David Rothschild, an economist from Microsoft Research New York City predicted the winners of the Oscars in 2013 using various data available on the web. He was accurate with his prediction in 19 of the 24 Academy Awards categories. For Oscars 2014, he posted his predictions for 24 categories weeks back. The Oscars 2014 event just got over and what about his accuracy of prediction this year? He correctly predicted 21 out of 24 categories which is a great improvement over last year. The three categories which he got wrong were Best Animated Short Film, Best Documentary Feature and Best Live Action Short Film. I guess the lack of enough data is one of the reason behind the above three errors. David commented the following on the results, There are two ways to judge accuracy. First, and most obvious, you want a small error. Correctly predicting 21 out of 24 categories and having non-negligible probability for the three other winners is indicative of a small error. Second, you want the...

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