Cajuns Win In 11 Innings At Nicholls State, 7-1

[CajunAlum10]

He did an AMA (ask me anything) on Reddit's College Baseball Forum. I asked who he thought would be the National Seeds at the end of the year. He responded with"

"Still early, but as of right now, I have Louisiana-Lafayette, not LSU as one of my top eight national seeds. The good thing for the Ragin' Cajuns is I think their schedule sets up to where they're going to have quite the gaudy overall record at the end of the year. "

Here is the full AMA if you are interested.

http://www.reddit.com/r/collegebaseb...ll_rogers_ama/

Sweet, thanks!

[DieHard1280]

While I can't argue with your logic Bryan, surely we would get a top 8 national seed with say 5 or less losses on the season and a top 5 ranking in every poll regardless of RPI numbers right? Or is RPI the one and only contributing factor?

Or how about 58-2?

[campo118]

works for me too…. I like to think realistically… I say we lose at least 1 more game…. but no more than 3

[BananaHammock]

Agreed. Kendall Rogers agrees with you too. He mentioned a couple of days ago that he thinks we will be national seed and not LSU. He likes our schedule going forward. This is very important as we would host the Super Regional.

We will probably still get screwed and end up in an LSU regional. Of course I hope this doesn't happen but you can't write it off yet. Better get our Faux Bricks up in case we do host one. Wouldn't that be embarrassing, missing faux bricks on our otherwise nice scoreboard.

[Cajun90]

While I can't argue with your logic Bryan, surely we would get a top 8 national seed with say 5 or less losses on the season and a top 5 ranking in every poll regardless of RPI numbers right? Or is RPI the one and only contributing factor?

The committee does not consider the polls so toss that out the window. Over the past few years the RPI has matched almost perfectly with the national seeds so take that for what it is. Without looking it up you might have had a nine take a national from an eight RPI but nothing much beyond that. As Brian noted we aren't going to get a lot of help with games against top 25 either. I'm not at all confident in a national seed. Heck I'm hoping to end with an RPI in the top 16. We have a much better chance of ending up as a regional host if we finish as you stated and were say in the RPI 17-19 range than being an RPI nine or ten and getting a national seed.

[campo118]

Does that not show a flaw in the RPI system though? If a team went 55-5 to 58-2 and didn't get a national seed, regardless of SOS, the process needs to be tweaked...

[Dad04]

Agreed. Kendall Rogers agrees with you too. He mentioned a couple of days ago that he thinks we will be national seed and not LSU. He likes our schedule going forward. This is very important as we would host the Super Regional.

Obviously, teams that host have the advantage. Hopefully, we can can keep checking boxes and stay on the inside track keeping the host bid alive.

[GoneGolfin]

While I can't argue with your logic Bryan, surely we would get a top 8 national seed with say 5 or less losses on the season and a top 5 ranking in every poll regardless of RPI numbers right? Or is RPI the one and only contributing factor?

#1 Polls are not part of the selection process.

#2 No, RPI is not the only contributing factor ... but it is the dominant one and the driving force behind the selections. The selection committee loves to use it as cover ... even though they do not understand it. Probably the next most important factor (along with conference titles from an elite conference) is W/L record vs. your peer group ... in this case, your peers would be the teams you are competing against for a national seed. This is why W/L record vs. the RPI Top 25 is important. With few games in this category, the Cajuns will get dinged for SOS. Conference championships (especially in the elite conferences) are very important ... and the conference tournaments have some weighting as well (including overall conference record). I am not going to provide an exhaustive list of the criteria now, but you get the idea.

#2b When there are exceptions to RPI being highly correlated to the awarded national seeds and #1 seeds, it is usually a West coast team due to the known RPI bias (disadvantage) against the western schools (this has happened with Oregon State in the past) ... or a team from an elite conference that finished high in the standings (Ex. 2nd in the SEC). Also, it is rare that three national seeds are awarded from the same conference. Four national seeds from the same conference is unheard of.

#3 I will be pleasantly shocked if the Cajuns are 55-5 (including Sun Belt Tournament) at selection time. I think that is too much to ask. Single digit losses will be quite the accomplishment. There are losses lurking in every conference schedule and the midweek games (especially Tuesday/Wednesday affairs) during conference play will be a test. The Cajuns have a big target on them each and every time they play. In fact, you might even see some teams attempt to reverse pitch the Cajuns (conference play) in an attempt to grab one game of a series.

#4 Let's take a look at RPI ranking at selection time vs. National Seeds ...

National Seed, Team, (RPI rank)

2013
#1 North Carolina (1) (ACC 1st place)
#2 Vanderbilt (2) (SEC 1st place)
#3 Oregon State (5) (Pac-12 1st place)
#4 LSU (4) (SEC 2nd place)
#5 Cal State-Fullerton (6) (Big West 1st place)
#6 Virginia (3) (ACC 2nd place)
#7 Florida State (8) (ACC 3rd place)
#8 Oregon (9) (Pac-12 2nd place) (See note above about West Coast schools and awarding a large # of national seeds to a single conference ... meaning no NC State)

I would say that this is a very tight correlation.

The RPI Top 8 team that was not awarded a national seed last year? #7 North Carolina State ... the 4th team from the ACC.

You certainly could have made a case for Indiana last year ... with their 43-14 record, #12 RPI ranking, and Big Ten title. But they were sent to Tallahassee for the Super Regional round.

The only team in the RPI Top 16 not to host last season was #14 Clemson. #17 Kansas State (Big 12 1st place) hosted in their place. While Clemson finished 5th in the ACC, the NCAA was not going to award (6) #1 seeds and host regionals to the ACC. Virginia Tech, though they finished a meager 15-14 in ACC play for 6th place (vs. 18-12 for Clemson), was awarded the 5th #1 seed from the ACC as they had an RPI three spots higher than Clemson (#11 vs. #14).

Now take a look at the above and tell me that RPI does not rule when it comes to the NCAA Selection Committee.

2012

#1 Florida (2) (SEC 3rd place, but 2nd in overall record)
#2 UCLA (1) (Pac-12 1st place)
#3 Florida State (3) (ACC 1st place)
#4 Baylor (4) (Big-12 1st place)
#5 Oregon (6) (Pac-12 3rd place)
#6 North Carolina (5) (ACC 2nd place)
#7 LSU (7) (SEC 1st place)
#8 South Carolina (11) (SEC 2nd place)

The Top 7 national seeds were all seeded within one place of their RPI ranking.

The RPI Top 8 team that was not awarded a national seed in 2012? #8 Purdue (43-12, 1st place Big Ten). Not from an elite conference. South Carolina finished 2nd place in the SEC and took their place.

What happened with Purdue in 2012 and Indiana in 2013 does not bode well for the Cajuns if they do not finish well within the Top 8 RPI.

The only team in the RPI Top 16 not to host last season was #16 Arizona State (T4th in Pac-12). CUSA champion #18 Rice hosted in their place.

ALL OF THE ABOVE SAID ... if the Cajuns were to finish something like 55-5 with an RPI ranking close to the Top 8, I do think they would receive strong consideration. But you can see that it is an uphill battle against the conference elites (also, the Sun Belt will not be #5 this year) and it should be obvious now that the Selection Committee relies very heavily on the RPI to make all of its decisions.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

Does that not show a flaw in the RPI system though? If a team went 55-5 to 58-2 and didn't get a national seed, regardless of SOS, the process needs to be tweaked...

Flaws in the RPI? Say it isn't so.

Brian

[DaddyCajun]

Lets hope and pull hard for the Cajuns to end up with just single digit loses(fewer the better) and at the same time pull for everyone we have and will play as long as its NOT against us!

[CajunEXPRESS]

This is a team that's on the track to a national seed in the regional tournament. While it's still early, if we keep this track, then nothing is out of the realm of possibility.

I totally agree this team is GOOD enough to get a national seed, but you and I both know that we will not be able to lose more than one or two more games to get a national seed, and that is a vital element to get to Omaha. The SBC brethren did not help this week losing all over the place often, and big.

[DocCajun]

Brian, your explanations are EXTREMELY helpful, so thank you!

A simple guy like me just looks at the rankings but this is all really good info. But I have to be honest, this team is VERY good and we are clearly able to win away from the Tigue. So while a national seed would be great, it certainly is not the only road to Omaha