Based on past scores? I don't think a single starter on either side has ever played against the other. I sure wouldn't go on past history, one way or the other.
I think our game against Houston season before last might be something to compare. We came back from 21 and beat them, at Houston. USM beat them with a similar score, at USM, the following game, then lost to Houston in the CUSA championship. I would also look at our opening game at South Carolina last year, where indeed we lost 28-14... but the score doesn't show that we sustained 2 drives in the second half, to inside the 5 yard line and shot ourselves in the foot. We may get rattled in SEC games, but we won't against CUSA.
Expect a better game, from start to finish. You won't hold UL to a field goal in the second half... but we will see come next Saturday.