NCAA Baseball Tournament Resume ...

[GoneGolfin]

Brian, I am well aware that it's a long shot and maybe impossible. But what are your thoughts on us popping back into the hosting discussion if say we mowed down the Sun Belt Tournament without losing a single game? Does that get us any more respect and a possible Host?

I do not think it is really possible for several reasons ...

#1 I do not think the Cajuns will have the requisite RPI
#2 They were not conference champions (and finished 3rd) ... I believe this to be a near requirement for a non-elite conference in the present day of D1 college baseball.
#3 Their record vs. the RPI Top 25 and Top 50 is subpar relative to hosting peers

I do not think the Cajuns would be #1 seed and host-worthy in any category, much less the number of categories that would be required to seriously be in the discussion for a host regional.

In fact, I think South Alabama has a very slim chance, even if they win the SBC tournament. Not because they would necessarily be lacking the resume (though their record vs. the RPI Top 25 and RPI Top 50 is quite poor) ... but because of the need for sites in other regions. I do not see the NCAA not giving a host site to Indiana. I also think Kansas State is an excellent choice (Big XII champion) and has a better resume than South Alabama. The same goes for UCLA and I think the NCAA would like to have four western regionals. There is a chance that Clemson could fall far enough to lose a host regional (leaving the ACC with 4 instead of 5). But right now, they are in. In my mind, there are only two or three host sites up for grabs ... and they look to be going to Clemson, Kansas State, and UCLA.

I also never bought into Arkansas being a serious contender, despite their conference finish ahead of Mississippi State and series wins over Mississippi State and South Carolina. They refused to play on the road and the NCAA will penalize them for it ... as the RPI did.

We will probably talk about some of this on Scott's show tomorrow or Wednesday.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

We will probably talk about some of this on Scott's show tomorrow or Wednesday.

Confirmed ... it looks as if we will talk in the 4pm hour.

Brian

[CajunDreDog]

Confirmed ... it looks as if we will talk in the 4pm hour.

Brian

1420?

[GoneGolfin]

1420?

Yes, Scott Prather's show.

Brian

[axg8750]

Brian, I enjoyed your interview this week on Scott's show. Thank you for keeping all of us up to date on a very confusing rpi system.

Do you believe that a win tonight over S Alabama would secure a #2 seed for the Cajuns?

[J-Town Cajun]

Brian, I enjoyed your interview this week on Scott's show. Thank you for keeping all of us up to date on a very confusing rpi system.

Do you believe that a win tonight over S Alabama would secure a #2 seed for the Cajuns?

I am not Brian but guess would be yes. I think right now we are a bubble #2-3 seed.

[GoneGolfin]

Brian, I enjoyed your interview this week on Scott's show. Thank you for keeping all of us up to date on a very confusing rpi system.

Do you believe that a win tonight over S Alabama would secure a #2 seed for the Cajuns?

Thanks axg. I felt bad that I had to turn down Scott's offer to appear last week ... I have been swamped at work.

It always depends on how other teams perform in their conference tournaments (especially teams around the Cajuns in the RPI), but I would feel very good about a #2 seed should the Cajuns knock off South Alabama.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

Thanks axg. I felt bad that I had to turn down Scott's offer to appear last week ... I have been swamped at work.

It always depends on how other teams perform in their conference tournaments (especially teams around the Cajuns in the RPI), but I would feel very good about a #2 seed should the Cajuns knock off South Alabama.

Also, to give you an idea of where the Cajuns would be RPI-wise with losses to South Alabama and Florida International (worst case scenario) ...

Current RPI (through games of 5/22) -> .5651 (Rank #24)
aWP -> .6874
OWP -> .5291
OOWP -> .5150

Losses to USA and FIU ...
aWP -> 35.4 - 18.1 = .6620
OWP -> ((.5921 * 56) + .7222 (USA) + .4615 (FIU))/58 = 30.8133/58 = .5313
OOWP -> ((.5150 * 56) + .5575 (USA) + .5459 (FIU))/58 = 29.9434/58 = .5163

The above yields an RPI of .5602. Using the RPIs through 5/22, this would still be good for a ranking of #28. Of course, the Cajuns' RPI will shift some depending on how Cajun opponents and Cajuns' opponents' opponents perform in the next several games ... and additionally their RPI ranking will depend on how teams ranked within the vicinity of the Cajuns perform. But this gives you an idea.

This is why I wanted to play South Alabama at least once in the Sun Belt tournament.

Brian

[J-Town Cajun]

LSU is the obvious place that we likely go. A win against USA and we are likely a lock for a 2 seed. Lose the next 2 my money is that we fall to a 3 but may still end up a #2. We may and could end up at Miss St. as a #2 or 3 also but not likely. I think USA unless they win the SBC tourney may end up at Miss St as a #2 seed if they don't host.
I think Kansas St and USA have the best chance of hosting with a RPI not in the top #16. UCLA and Virgina tech best chance being top #16 RPI and not hosting.

[Boomer]

I know it is not this way--well I don't think it is----but after seeing the UL girls rise over the LSUs and after the crowds that UL brought---just stands to reason that they would want the UL/LSU match up!!! Of course the travel distance is also a non-brainer!!!

[moorecajun]

So let me pose this scenario:

Since we are "probably" headed to BR, and;
Since we are "probably" going as a #2 or #3 seed, and;
Since #2 plays #3 in the opening round;

I expect it really doesn't matter what we do in the SB tourney OTHER than it will play a small part in determining the strength of our opponent. I suspect geographical location will play a bigger part in our seeding now ... meaning we are more likely to play a Rice than a Fresno State.

I still want to win the tourney, but I feel it isn't going to alter our Regional setting much at all.

My .02 for the morning.

GEAUX CAJUNS

[J-Town Cajun]

So let me pose this scenario:

Since we are "probably" headed to BR, and;
Since we are "probably" going as a #2 or #3 seed, and;
Since #2 plays #3 in the opening round;

I expect it really doesn't matter what we do in the SB tourney OTHER than it will play a small part in determining the strength of our opponent. I suspect geographical location will play a bigger part in our seeding now ... meaning we are more likely to play a Rice than a Fresno State.

I still want to win the tourney, but I feel it isn't going to alter our Regional setting much at all.

My .02 for the morning.

GEAUX CAJUNS

If geography plays a big part look for Okla St, Rice, or Sam Houston St to come to Baton Rouge as the #3 seed.