Get ready to hold your RPI ankles ...

[GoneGolfin]

You would guess correctly. But still solid help for the Cajuns' OWP.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

This is actually quite big for two reasons.

#1 The weighting is four games
#2 Because EIU has a very low winning percentage, a single win bumps their WP (and the Cajuns' OWP) more than usual. In this case, the OWP contribution moves from .2632 to .3000.

EIU's win tonight is doing most of the heavy lifting in offsetting the Southern RPI hit tonight.

Brian

RPI increase tonight (due to opponents other than Southern) is now up to .0042. This is close to becoming a wash.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

RPI increase tonight (due to opponents other than Southern) is now up to .0042. This is close to becoming a wash.

Brian

... and there is the drop. Cajuns' RPI now at .6930 ... holding at #10 ... were at #9 before end of the Southern game.

Note that Brown is at #8 with their lofty 4-6 record. They will be falling out of the Top 10 soon.

Brian

[DocCajun]

... and there is the drop. Cajuns' RPI now at .6930 ... holding at #10 ... were at #9 before end of the Southern game.

Note that Brown is at #8 with their lofty 4-6 record. They will be falling out of the Top 10 soon.

Brian

Interesting stuff. Thanks for all the info Brian

[CajunFun]

... and there is the drop. Cajuns' RPI now at .6930 ... holding at #10 ... were at #9 before end of the Southern game.

Note that Brown is at #8 with their lofty 4-6 record. They will be falling out of the Top 10 soon.

Brian

Brian,

Is there any good justification for the RPI other than to keep the big boys in control? It's not a strong predictor of performance, and it automatically gives the big baseball conferences a leg up for post season appearances, seedings, and hosting.

[Bandwagon King]

... and there is the drop. Cajuns' RPI now at .6930 ... holding at #10 ... were at #9 before end of the Southern game.

Note that Brown is at #8 with their lofty 4-6 record. They will be falling out of the Top 10 soon.

Brian

\

But doesn't everyone have a few "Southerns" on their schedule. Does anyone recall what UL's ranking & RPI was the last time they were 29-2? I have to think that it was pretty low considering the gaudy record they had. They still hosted a regional that season even after the drop off. I need some help here. Why do so many seemed so concerned that UL-L will not host a regional? TIA.

[CrazyCajun]

\

But doesn't everyone have a few "Southerns" on their schedule. Does anyone recall what UL's ranking & RPI was the last time they were 29-2? I have to think that it was pretty low considering the gaudy record they had. They still hosted a regional that season even after the drop off. I need some help here. Why do so many seemed so concerned that UL-L will not host a regional? TIA.

We hosted as a 2 seed that year, ECU was the 1 seed. We were extremely lucky to host that year.

[cajunhawk]

I think the RPI would benefit from a moratorium just like the BCS poll had. Nothing until halfway through the season.

[wcd35]

I think the RPI would benefit from a moratorium just like the BCS poll had. Nothing until halfway through the season.

Actually they pretty much do that. NCAA releases the official ranking midway. It's just that since its a formula, sites can figure it out

[cajunhawk]

Actually they pretty much do that. NCAA releases the official ranking midway. It's just that since its a formula, sites can figure it out

Color me uninformed. Thanks for that info.

[GoneGolfin]

Brian,

Is there any good justification for the RPI other than to keep the big boys in control? It's not a strong predictor of performance, and it automatically gives the big baseball conferences a leg up for post season appearances, seedings, and hosting.

The NCAA wants some sort of algorithmic process that will "automate" the selection process to some degree. It serves as a crutch and as an "authoritative source" to justify the selections they make. I can guarantee you that the folks on the selection committees only understand the RPI at a surface level, if that. There is a lot of blind trust. I do not think the elite conference bias is purposeful by these folks ... it is something that they do not understand and simply accept. After all, it is math and you know how many folks react to math.

The result of Coach Lotief taking my RPI recommendations to the Softball Committee is an example. While they have not adopted all of them just yet (my first suggestion was to toss it completely) ... they were able to see that awarding RPI bonuses (RPI Top XX wins) for conference games made no sense and provided an unfair advantage to the schools from the elite conferences. They eliminated those bonuses the next year (2013).

But yes ... there is no doubt that the RPI (even in its base form) provides an advantage to the elite conferences ... because of the weighting of SOS ... and more notably OWP. This is why teams playing .500 ball can be in the RPI Top 25.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

\

But doesn't everyone have a few "Southerns" on their schedule.

Most schools have at least one opponent that damages their RPI in some way. But the damage Southern is providing this year is on the extreme end (at this point in time ... but that can and may be softened depending on how Southern performs in conference). And regardless, you want to minimize (if not completely eliminate) these games. This is one of the core tenets of my "smart scheduling" process and was a key part of the RPI turnaround (from 2011 to 2012) of the UL softball team. The 2012 schedule did not see the predictable RPI damaging schools that were on the 2011 schedule. It also included teams that were easy wins ... but also helped the RPI.

Does anyone recall what UL's ranking & RPI was the last time they were 29-2? I have to think that it was pretty low considering the gaudy record they had.

The Cajuns had an RPI rank of #5 when they were 28-2 in 2000. When they were 32-10, they were at #20. At selection time, they had an RPI rank of #28.

They still hosted a regional that season even after the drop off. I need some help here. Why do so many seemed so concerned that UL-L will not host a regional? TIA.

You cannot compare 2000 to the present. At that time, the NCAA Selection committee was more lax about awarding host regionals to teams with RPIs outside the Top 16 ... even well outside. At the time, the NCAA was also trying to have "new blood" hosting ... to expand the sport. The more lax attitude in using the RPI to determine #1 seeds and hosts has ceased ... and the committee is more reliant on the RPI than ever. Read this post and you will understand.

Note that I am not concerned about the Cajuns remaining in the Top 16 RPI (and the prospects to host) ... as long as they continue to play solid ball. I am concerned about the ability to finish in the Top 8 RPI with this schedule (strong national seed consideration) ... especially as the elite conference teams get their artificial RPI bump as the season wears on. They need some help from their opponents. You can find a related discussion here.

Brian