Get ready to hold your RPI ankles ...

[CrazyCajun]

\

But doesn't everyone have a few "Southerns" on their schedule. Does anyone recall what UL's ranking & RPI was the last time they were 29-2? I have to think that it was pretty low considering the gaudy record they had. They still hosted a regional that season even after the drop off. I need some help here. Why do so many seemed so concerned that UL-L will not host a regional? TIA.

We hosted as a 2 seed that year, ECU was the 1 seed. We were extremely lucky to host that year.

[cajunhawk]

I think the RPI would benefit from a moratorium just like the BCS poll had. Nothing until halfway through the season.

[wcd35]

I think the RPI would benefit from a moratorium just like the BCS poll had. Nothing until halfway through the season.

Actually they pretty much do that. NCAA releases the official ranking midway. It's just that since its a formula, sites can figure it out

[cajunhawk]

Actually they pretty much do that. NCAA releases the official ranking midway. It's just that since its a formula, sites can figure it out

Color me uninformed. Thanks for that info.

[GoneGolfin]

Brian,

Is there any good justification for the RPI other than to keep the big boys in control? It's not a strong predictor of performance, and it automatically gives the big baseball conferences a leg up for post season appearances, seedings, and hosting.

The NCAA wants some sort of algorithmic process that will "automate" the selection process to some degree. It serves as a crutch and as an "authoritative source" to justify the selections they make. I can guarantee you that the folks on the selection committees only understand the RPI at a surface level, if that. There is a lot of blind trust. I do not think the elite conference bias is purposeful by these folks ... it is something that they do not understand and simply accept. After all, it is math and you know how many folks react to math.

The result of Coach Lotief taking my RPI recommendations to the Softball Committee is an example. While they have not adopted all of them just yet (my first suggestion was to toss it completely) ... they were able to see that awarding RPI bonuses (RPI Top XX wins) for conference games made no sense and provided an unfair advantage to the schools from the elite conferences. They eliminated those bonuses the next year (2013).

But yes ... there is no doubt that the RPI (even in its base form) provides an advantage to the elite conferences ... because of the weighting of SOS ... and more notably OWP. This is why teams playing .500 ball can be in the RPI Top 25.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

\

But doesn't everyone have a few "Southerns" on their schedule.

Most schools have at least one opponent that damages their RPI in some way. But the damage Southern is providing this year is on the extreme end (at this point in time ... but that can and may be softened depending on how Southern performs in conference). And regardless, you want to minimize (if not completely eliminate) these games. This is one of the core tenets of my "smart scheduling" process and was a key part of the RPI turnaround (from 2011 to 2012) of the UL softball team. The 2012 schedule did not see the predictable RPI damaging schools that were on the 2011 schedule. It also included teams that were easy wins ... but also helped the RPI.

Does anyone recall what UL's ranking & RPI was the last time they were 29-2? I have to think that it was pretty low considering the gaudy record they had.

The Cajuns had an RPI rank of #5 when they were 28-2 in 2000. When they were 32-10, they were at #20. At selection time, they had an RPI rank of #28.

They still hosted a regional that season even after the drop off. I need some help here. Why do so many seemed so concerned that UL-L will not host a regional? TIA.

You cannot compare 2000 to the present. At that time, the NCAA Selection committee was more lax about awarding host regionals to teams with RPIs outside the Top 16 ... even well outside. At the time, the NCAA was also trying to have "new blood" hosting ... to expand the sport. The more lax attitude in using the RPI to determine #1 seeds and hosts has ceased ... and the committee is more reliant on the RPI than ever. Read this post and you will understand.

Note that I am not concerned about the Cajuns remaining in the Top 16 RPI (and the prospects to host) ... as long as they continue to play solid ball. I am concerned about the ability to finish in the Top 8 RPI with this schedule (strong national seed consideration) ... especially as the elite conference teams get their artificial RPI bump as the season wears on. They need some help from their opponents. You can find a related discussion here.

Brian

[Bandwagon King]

The Cajuns had an RPI rank of #5 when they were 28-2 in 2000. When they were 32-10, they were at #20. At selection time, they had an RPI rank of #28.





Brian[/QUOTE]

I checked LSU's schedule & up to this point their schedule & RPI is pretty close to the Cajuns even though their is win/loss discrepancy forming. I guess I remember this happening to the softball team, but are you saying these guys could keep right on winning & end up on the outside looking in at hosting a super regional?

[GoneGolfin]

I checked LSU's schedule & up to this point their schedule & RPI is pretty close to the Cajuns even though their is win/loss discrepancy forming.

... and as LSU moves into their SEC schedule and begins adding solid OWP contributions, their RPI will improve, provided they do not tank. There are some series where LSU could get swept ... and their RPI would improve from where they are now. Note when I say RPI, I mean the calculated value. The RPI rank is dependent on how teams around them in the rankings fare.

I guess I remember this happening to the softball team, but are you saying these guys could keep right on winning & end up on the outside looking in at hosting a super regional?

Yes, I documented the RPI slide thoroughly during the 2012 season. Cajun softball was ...

#6 on 4/9/12 with a 33-1 record (.6830 RPI)
#9 on 4/16/12 with a 38-2 record (.6721 RPI)
#12 on 4/24/12 with a 41-2 record (.6601 RPI)
#12 on 4/29/12 with a 44-2 record (.6639 RPI)
#13 on 5/6/12 with a 46-3 record (.6592 RPI)
#12 on 5/13/12 with a 49-4 record (.6598 RPI)

As for baseball, it will take a really gaudy record to squeeze into the Top 8 RPI ... and help from Cajun opponents. The elite conference teams push their way into the Top 16 and Top 8 towards the end of the season due to the healthy OWP contributions they receive from their conference foes.

Brian

[Bandwagon King]

... and as LSU moves into their SEC schedule and begins adding solid OWP contributions, their RPI will improve, provided they do not tank. There are some series where LSU could get swept ... and their RPI would improve from where they are now. Note when I say RPI, I mean the calculated value. The RPI rank is dependent on how teams around them in the rankings fare.


Yes, I documented the RPI slide thoroughly during the 2012 season. Cajun softball was ...

#6 on 4/9/12 with a 33-1 record (.6830 RPI)
#9 on 4/16/12 with a 38-2 record (.6721 RPI)
#12 on 4/24/12 with a 41-2 record (.6601 RPI)
#12 on 4/29/12 with a 44-2 record (.6639 RPI)
#13 on 5/6/12 with a 46-3 record (.6592 RPI)
#12 on 5/13/12 with a 49-4 record (.6598 RPI)

As for baseball, it will take a really gaudy record to squeeze into the Top 8 RPI ... and help from Cajun opponents. The elite conference teams push their way into the Top 16 and Top 8 towards the end of the season due to the healthy OWP contributions they receive from their conference foes.

Brian

So much of baseball, softaball, & other traditionally non revenue producing sports depend as much on travel savings as they do who's who. Is there any way to adjust RPI formula to account more for record than necessarily on SOS for OOC opponents? I mean after all it is college athletics & other schools do have the same opportunities to hand out as many scholarships.

[GoneGolfin]

So much of baseball, softaball, & other traditionally non revenue producing sports depend as much on travel savings as they do who's who. Is there any way to adjust RPI formula to account more for record than necessarily on SOS for OOC opponents? I mean after all it is college athletics & other schools do have the same opportunities to hand out as many scholarships.

Certainly the committees for the various NCAA sports could elect to change the weightings in the RPI formula. Currently, nearly 75% (but not 75%) is the strength of your schedule ... and just over 25% (but not 25%) is your winning. More emphasis should be placed on winning. I have recommended as such. No changes in the weights are forthcoming at the moment.

Brian