Comparing the Top 8/16 RPI at this time to 2013 ...

[GoneGolfin]

One thing I have noticed this year is that the RPIs being logged by the Top 16 RPI ... and especially the Top 8 ... are substantially lower than last year (2013); the first year under the RPI formula change. 2012 Top 16 RPI values are also substantially higher than 2014 ... but that comparison is less useful as the formula was different.

What this means is that there is more RPI parity at the top this season. The Cajuns are benefitting from potential national seeds losing more games than usual and posting lower than normal RPIs.

The 2014 RPI Top 8 has 64 losses through 4/13/2014 (and that includes the Cajuns with only 4 losses) ... while the 2013 RPI Top 8 had 44 losses (20 fewer losses) through 4/15/2013. The RPI Top 16 is closer with 2014 posting 141.5 losses vs. 134.5 losses for 2013.

2014 RPI vs. 2013 RPI -> Difference
--
#1 (.62049) vs. #1 (.65035) -> -.02986
#2 (.61731) vs. #1 (.64274) -> -.02543
#3 (.61626) vs. #3 (.63855) -> -.02229
#4 (.60849) vs. #4 (.63552) -> -.02703
#5 (.60456) vs. #5 (.61558) -> -.01102
#6 (.60412) vs. #6 (.61502) -> -.01090
#7 (.60134) vs. #7 (.61118) -> -.00984
#8 (.59943) vs. #8 (.60890) -> -.00947
--
#9 (.59895) vs. #9 (.60748) -> -.00853
#10 (.59585) vs. #10 (.60432) -> -.00847
#11 (.59547) vs. #11 (.60080) -> -.00533
#12 (.59481) vs. #12 (.60040) -> -.00559
#13 (.59069) vs. #13 (.59970) -> -.00901
#14 (.59051) vs. #14 (.59450) -> -.00399
#15 (.59040) vs. #15 (.59398) -> -.00358
#16 (.58568) vs. #16 (.59331) -> -.00763

As you can see above, the #8 RPI in 2014 would have had an RPI ranking of #14 at this time last season.

Brian

[DieHard1280]

One thing I have noticed this year is that the RPIs being logged by the Top 16 RPI ... and especially the Top 8 ... are substantially lower than last year (2013); the first year under the RPI formula change. 2012 Top 16 RPI values are also substantially higher than 2014 ... but that comparison is less useful as the formula was different.

What this means is that there is more RPI parity at the top this season. The Cajuns are benefitting from potential national seeds losing more games than usual and posting lower than normal RPIs.

The 2014 RPI Top 8 has 64 losses through 4/13/2014 (and that includes the Cajuns with only 4 losses) ... while the 2013 RPI Top 8 had 44 losses (20 fewer losses) through 4/15/2013. The RPI Top 16 is closer with 2014 posting 141.5 losses vs. 134.5 losses for 2013.

2014 RPI vs. 2013 RPI -> Difference
--
#1 (.62049) vs. #1 (.65035) -> -.02986
#2 (.61731) vs. #1 (.64274) -> -.02543
#3 (.61626) vs. #3 (.63855) -> -.02229
#4 (.60849) vs. #4 (.63552) -> -.02703
#5 (.60456) vs. #5 (.61558) -> -.01102
#6 (.60412) vs. #6 (.61502) -> -.01090
#7 (.60134) vs. #7 (.61118) -> -.00984
#8 (.59943) vs. #8 (.60890) -> -.00947
--
#9 (.59895) vs. #9 (.60748) -> -.00853
#10 (.59585) vs. #10 (.60432) -> -.00847
#11 (.59547) vs. #11 (.60080) -> -.00533
#12 (.59481) vs. #12 (.60040) -> -.00559
#13 (.59069) vs. #13 (.59970) -> -.00901
#14 (.59051) vs. #14 (.59450) -> -.00399
#15 (.59040) vs. #15 (.59398) -> -.00358
#16 (.58568) vs. #16 (.59331) -> -.00763

As you can see above, the #8 RPI in 2014 would have had an RPI ranking of #14 at this time last season.

Brian

I'll take it!!

[GoneGolfin]

... and South Carolina has gone down again (back2back nights and four consecutive losses) ... this time against a 14-23 Citadel team on the road.

Brian

[J-Town Cajun]

The teams at the top continue to drop games and this just helps the Cajuns stick around RPI wise. Yes we will drop. If we win 80-85% of our remaining games I belive we will be a national seed. When our loses occur and they will happen, it will be very important to the selection committe. It's very important to win each series and taking the conference tournament will go a long way also.

[cajundiehard]

It all comes down to the RPI... All the Cajuns can do is go out and take care of their own business and hopefully their opponents will take care of theirs... and see where we are at the end of this... Cajuns will not get a national seed without a top 8 RPI. I would be shocked. Based on what he's posted, I'm pretty sure Brian would be shocked as well - and HE is the man. Cajuns might even get screwed out of a national seed with a 7 or 8 RPI....

To get a national seed, I would think the Cajuns need sweeps against UTA and Texas State and ULM (pray for rain and in the mean time & root for ULM since their contribution to us will contribute 6 times - more than any other team on our schedule... EIU's 4 games next... so that is 10 "not good" games at this point)... and take care of business mid-week and then MAYBE Cajuns could afford a loss @ASU and/or @USA... since the 2 wins (1.3) each would be weighted more heavily than the loss (.7).

As far as the conference tournament is concerned... aren't national seeds and host sites selected before (or maybe during) the conference tournament? So that may become moot at some point...

South Carolina dropped behind the Cajuns with that loss. Cajun RPI took a hit from .6002 to .5995 after the WKU loss and is back up to .5999 after the Alabama win over UAB. I'm sure there are some others out there impacting the Cajun OOWP as well...

Regardless, the Cajun RPI now ranks at # 7 on WarrenNolan...

http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2014/rpi

[cajundiehard]

BTW - Kind of strange - but because of Easter - several conferences start their weekend series' tomorrow and will play Thurs/Fri/Sat... So several games to keep an eye on tomorrow night... Southland and CUSA - even some AAC and SEC (LSU)...

[CajunEXPRESS]

This is something Robe has been preaching to the SBC members. Why they cannot see Easter being an important holiday for the teams is baffling.

[moorecajun]

This is something Robe has been preaching to the SBC members. Why they cannot see Easter being an important holiday for the teams is baffling.

I'm with you there ... maybe we (UL) need to take the lead next year on this.

[GoneGolfin]

It all comes down to the RPI... All the Cajuns can do is go out and take care of their own business and hopefully their opponents will take care of theirs... and see where we are at the end of this... Cajuns will not get a national seed without a top 8 RPI. I would be shocked. Based on what he's posted, I'm pretty sure Brian would be shocked as well - and HE is the man. Cajuns might even get screwed out of a national seed with a 7 or 8 RPI....

Shocked? Nothing much shocks me anymore. Surprised? Yes. The trend in the last four years says otherwise … a team from a non-elite conference (Conference RPI Top 4) with an RPI outside of the Top 8 earning a national seed. Consider the following teams that were not awarded national seeds …

2013
Indiana (RPI #12), 1st place Big Ten (Conference RPI rank of 6)
2012
Purdue (RPI #8), 1st place Big Ten (Conference RPI rank of 10)
Arizona (RPI #14), Pac-12 tied for 1st (Conference RPI rank of 3) ** National Champions **
2011
Georgia Tech (RPI #8), ACC tied for 1st (Conference RPI rank of 2)
Arizona State (RPI #9), Pac-10 2nd place (Conference RPI rank of 4)
Texas A&M (RPI #10), Big XII tied for 1st (Conference RPI rank of 3)
Cal State-Fullerton (RPI #13), 1st place Big West (Conference RPI rank of 10)
2010
Cal State-Fullerton (RPI #11), 1st place Big West (Conference RPI rank of 8)


The teams that have been awarded national seeds outside of the Top 8 RPI in the last four years were not far outside of the Top 8 (9, 11, 11, 12, 10) and all came from the ACC (1), SEC (1), Pac-12 (1), Big XII (1) … with the lone exception being Rice in 2011 (RPI #11) from CUSA (Conference RPI 5).

In order for the Cajuns to earn a national seed with an RPI ranking of say 9->12 (and maybe even 7 or 8), other things will need to fall into their favor.

1) I have oft mentioned Alabama winning the SEC regular season (as the Tide would earn a national seed). I think this would give the Cajuns the most slack. This would be a strong resume bullet for the Cajuns.

2) It is unlikely that the Cajuns will log any more than four games vs. the RPI Top 25. Alabama and LSU must remain in the RPI Top 25 (giving the Cajuns a 3-1 record vs. the RPI Top 25) … else they will get slammed for their non-national seed worthy schedule (this will be an argument as it is). Also, the more Cajun opponents in the RPI Top 50 … the better. Southern Mississippi is important … Western Kentucky is nice … they definitely need someone other than Alabama and LSU. Maybe Arkansas State can get there … even with three losses to the Cajuns.

3) Maintain that lofty road record (currently 14-0). The selection committee will take notice of this … especially when comparing the road records of the other contenders. This is related to Road RPI, which will be important. Though this is not as strong, being undefeated will still afford the Cajuns a solid Road RPI. Non-Conference RPI (currently not as strong as their Overall RPI … the RPI value as well as the ranking … but solid with a #14 ranking) will also be a factor.

4) The right teams need to be ahead of the Cajuns in the RPI. I cannot emphasize this enough. By right teams, I am referring to the teams from the elite conferences that have lofty RPIs because of where they play, but are not the first or second place teams in their respective conferences. This is why watching the conference regular season finish and conference tournaments is important. Some examples … NC State in 2013 (RPI #7, ACC 4th), Clemson in 2011 (RPI #7, ACC 6th), Miami in 2010 (RPI #8, ACC 3rd) … even Georgia Tech in 2011, whom tied for 1st in the ACC (#2 Conference RPI) and had an overall RPI ranking of 8 (three ACC schools were already national seeds and the lower conference finishers were picked ahead of GT due to RPI ranking). None of the above were awarded national seeds.

5) Finishing strong … winning the Conference Tournament. While winning the conference tournament is not an absolute requirement, the Cajuns may need to do so to have their RPI where it needs to be. Remember that although the tournament is in Mobile, these games will not be considered road games for RPI purposes. They will be considered neutral games … even for the home team. I also remember the Cajuns landing undefeated in the Sun Belt Tournament Championship game of 2007 vs. New Orleans in Mobile. I think that loss was the difference between a #2 seed in College Station and hosting a regional (quite possibly Texas A&M being the #2 seed in Lafayette … or Wichita State not being granted their gift). Also, Conference regular season titles as well as Conference tournament championships are important to the selection committee.

6) And as my lead post illustrates … help from the teams in the RPI around the Cajuns (especially the RPI Top 8). Help as in more losses … offsetting the non-optimal remaining schedule for the Cajuns.

There are so many variables here (many outside the control of the Cajuns) … which is why it is foolish to unequivocally say that the Cajuns will be a national seed if they only lose X games … or will not be a national seed if they lose X games. You cannot even project an RPI finish (due to many other factors outside the control of the Cajuns), let alone whether or not they will receive a national seed. But the above points are significant factors that provide the Cajuns a better chance to be there at the end.

Brian

[J-Town Cajun]

Shocked? Nothing much shocks me anymore. Surprised? Yes. The trend in the last four years says otherwise … a team from a non-elite conference (Conference RPI Top 4) with an RPI outside of the Top 8 earning a national seed. Consider the following teams that were not awarded national seeds …

2013
Indiana (RPI #12), 1st place Big Ten (Conference RPI rank of 6)
2012
Purdue (RPI #8), 1st place Big Ten (Conference RPI rank of 10)
Arizona (RPI #14), Pac-12 tied for 1st (Conference RPI rank of 3) ** National Champions **
2011
Georgia Tech (RPI #8), ACC tied for 1st (Conference RPI rank of 2)
Arizona State (RPI #9), Pac-10 2nd place (Conference RPI rank of 4)
Texas A&M (RPI #10), Big XII tied for 1st (Conference RPI rank of 3)
Cal State-Fullerton (RPI #13), 1st place Big West (Conference RPI rank of 10)
2010
Cal State-Fullerton (RPI #11), 1st place Big West (Conference RPI rank of 8)


The teams that have been awarded national seeds outside of the Top 8 RPI in the last four years were not far outside of the Top 8 (9, 11, 11, 12, 10) and all came from the ACC (1), SEC (1), Pac-12 (1), Big XII (1) … with the lone exception being Rice in 2011 (RPI #11) from CUSA (Conference RPI 5).

In order for the Cajuns to earn a national seed with an RPI ranking of say 9->12 (and maybe even 7 or 8), other things will need to fall into their favor.

1) I have oft mentioned Alabama winning the SEC regular season (as the Tide would earn a national seed). I think this would give the Cajuns the most slack. This would be a strong resume bullet for the Cajuns.

2) It is unlikely that the Cajuns will log any more than four games vs. the RPI Top 25. Alabama and LSU must remain in the RPI Top 25 (giving the Cajuns a 3-1 record vs. the RPI Top 25) … else they will get slammed for their non-national seed worthy schedule (this will be an argument as it is). Also, the more Cajun opponents in the RPI Top 50 … the better. Southern Mississippi is important … Western Kentucky is nice … they definitely need someone other than Alabama and LSU. Maybe Arkansas State can get there … even with three losses to the Cajuns.

3) Maintain that lofty road record (currently 14-0). The selection committee will take notice of this … especially when comparing the road records of the other contenders. This is related to Road RPI, which will be important. Though this is not as strong, being undefeated will still afford the Cajuns a solid Road RPI. Non-Conference RPI (currently not as strong as their Overall RPI … the RPI value as well as the ranking … but solid with a #14 ranking) will also be a factor.

4) The right teams need to be ahead of the Cajuns in the RPI. I cannot emphasize this enough. By right teams, I am referring to the teams from the elite conferences that have lofty RPIs because of where they play, but are not the first or second place teams in their respective conferences. This is why watching the conference regular season finish and conference tournaments is important. Some examples … NC State in 2013 (RPI #7, ACC 4th), Clemson in 2011 (RPI #7, ACC 6th), Miami in 2010 (RPI #8, ACC 3rd) … even Georgia Tech in 2011, whom tied for 1st in the ACC (#2 Conference RPI) and had an overall RPI ranking of 8 (three ACC schools were already national seeds and the lower conference finishers were picked ahead of GT due to RPI ranking). None of the above were awarded national seeds.

5) Finishing strong … winning the Conference Tournament. While winning the conference tournament is not an absolute requirement, the Cajuns may need to do so to have their RPI where it needs to be. Remember that although the tournament is in Mobile, these games will not be considered road games for RPI purposes. They will be considered neutral games … even for the home team. I also remember the Cajuns landing undefeated in the Sun Belt Tournament Championship game of 2007 vs. New Orleans in Mobile. I think that loss was the difference between a #2 seed in College Station and hosting a regional (quite possibly Texas A&M being the #2 seed in Lafayette … or Wichita State not being granted their gift). Also, Conference regular season titles as well as Conference tournament championships are important to the selection committee.

6) And as my lead post illustrates … help from the teams in the RPI around the Cajuns (especially the RPI Top 8). Help as in more losses … offsetting the non-optimal remaining schedule for the Cajuns.

There are so many variables here (many outside the control of the Cajuns) … which is why it is foolish to unequivocally say that the Cajuns will be a national seed if they only lose X games … or will not be a national seed if they lose X games. You cannot even project an RPI finish (due to many other factors outside the control of the Cajuns), let alone whether or not they will receive a national seed. But the above points are significant factors that provide the Cajuns a better chance to be there at the end.

Brian

All very good and valid points. And you are right in saying no one can predict the outcomes on so many wins or loses because so much depends on what happens to the other teams. But I still believe even with 4 loses and with the right scenarios the Cajuns could be a national seed. It's all fun to come here and make an educated guess, not being foolish at all. Nor do I think your predictions are foolish. Their predictions. It was just a few weeks ago you stated the Cajuns would almost have to win out to remain in the RPI top 16. Well due to the numbers you pointed out last night with the top team's RPI being down this year it now seems much more realistic. Anyway it will be fun to watch this thing shake out. Thanks for your contributions to this site. Many of us look forward to your post.

[GoneGolfin]

All very good and valid points. And you are right in saying no one can predict the outcomes on so many wins or loses because so much depends on what happens to the other teams. But I still believe even with 4 loses and with the right scenarios the Cajuns could be a national seed. It's all fun to come here and make an educated guess, not being foolish at all.

I was not referencing your making predictions and educated guesses. I specifically used the word "unequivocally". Everybody makes their predictions/guesses and it is all good. I was referring to your guarantee statements such as … "If this team only loses 5 more games and wins the conference tournament we will finish the season with 50 wins before selection day. No way we don't get a national seed.". If you remove that last statement, it's all good.

Nor do I think your predictions are foolish. Their predictions. It was just a few weeks ago you stated the Cajuns would almost have to win out to remain in the RPI top 16.

No. First, that was not a hard prediction … it was an indication of where the Cajuns sit at present (and down the stretch) with respect to the RPI. I have been qualifying my statements in terms of either the current RPI values or what the RPI values have been in the past at selection time … as well as how our opponents perform, opponents' opponents perform … and the teams around us in the RPI (all other things being equal). I try to do this in almost every post concerning this type of material … and if you read my posts, you know what I am talking about. And if I missed a qualifier, I was being lazy or forgot to add it. The qualifiers for this stuff are tiresome, but I try to include them. You simply cannot make blanket statements when it comes to predicting an RPI finish given the number of wins/losses in remaining games. We discuss this at length when Boyd posts his RPI needs report.

Well due to the numbers you pointed out last night with the top team's RPI being down this year it now seems much more realistic. Anyway it will be fun to watch this thing shake out. Thanks for your contributions to this site. Many of us look forward to your post.

If the trends hold, certainly the numbers I illustrated give the Cajuns more breathing room. That was the point of my post. But even with those numbers, five more losses would be extremely difficult to nail down a Top 8 RPI … as well as a national seed. In fact, all other things being equal, their RPI would fall to #13 (an RPI value of .5945). It could be several spots worse quite easily if the teams with the more favorable schedules down the stretch slightly increase their RPI, which is more likely than not (depends on the teams around the Cajuns). Many things would need to go in favor of the Cajuns for the Cajuns to finish Top 8 RPI and/or obtain a national seed (with 5 more losses or even 4 more losses). It is more unlikely than likely. But I would not say "No way we get a national seed … just like I would not say "No way we don't get a national seed".

Brian

[Dad04]

A mid-major getting a national seed is the exception to the rule. Don't shoot the messenger. The Cajuns need to be good AND lucky for a national seed, based on the supported data Brian has presented.