CAJUNS VS ULM

[GoneGolfin]

Dude I said last weekend 4 wins was likely the magic number and we are now there. Read my post I said I think we are in. A "lock" no. Let's say Cajuns go 0-2, someone other than USA, Troy, UL, or FAU wins the tournament and let's say over FAU in the finals.

In the interest of evaluating this, let's be more specific. This scenario would require either of FIU or UALR to beat FAU in the finals. With FIU and UALR being on the side of the bracket with the home team and South Alabama (and playing the home team and South Alabama respectively in the opening round), I find this extremely unlikely.

FAU would likely pass us in RPI. I am not sure the SBC gets 5 teams in? If we go 0-2 and the right teams win and lose our RPI could easily drop outside of #30.

Even if the near impossible scenario above plays out, the NCAA is not going to put an arbitrary ceiling on the number of teams awarded postseason play from the Sun Belt (the #5 RPI conference in the country). The Cajuns will get in (or not) on their own merits. I would only be modestly concerned if their RPI dropped to about #40. I am not concerned about #30->#35.

Another silver lining in your above doomsday concoction is that if FIU or UALR were to win the Sun Belt Tournament over FAU (with the Cajuns going 0-2), there are better odds that this would not happen without the Cajuns having the benefit of losing that second tournament game to South Alabama ... which would have minimal impact to the Cajuns' RPI.

Meanwhile, the Cajuns' record vs. the Top 50 RPI is a very respectable 5-5 and 7-6 vs. the RPI Top 75.

I have been following this long enough to see the Cajuns get left out with an RPI around #30.

When have you seen the Cajuns get left out with an RPI around #30? I think your doubts are getting the best of you. It has never happened.

Brian

[J-Town Cajun]

In the interest of evaluating this, let's be more specific. This scenario would require either of FIU or UALR to beat FAU in the finals. With FIU and UALR being on the side of the bracket with the home team and South Alabama (and playing the home team and South Alabama respectively in the opening round), I find this extremely unlikely.


Even if the near impossible scenario above plays out, the NCAA is not going to put an arbitrary ceiling on the number of teams awarded postseason play from the Sun Belt (the #5 RPI conference in the country). The Cajuns will get in (or not) on their own merits. I would only be modestly concerned if their RPI dropped to about #40. I am not concerned about #30->#35.

Another silver lining in your above doomsday concoction is that if FIU or UALR were to win the Sun Belt Tournament over FAU (with the Cajuns going 0-2), there are better odds that this would not happen without the Cajuns having the benefit of losing that second tournament game to South Alabama ... which would have minimal impact to the Cajuns' RPI.

Meanwhile, the Cajuns' record vs. the Top 50 RPI is a very respectable 5-5 and 7-6 vs. the RPI Top 75.


When have you seen the Cajuns get left out with an RPI around #30? I think your doubts are getting the best of you. It has never happened.

Brian

Thanks again Brian! Trust me I do feel really good about where we stand. I am just playing out the worst case scenario. What is the highest ranked RPI baseball team have you seen left home? Its not baseball but i remember WKU women's basketball just a few years ago left home with s RPI in the #20's.

I don't remember the year but maybe 10 or so years ago I think our RPI was around #33 and we were left home. I would have to do some research.

[raginsaints]

Wasn't LSU in the top 30 when they were left out a few years back? I think around 27. They were awful in the SEC though

[GoneGolfin]

Thanks again Brian! Trust me I do feel really good about where we stand. I am just playing out the worst case scenario. What is the highest ranked RPI baseball team have you seen left home? Its not baseball but i remember WKU women's basketball just a few years ago left home with s RPI in the #20's.

I don't remember the year but maybe 10 or so years ago I think our RPI was around #33 and we were left home. I would have to do some research.

The Cajun team with the highest RPI left out of the NCAA Tournament (assuming they were eligible) was #54 in 2004. The Cajuns were #55 in 2006 when they were left out (this was the only time I questioned the Cajuns not being in the NCAA Tournament).

The Cajuns were #48 in 2003 when they were left out, but they were also 30-30.

Note that the Cajuns were #41 when they were selected to the field of 64 in 2005 ... and won the Sun Belt regular season.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

Wasn't LSU in the top 30 when they were left out a few years back? I think around 27. They were awful in the SEC though

LSU was left out in 2011 with a #25 RPI. That same performance would not have been Top 45 using the 2013 formula.

LSU scheduled only 3 non-conference road games that season (of 26) and played a total of 18 road games in a 56 game season. They were rightfully skewered by the selection committee for such a pathetic schedule and I believe that this was one of the catalysts for changing the RPI formula.

Brian

[J-Town Cajun]

2003 was the year I was thinking about. Thanks for your research. I must of have mixed up the RPI and the win total. I believe that year we finished second in the Belt and lost to USA on the last day of the regular season on a bad call in the 9th inning that would of have won conference.

I remember the LSU team that was left out. Their fans were ____ed!

[GoneGolfin]

2003 was the year I was thinking about. Thanks for your research. I must of have mixed up the RPI and the win total. I believe that year we finished second in the Belt and lost to USA on the last day of the regular season on a bad call in the 9th inning that would of have won conference.

Yes, the Corey Coles foul ball down the left field line that was not a foul ball. Of course, that was a game tying hit ...not a game winner. But the Cajuns would have had runners at first and second with one out and the game tied.

The Cajuns tied for second in the Sun Belt (New Mexico State) but were the #3 seed in the tournament (lost 2/3 at New Mexico State).

The Cajuns had a chance to take care of business in the conference tournament at home ... and they did not ... losing to #6 seed Middle Tennessee twice.

Of course, the Cajuns dug their own hole when you consider they started the season 6-19. One more win and the Cajuns would have been eligible for the at-large field of 64. A finish of 31-29 would have been a real contender for an at-large spot when you consider ...

- They did finish with an RPI rank of #48 at selection time, despite the 30-30 record
- New Mexico State received an at-large bid with an RPI rank of #50, despite going 0-2 and losing to the Cajuns in the conference tournament (splitting the season series with the Cajuns)
- Another win probably would have had the Cajuns a spot or three higher in the RPI rankings
- New Mexico State only played 17 road games that year (of 56 games) ... only four non-conference road games

Brian

[J-Town Cajun]

Yes, the Corey Coles foul ball down the left field line that was not a foul ball. Of course, that was a game tying hit ...not a game winner. But the Cajuns would have had runners at first and second with one out and the game tied.

The Cajuns tied for second in the Sun Belt (New Mexico State) but were the #3 seed in the tournament (lost 2/3 at New Mexico State).

The Cajuns had a chance to take care of business in the conference tournament at home ... and they did not ... losing to #6 seed Middle Tennessee twice.

Of course, the Cajuns dug their own hole when you consider they started the season 6-19. One more win and the Cajuns would have been eligible for the at-large field of 64. A finish of 31-29 would have been a real contender for an at-large spot when you consider ...

- They did finish with an RPI rank of #48 at selection time, despite the 30-30 record
- New Mexico State received an at-large bid with an RPI rank of #50, despite going 0-2 and losing to the Cajuns in the conference tournament (splitting the season series with the Cajuns)
- Another win probably would have had the Cajuns a spot or three higher in the RPI rankings
- New Mexico State only played 17 road games that year (of 56 games) ... only four non-conference road games

Brian

That was the year and the game.

[BirdofParadise]

Just to clarify the tie breaking proceedure in (hopefully) English.

The Sun Belt Policy is to break ties from the top to the bottom. This is very important here. Since the UL/FAU tied had not been broken (yet) the #1 and #2 seeds must determined first.

Therefore, FAU and UL had to be taken into consideration as an aggregate record. And, Troy wins that tiebreaker, 3-3, vs. 2-4 for South Alabama (who got swept in Boca.)

If the policy had been bottom to top, the Cajuns would have been the #3 based on their series win over FAU. However, if that tie had been broken first, USA's record (2-1 vs. UL) would have trumped Troy (1-2) and they would have captured the top seed.

Determining the tiebreaker in a top to bottom scenario meant a lot here

[Turbine]

Just to clarify the tie breaking proceedure in (hopefully) English.

The Sun Belt Policy is to break ties from the top to the bottom. This is very important here. Since the UL/FAU tied had not been broken (yet) the #1 and #2 seeds must determined first.

Therefore, FAU and UL had to be taken into consideration as an aggregate record. And, Troy wins that tiebreaker, 3-3, vs. 2-4 for South Alabama (who got swept in Boca.)

If the policy had been bottom to top, the Cajuns would have been the #3 based on their series win over FAU. However, if that tie had been broken first, USA's record (2-1 vs. UL) would have trumped Troy (1-2) and they would have captured the top seed.

Determining the tiebreaker in a top to bottom scenario meant a lot here

Interesting . . .

Except in 2005 (football) they broke the tie from the bottom up.