My best guess at the NCAA Baseball Tournament Regional Sites ...

[GoneGolfin]

I would be quite surprised if this happens. My calcs show the Cajuns finished with an RPI rank of #21 (.5687). But given that I have the Cajuns a mere .0001 ahead of Georgia Tech and .0004 ahead of Arizona State, I want to see the official RPI from the NCAA. Even at #23, I do not see the Cajuns as a #3 seed. Especially given the respectable 7-6 record vs. the RPI Top 50. For example, Rice is 0-4 ... which I think is the only thing that potentially keeps them from a #2 seed.

I would rate Louisiana as about the 6th to 8th strongest #2 seed.

From another angle ... I do not see the NCAA punishing LSU with both Louisiana and Rice.

Brian

I have the Cajuns finishing with an RPI of .5687 ... good for a #21 rank. Thus we have ...

#21 .5687 Louisiana
#22 .5686 Georgia Tech
#23 .5683 Arizona State

Note the mere .0001 gap between Louisiana and Georgia Tech ... and the .0004 gap between Louisiana and Arizona State.

Boyd has his pRPI out this morning and has (to three digits' precision) ...

#21 .569 Arizona State
#22 .569 Louisiana
#23 .569 Georgia Tech

However, the big difference here is that Boyd throws out ties. Ties usually have a minimal impact on OWP and OOWP calculations, but can move the overall RPI about .0001. In this case, Arizona State themselves had a neutral game tie that was thrown out (vs. Gonzaga). That is, they finished 35-20-1 (Adjusted 34.9-21.1), not 35-20 (Adjusted 34.4-20.6). Thus, Arizona State actually had an aWP of .6232, instead of .6255. That alone is good for an RPI downgrade of .0006 (.0023/4 rounded). Which explains why Boyd has Arizona State jumping both Georgia Tech and Louisiana to #21.

Brian

[CAJUNTODD44]

Baseball America has us going to BR as #2 seed,
LSU, UL, Sam Houston and Jackson St

[JMV JustMyView]

Brian - Any way we get disrespected and go to baton rouge as the #3 seed behind Rice?

#2 seed plays #3 seed first game so it really doesn't matter.

[J-Town Cajun]

What time is the selection show?

[oldwiseone33]

11

[JMV JustMyView]

What time is the selection show?

11am

[GoneGolfin]

#2 seed plays #3 seed first game so it really doesn't matter.

Yes it does matter. It matters because the selection committee attempts to balance the regionals while also taking geography into account.

It also matters in that it is nice to bat last in the opener (#2 seed is the home team).

Brian

[JMV JustMyView]

Yes it does matter. It matters because the selection committee attempts to balance the regionals while also taking geography into account.

It also matters in that it is nice to bat last in the opener (#2 seed is the home team).

Brian

I meant if we get in as a #2 or #3 seed in BR we still would play each other...

[GoneGolfin]

Now there is one possible scenario where I see the Cajuns in Starkville ...

Rice goes to Baton Rouge as the #2 seed (the only site where Rice can go that is within 400 miles). Louisiana goes to Starkville as the #2 seed. South Alabama goes to Tallahassee as the #2 seed. Troy goes to Nashville or Columbia as a #3 seed. All of these would be within the 400 mile preferred radius (all bus trips). Certainly possible.

Nobody is predicting this scenario (has not even been discussed) on the college baseball websites. Everyone has Rice on a plane.

Brian

[CajunRed]

I meant if we get in as a #2 or #3 seed in BR we still would play each other...

But that assumes that the other team there would have been there anyway. That is not necessarily the case.

[RedBug58]

#2 seed plays #3 seed first game so it really doesn't matter.

Another reason why "it does matter" is that as a "2" we might be able to play a weaker "3" so that we could pitch our #2 or #3 pitcher and save Robicheaux for "you know who" in the second game. We have to stay in the winners bracket as we seem to fall off quickly after our top 3 pitchers.

[GoneGolfin]

I meant if we get in as a #2 or #3 seed in BR we still would play each other...

Sure ... but your reply was in response to someone asking if UL might get disrespected by sending the Cajuns to BR as a #3 seed with Rice as the #2 seed. I think that the only way this happens is if UL is actually considered a #3 seed by the NCAA. If the NCAA feels UL is worthy of a #2 seed, they will not send them to BR with Rice as a #2 seed (making UL a #3 seed) ... because it does matter. The Cajuns would be getting a tougher opponent than they deserve in the opening round (again, assuming that the NCAA does not view UL as a #3 seed). That is, the selection committee attempts to balance the regional.

It also matters in that the #2 seed is the home team in the opening #2/#3 matchup.

Brian