Comparing the Top 8/16 RPI at this time to 2013 ...

[GoneGolfin]

All very good and valid points. And you are right in saying no one can predict the outcomes on so many wins or loses because so much depends on what happens to the other teams. But I still believe even with 4 loses and with the right scenarios the Cajuns could be a national seed. It's all fun to come here and make an educated guess, not being foolish at all.

I was not referencing your making predictions and educated guesses. I specifically used the word "unequivocally". Everybody makes their predictions/guesses and it is all good. I was referring to your guarantee statements such as … "If this team only loses 5 more games and wins the conference tournament we will finish the season with 50 wins before selection day. No way we don't get a national seed.". If you remove that last statement, it's all good.

Nor do I think your predictions are foolish. Their predictions. It was just a few weeks ago you stated the Cajuns would almost have to win out to remain in the RPI top 16.

No. First, that was not a hard prediction … it was an indication of where the Cajuns sit at present (and down the stretch) with respect to the RPI. I have been qualifying my statements in terms of either the current RPI values or what the RPI values have been in the past at selection time … as well as how our opponents perform, opponents' opponents perform … and the teams around us in the RPI (all other things being equal). I try to do this in almost every post concerning this type of material … and if you read my posts, you know what I am talking about. And if I missed a qualifier, I was being lazy or forgot to add it. The qualifiers for this stuff are tiresome, but I try to include them. You simply cannot make blanket statements when it comes to predicting an RPI finish given the number of wins/losses in remaining games. We discuss this at length when Boyd posts his RPI needs report.

Well due to the numbers you pointed out last night with the top team's RPI being down this year it now seems much more realistic. Anyway it will be fun to watch this thing shake out. Thanks for your contributions to this site. Many of us look forward to your post.

If the trends hold, certainly the numbers I illustrated give the Cajuns more breathing room. That was the point of my post. But even with those numbers, five more losses would be extremely difficult to nail down a Top 8 RPI … as well as a national seed. In fact, all other things being equal, their RPI would fall to #13 (an RPI value of .5945). It could be several spots worse quite easily if the teams with the more favorable schedules down the stretch slightly increase their RPI, which is more likely than not (depends on the teams around the Cajuns). Many things would need to go in favor of the Cajuns for the Cajuns to finish Top 8 RPI and/or obtain a national seed (with 5 more losses or even 4 more losses). It is more unlikely than likely. But I would not say "No way we get a national seed … just like I would not say "No way we don't get a national seed".

Brian

[Dad04]

A mid-major getting a national seed is the exception to the rule. Don't shoot the messenger. The Cajuns need to be good AND lucky for a national seed, based on the supported data Brian has presented.

[lcitsh]

Brian

I know you meant this as a baseball thread, but I would like for you to address how Missouri's 2 losses to 12-23 Iowa last night will help the Cajun softball team.

[Cajun90]

So could you be any more non committal? Think I'm heading downtown to find a dice game. My chances are better with that. LOL

[J-Town Cajun]

I agree Brian it will be very tough to maintain our RPI ranking where it is at and honestly I believe it will fall. I think if we maintain a high ranking in the polls and continue to show everyone we are one of the best teams, I believe and it's just a hunch that we will be rewarded with a national seed. Of course we will need certain thinks to fall our way as you have mentioned. Time will tell.

[GoneGolfin]

So could you be any more non committal? Think I'm heading downtown to find a dice game. My chances are better with that. LOL

I am taking you off my Christmas card list.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

Brian

I know you meant this as a baseball thread, but I would like for you to address how Missouri's 2 losses to 12-23 Iowa last night will help the Cajun softball team.

While Iowa is much better than their 10-23 record (entering the DH) indicates (they have played one of the toughest schedules in the country … along with Missouri), these losses are going to do a fair amount of damage to Missouri's RPI. That is a .3030 OWP (X2) contribution to Missouri's RPI. While the OOWP contribution will be strong, it will be overwhelmed by the OWP contribution.

Missouri only led Louisiana by .0041 going into that DH. No doubt that Missouri has now fallen below the Cajuns entering the weekend. It is possible that with the win over McNeese State and taking into account the Oregon win over California tonight, that the Cajuns could be temporarily ahead of Oregon as well … up to #5. But Troy is going to hurt the Cajuns' RPI this weekend.

Brian

[lcitsh]

While Iowa is much better than their 10-23 record (entering the DH) indicates (they have played one of the toughest schedules in the country … along with Missouri), these losses are going to do a fair amount of damage to Missouri's RPI. That is a .3030 OWP (X2) contribution to Missouri's RPI. While the OOWP contribution will be strong, it will be overwhelmed by the OWP contribution.

Missouri only led Louisiana by .0041 going into that DH. No doubt that Missouri has now fallen below the Cajuns entering the weekend. It is possible that with the win over McNeese State and taking into account the Oregon win over California tonight, that the Cajuns could be temporarily ahead of Oregon as well … up to #5. But Troy is going to hurt the Cajuns' RPI this weekend.

Brian

Which is why the forecast for Troy on Friday is good news and Saturday is bad news for us. Thanks for the mathematical analysis.

[GoneGolfin]

I agree Brian it will be very tough to maintain our RPI ranking where it is at and honestly I believe it will fall. I think if we maintain a high ranking in the polls and continue to show everyone we are one of the best teams, I believe and it's just a hunch that we will be rewarded with a national seed. Of course we will need certain thinks to fall our way as you have mentioned. Time will tell.

So it seems that the positioning of the Cajuns in the polls is what is fueling your optimism … optimism that the Cajuns' positioning in the polls will potentially override/overrule what the RPI (and possibly other factors) is telling the selection committee.

I think in general that the publicity the Cajuns have received this season will somewhat influence the committee (subjectivity) … and by publicity I am referring to not only polls, but media coverage. All of this buzz helps acclimate the selection committee to the Cajuns being a top team. I think it also provides them some cover to designate them a top team … which is important as the Cajuns are not a traditional national seed selection. All selection committees want to hear that they have performed their job well and do not want hard critical questions.

But I do not think this influence (whatever it is) is new. It has always been there. Thus, I think that the recent hard data (selection data) paints a good picture of what to expect. I say recent, because in my 24 years of following the process closely, I have seen several trend changes. The last four seasons have painted a consistent trend (2010->2013). These trend changes can happen for a variety of reasons. Things changed when the RPI was first introduced. They change when the makeup of the selection committee significantly changes … or has new leadership. So, I am always open to the possibility that things will be different this time. But until I see evidence that this is the case, I think it is prudent to illustrate and project based on what is revealed by the recent trends. And I think that it is important to have hard quantifiable data to support, not primarily emotion (this is the difficult part).

As far as the polls are concerned, the recent data does illustrate that they are not a real influencer. But I also offer that the sample size of a team being specifically #1 or #2 in the polls (thus generating media buzz) and outside of the Top 8 RPI … is nonexistent. The data does illustrate many scenarios where teams in the Top 8 (polls) are not national seeds when not Top 8 (RPI) and vice-versa. For example, there are a handful of examples where teams ranked as high as #4, #5, #6, #7, and #8 had RPIs not far outside the Top 8 at #10, #11, #13, and #15 that did not receive national seeds. The reverse can be said for even more examples where teams ranked outside the Top 8 (polls) had RPIs in the Top 8 … and were awarded national seeds.

Something also to consider … I have heard several post selection media interviews where the topic of polls surfaced and was dismissed by the individual being questioned. However, there was one time when the individual being questioned definitely gave the impression that the committee felt that the work they were doing was considerably more detailed and thorough than the effort and work that went into the weekly polls. I think that you can read between the lines to determine the message that was being conveyed.

Now, do I think the selection committee would pass over a team ranked #1, #2, or even #3 with an RPI outside of the Top 8? Probably not. But I think at the end of the season, if the Cajuns are actually ranked that high, their RPI might very well be #8, #9, or #10. But I also think that the Cajuns are not ranked in the Top 4 or 5 if they add five more losses to their record … the remaining schedule being what it is. The Cajuns are where they are in the polls in large part because of only four losses in 38 games … with a 3-1 record against top SEC competition being somewhat of a validator.

As far as the polls are concerned … folks can refer to this post concerning the usage of polls in the selection process.

Brian

[J-Town Cajun]

So it seems that the positioning of the Cajuns in the polls is what is fueling your optimism … optimism that the Cajuns' positioning in the polls will potentially override/overrule what the RPI (and possibly other factors) is telling the selection committee.

I think in general that the publicity the Cajuns have received this season will somewhat influence the committee (subjectivity) … and by publicity I am referring to not only polls, but media coverage. All of this buzz helps acclimate the selection committee to the Cajuns being a top team. I think it also provides them some cover to designate them a top team … which is important as the Cajuns are not a traditional national seed selection. All selection committees want to hear that they have performed their job well and do not want hard critical questions.

But I do not think this influence (whatever it is) is new. It has always been there. Thus, I think that the recent hard data (selection data) paints a good picture of what to expect. I say recent, because in my 24 years of following the process closely, I have seen several trend changes. The last four seasons have painted a consistent trend (2010->2013). These trend changes can happen for a variety of reasons. Things changed when the RPI was first introduced. They change when the makeup of the selection committee significantly changes … or has new leadership. So, I am always open to the possibility that things will be different this time. But until I see evidence that this is the case, I think it is prudent to illustrate and project based on what is revealed by the recent trends. And I think that it is important to have hard quantifiable data to support, not primarily emotion (this is the difficult part).

As far as the polls are concerned, the recent data does illustrate that they are not a real influencer. But I also offer that the sample size of a team being specifically #1 or #2 in the polls (thus generating media buzz) and outside of the Top 8 RPI … is nonexistent. The data does illustrate many scenarios where teams in the Top 8 (polls) are not national seeds when not Top 8 (RPI) and vice-versa. For example, there are a handful of examples where teams ranked as high as #4, #5, #6, #7, and #8 had RPIs not far outside the Top 8 at #10, #11, #13, and #15 that did not receive national seeds. The reverse can be said for even more examples where teams ranked outside the Top 8 (polls) had RPIs in the Top 8 … and were awarded national seeds.

Something also to consider … I have heard several post selection media interviews where the topic of polls surfaced and was dismissed by the individual being questioned. However, there was one time where the individual being questioned definitely gave the impression that the committee felt that the work they were doing was considerably more detailed and thorough than the effort and work that went into the weekly polls. I think that you can read between the lines to determine the message that was being conveyed.

Now, do I think the selection committee would pass over a team ranked #1, #2, or even #3 with an RPI outside of the Top 8? Probably not. But I think at the end of the season, if the Cajuns are actually ranked that high, their RPI might very well be #8, #9, or #10. But I also think that the Cajuns are not ranked in the Top 4 or 5 if they add five more losses to their record … the remaining schedule being what it is. The Cajuns are where they are in the polls in large part because of only four losses in 38 games … with a 3-1 record against top SEC competition being somewhat of a validator.

As far as the polls are concerned … folks can refer to this post concerning the usage of polls in the selection process.

Brian

Right on! This is exactly where I am coming from. And I totally see where you are coming from using recent objective data and trends. I don't believe I am letting emotion effect my opinion here as I am trying to look at this as if I was on the selection committee and was non bias. It would be hard to believe the committee would award a top 8 national seed to a team that was ranked in the top 6 for the entire 2nd half of the season and ranked as high as #1-2 in every poll. My guess is 4 and no more than 5 loses may do it for UL and that will include winning every series, regular season, and conference tourney championship. At this point a conference championship will be the most difficult thing we have left to accomplish the remainder of the season except the CWS itself. We will also need to stay away from any 2 loss and definetely 3 loss weeks as a 3 loss week we may drop 10 spots in the polls or more. 4 losses means 1 loss every other week the remainder of the season, this will keep us steady in the polls.
All this being said, I totally understand if there are 10 other teams from major conferences who goes on some serious runs to finish the season who are already say top 15 we will likely be on the outside looking in. But I don't think this will happen as to some extent those teams will beat up on each other's and will jokey up and down the polls.