2014 BB: Louisiana vs McNeese

[GoneGolfin]

GoneGolfin,

I don't know how much we're paying you for all this analysis but it's not enough.

Chuckle ... paid?

Brian

[Bandwagon King]

Losing to them did matter. Mostly from the standpoint that our winning percentage (and thus WP) is very high and it was a home game. IOW, a win only marginally moves our WP higher (even moreso since a home win is 0.7 wins) … but a loss does much damage … especially a loss at home (counts as 1.3 losses). The converse case is true for a team with a low WP. Thus …

WP (without game vs. UNO) -> .8853
WP (with win vs. UNO) -> .8876 (only marginally higher)
WP (with loss vs. UNO) -> .8527

But there is no doubt that beating them would still have resulted in a non-trivial RPI hit. A win vs. UNO would have left UL with an RPI of .6114 (a loss vs. a win cost the Cajuns .0087 in RPI, per the above). A nice hit from where they would have been without playing them at all. But from an RPI rankings perspective (at this time), they would be at #5 with a win (despite the lower RPI) vs. #3 (pushing on Houston at #2) having not played them at all. This is because of what happened with the teams in the RPI Top 10 this week and how tightly they were clustered.


I have been saying this for years.


You are thinking too small. It is not just college baseball.


No. Their winning percentage (which is not the same as WP) … sans the games vs. UL … becomes a component of our OWP. Their opponents (their OWP) in aggregate become a component of our OOWP. OWP has twice the weight of OOWP.


No. Them beating us only improves their WP. Them playing us immensely helps their OWP (which is the dominant weight). The only help (and it is marginal) that we get from playing them is adding our own winning percentage (sans the game(s) vs. UNO) to their OWP, which becomes a small component of our OOWP.

And our RPI is never damaged by beating them. Because neither our OWP nor our OOWP is affected by the game result(s) vs. UNO. That is … our OWP contribution to UNO does not include our games vs. UNO. As such, their OOWP contribution to UL also does not include our games vs. UNO.

Brian

To quote Vinny Barbarino,"I'm so confused". It was much easier for me to decipher hydrologic flow charts & figure river currents in MCF/sec. than the college RPI. I appreciate your breaking it all down, but the more I try to get it, the more I see big problems with it. Just looking down the list of teams their records, & seeing the conferences they play in, it appears that the major conferences have figured out a way to game the system all over again. Two glaring examples to me are Ole Miss & Stanford. Ole miss is in the top 8 RPI with a fair but not great record & may actually get a national seed at this rate simply by being in the SEC. Same thing with Stanford. I think they have a losing record & a 36 RPI. Yet no one in the Pac-12 is even in the RPI top ten.

[Bandwagon King]

Considering we lost 2 weekend starters for any amount of time and are still 31-4 is incredible.

Did we lose them, or are they being held out so as not to wear their arms out for the final stretch of the season. If the later is the case, then this is going to be the MOST dangerous ball club going into tournament time.

[campo118]

A little of both. Aut has slight tenderitis in his arm, but has been kept out more so to keep him rested and fresh down the stretch because he has the luxury to do that IMO. In the past when we didn't have as much depth and as much room for error Robe probably would have pitched someone a little dinged up, but I have no inside knowledge of this and am only making assumptions. I'm sure Dad04 has a little more knowledge in this area.

[Bandwagon King]

A little of both. Aut has slight tenderitis in his arm, but has been kept out more so to keep him rested and fresh down the stretch because he has the luxury to do that IMO. In the past when we didn't have as much depth and as much room for error Robe probably would have pitched someone a little dinged up, but I have no inside knowledge of this and am only making assumptions. I'm sure Dad04 has a little more knowledge in this area.

And this is what listening to the coaches shows & such they have been able to do with the big bats. Guys keeping their pitch counts low, & others getting to rest longer periods of time will pay big dividends in May & June. We just left a lot of guys on in clutch situations Tuesday Vs. Wednesday. And it sounded like McNeese played great in the field or else Cajuns would have hung twenty on them. In a case of it's baseball UNO just came in & played their best baseball, weather conditions, umping, untimely outs all worked together for an unexpected loss.

On a similar note relating back to Don Allen's take on too many strike outs. It would have been easy to make hay with that comment both Tuesday & Wednesday. As strikeouts aided in the loss Tuesday, they were actually used to move runners around the bases & get runs in on Wednesday. It's just a matter of how you are taking advantage of each pitch that differentiates whether strikeouts are a bad or good thing for a team like this.

[CajunEXPRESS]

Strikeout killed us in the UNO game. Both UNO pitchers history were good for strike out ratios, but when you got ducks on the pond you got to get the ball into play.

[Dad04]

UNO only scored 92 runs in their first 27 games, 3.4 runs per game, before Tuesday night. I'll go out on a limb and opine we scored enough (7) to beat UNO. Our lack of pitching was the reason we lost.

I am HOPEFUL Austin will return soon, but I don't have anymore info than anyone. Austin reportedly has shoulder tendinitis. I will go out on another limb and opine that if he was ready to pitch he would be pitching, no doubt. The college baseball season is only 3.5 months. Healthy players play. Hurt players sit. Holding players out for precautionary measures is coach speak for he can't pitch yet, without possibly getting hurt again before the end of the season. He will probably need to build up his arm strength and get re-stretched out to 80-100 pitches again over a couple of weeks when he does return, hopefully next week.

Milhorn is coming back from an oblique stain and missed four starts, I think. His three innings pitched in Lake Chuck are very encouraging. Based on my experience, pitchers only miss starts because they can't pitch 3, 4, 5 innings effectively.

[CrazyCajun]

Did we lose them, or are they being held out so as not to wear their arms out for the final stretch of the season. If the later is the case, then this is going to be the MOST dangerous ball club going into tournament time.

They weren't resting, milhorn pullled an oblique, Austin's elbow was sore...you give guys a night off to rest, not a couple weeks. I understand they were being safe and very cautious bc of our depth. Robe saying they wanted to give them rest, means they didn't want the injury to get worse.

[CajunT]

And this is what listening to the coaches shows & such they have been able to do with the big bats. Guys keeping their pitch counts low, & others getting to rest longer periods of time will pay big dividends in May & June. We just left a lot of guys on in clutch situations Tuesday Vs. Wednesday. And it sounded like McNeese played great in the field or else Cajuns would have hung twenty on them. In a case of it's baseball UNO just came in & played their best baseball, weather conditions, umping, untimely outs all worked together for an unexpected loss.

On a similar note relating back to Don Allen's take on too many strike outs. It would have been easy to make hay with that comment both Tuesday & Wednesday. As strikeouts aided in the loss Tuesday, they were actually used to move runners around the bases & get runs in on Wednesday. It's just a matter of how you are taking advantage of each pitch that differentiates whether strikeouts are a bad or good thing for a team like this.

When you look at the lineup and break down each player, the largest percentage of SO to walks offenders are Harrison and Strentz. They are by far the two most frequent contributors to the number of SO in the lineup. Looking even closer, Harrison still has an OB% .392 and is hitting .365. Strentz on the other hand has an OB% of .302 and a batting average of .248, neither is good. Combined, they have accounted for 62 SO in the batting order. I can live with Harrison's SO numbers because he is so productive and delivers power in the lineup. Strentz needs improvement. But looking at the SO numbers, the blanket statement that UL strikes out a lot as a team is not correct.

[Dad04]

We have 221 strike outs. The team average for strikeouts in the Sunbelt is 228 strikeouts. Compared to the conference we strike out about the average amount, or a little less. Saying we strike out a lot without comparing to something is simply not accurate or clear in meaning.

With that said, power hitters generally strike out a lot. Reggie Jackson averaged about one K per game...for 20 years.