly changes … or has new leadership. So, I am always open to the possibility that things will be different this time. But until I see evidence that this is the case, I think it is prudent to illustrate and project based on what is revealed by the recent trends. And I think that it is important to have hard quantifiable data to support, not primarily emotion (this is the difficult part).

As far as the polls are concerned, the recent data does illustrate that they are not a real influencer. But I also offer that the sample size of a team being specifically #1 or #2 in the polls (thus generating media buzz) and outside of the Top 8 RPI … is nonexistent. The data does illustrate many scenarios where teams in the Top 8 (polls) are not national seeds when not Top 8 (RPI) and vice-versa. For example, there are a handful of examples where teams ranked as high as #4, #5, #6, #7, and #8 had RPIs not far outside the Top 8 at #10, #11, #13, and #15 that did not receive national seeds. The reverse can be said for even more examples where teams ranked outside the Top 8 (polls) had RPIs in the Top 8 … and were awarded national seeds.

Something also to consider … I have heard several post selection media interviews where the topic of polls surfaced and was dismissed by the individual being questioned. However, there was one time where the individual being questioned definitely gave the impression that the committee felt that the work they were doing was considerably more detailed and thorough than the effort and work that went into the weekly polls. I think that you can read between the lines to determine the message that was being conveyed.

Now, do I think the selection committee would pass over a team ranked #1, #2, or even #3 with an RPI outside of the Top 8? Probably not. But I think at the end of the season, if the Cajuns are actually ranked that high, their RPI might very well be #8, #9, or #10. But I also think that the Cajuns are not ranked in the Top 4 or 5 if they add five more losses to their record … the remaining schedule being what it is. The Cajuns are where they are in the polls in large part because of only four losses in 38 games … with a 3-1 record against top SEC competition being somewhat of a validator.

As far as the polls are concerned … folks can refer to this post concerning the usage of polls in the selection process.

Brian

Right on! This is exactly where I am coming from. And I totally see where you are coming from using recent objective data and trends. I don't believe I am letting emotion effect my opinion here as I am trying to look at this as if I was on the selection committee and was non bias. It would be hard to believe the committee would award a top 8 national seed to a team that was ranked in the top 6 for the entire 2nd half of the season and ranked as high as #1-2 in every poll. My guess is 4 and no more than 5 loses may do it for UL and that will include winning every series, regular season, and conference tourney championship. At this point a conference championship will be the most difficult thing we have left to accomplish the remainder of the season except the CWS itself. We will also need to stay away from any 2 loss and definetely 3 loss weeks as a 3 loss week we may drop 10 spots in the polls or more. 4 losses means 1 loss every other week the remainder of the season, this will keep us steady in the polls.
All this being said, I totally understand if there are 10 other teams from major conferences who goes on some serious runs to finish the season who are already say top 15 we will likely be on the outside looking in. But I don't think this will happen as to some extent those teams will beat up on each other's and will jokey up and down the polls.

[J-Town Cajun]

And with the win tonight the Cajuns fall to #10 in the RPI.

[cajundiehard]

And with the win tonight the Cajuns fall to #10 in the RPI.

Cajun opponents not doing their job. It has dropped steadily since Monday when it was .6012. That would now be good enough for #5 (tie with Texas)

It was .5957 right before the W and increased to .5959 once the W was included. This is compared to .5974 entering the night.

Argh. Only so much the Cajuns can control...

Yikes! And now .5953 (10th)

Guess that shows how fast it can change. ..

[jumboragncajun]

The SEC snowball effect that Brian predicted is building momentum. Our wins are nearly cancelled out by the crappy OWP being added into our RPI, while SEC teams are gaining points in all three categories with wins. This may be painful to watch play out. All we can really do is hope to come home with 3.9 wins on the weekend.

[cajundiehard]

The good news, IMHO, is that after the UTA game, the next 9 games should really help the RPI if they take care of business... or at least not hurt the RPI as everyone has at least a winning record...

McNeese 19-17
Texas State (x3) 20-17
Southeastern (x2) - 26-13
Ark State (x3) 22-15

Then South Alabama and ULM with losing records... although USA can correct it before we get to them... Should we start a rain dance now?