Cajuns RPI sitting very nice so far...

[alum81]

It is just nice to be fired up about Cajun baseball again!

[UL_Cajuns]

Currently our RPI is 13! UTSA Has won a lot of games after they got swept by us, like we all knew they would cause they are a solid team. So their RPI has gotten to 37, with them being 13-6. That helps us big time. Also CMU has started to put some wins together and their RPI is now in the 50's.

Of course it's very early so take it for what it's worth. Also a lot of peeps like to follow Boyd's World but my favorite site for tracking RPI and teams on our schedule's RPI is warrennolan.com. It's an awesome site and always up to date. It may not be "spot on" with what the NCAA will end up using but it's a pretty darn good measuring stick to get an idea.

Checkout UL's page here... http://WarrenNolan.com/baseball/2013...iana-Lafayette

I too check this site every morning.
Its never to early to see where we stand.
What will it take to break into the top 25 polls?

[GoneGolfin]

It is fun to be at 13 right now, but not important.

RPI is a function of your wins, your opponents wins, and most important their opponents wins pretty much in reverse order. Again when some of our opponents start beating their weak conference mates our RP will slide irrespective of our current RPI.

You have it backwards. We want our opponents playing weak conference mates and beating them. We do not want them playing strong teams where there is a decent chance they will lose. OWP is by far the most important. OOWP has the least effect on your RPI of the three. It is even more exacerbated when you consider one of our opponents playing a single game against one of their opponents (that is not an opponent of ours). That single game has considerable more effect on our OWP than that game has on our OOWP number (due to the number of games overall in each classification). This forms the basis of my four point RPI scheduling strategy I have discussed here.

The below is part (brief introduction) of what I discussed with Coach Lotief when scheduling for the 2012 season in 2011. Thus, it is in the context of softball, but the same principles apply.

• You want to schedule weak teams you can beat that are likely to have winning records. The more over .500, the better. The weak OWP that these teams will have represent a negligible impact on your RPI as it will only become part of your OOWP. Meanwhile, about 75% of the formula will be heavily in your favor if you win ... and still about 50% if you lose.

• You want to also schedule some strong teams that are likely to have strong winning records. These teams will really help you if you win (as 100% of the formula is in your favor) ... and will not hurt you much, if any, if you lose. These teams are also of benefit as they can strengthen your record against the RPI Top 25 and RPI Top 50 (important NCAA selection committee criteria) ... in baseball this is the RPI Top 25/50/75 tiers.

• You want to avoid teams with poor W-L records. They will kill your OWP. Some are so bad that your RPI will fall even if you win. You especially want to avoid decent teams with poor W-L records because they played a difficult schedule. Their difficult schedule does not benefit you much (25%) and you also might lose ... in which case about 75% of the formula is not in your favor.

• You want to avoid teams that have just above or near .500 records, but are good teams. Teams typically towards the bottom of the BCS conferences are good examples (In the SEC ... Arkansas, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, and South Carolina usually fit this description). They will not help your OWP (probably will not hurt it much either). But there is a chance you lose the game. In the case of Arkansas, they did severe damage to your OWP in 2011.

--
I am not interested in replying to some of the posts in this thread, but wanted to relay the above. What is important now is continuing to build our Adjusted WP and for our opponents to build their Adjusted WP (which is our Adjusted OWP). This provides much more context than an RPI ranking at this point as you can compare these numbers historically.

FWIW, Boyd Nation has us at #15 this morning (and his RPI is considerably more accurate than that of Warren Nolan's ... which has been discussed here at length over the years). But Boyd's is not fully accurate and it can make a difference of a few spots by the end of the year (particularly now that home/road designation is considerably more important).

Under last year's formula, both our Base RPI and Adjusted RPI would be .6231 ... good for #8 and #9 respectively.

Brian

[Just1More]

Brian (in hopes you meant you don't want to reply to the prior posts), do we tactically schedule our OOC slate with your RPI evaluation in mind? Or is our baseball schedule determined completely irrespective of this "advice"? And, since we play who we play at this point, is the SBC in a position with their WPs to have a bad, neutral, or good effect on our RPI... given we do fairly well going forward?

Sorry if these are redundant (or even dumb) questions.

[CajunRed]

Both Boyd's and Warren Nolan match up right now. And Boyd's is using the new formula...which is .6 for a home win and .6 for a road loss...and so forth.

[wcd35]

It's 0.7 for home win, 1.3 for a road win. Reverse for losses.

[GoneGolfin]

Brian (in hopes you meant you don't want to reply to the prior posts), do we tactically schedule our OOC slate with your RPI evaluation in mind? Or is our baseball schedule determined completely irrespective of this "advice"?

I have not been involved in providing advice to baseball.

Note that given the RPI changes in baseball for 2013, I have a 5th axiom that I would add to the above list (baseball only). Maybe someone can venture a good guess as to what I am referring.

And, since we play who we play at this point, is the SBC in a position with their WPs to have a bad, neutral, or good effect on our RPI... given we do fairly well going forward?

Sorry if these are redundant (or even dumb) questions.

These are not dumb questions.

Remember that in 2013, it is Adjusted WP that is important (Adjustment factors are 0.7 and 1.3). While there are more OOC games remaining for our Sun Belt opponents, most of their OOC slate has been played and here is where their Adjusted WPs stand. Note that these are Adjusted WPs that would be used in calculating the Cajuns' Adjusted OWP ... which is different than their actual Adjusted WP once the Cajuns play them. Their Unadjusted WPs are in parentheses (WPs that would have been used as the Cajuns' OWPs using the 2012 formula).

#10 South Alabama .8564 (.8500)
#67 Arkansas State .6571 (.6842)
#130 Florida Atlantic .5638 (.6500)
#196 Troy .5369 (.6471)
#124 Middle Tennessee .4897 (.5500)
#154 Western Kentucky .4663 (.5263)
#149 Louisiana-Monroe .4431 (.4706)
#206 Arkansas-Little Rock .4000 (.5263)
#115 Florida International .3978 (.5000)
--
Average Adjusted OWP (Sun Belt opponents): .5346
Average Unadjusted OWP (Sun Belt opponents): .6005 (Used in 2012 RPI)

I would say that the Sun Belt is doing OK overall (certainly better than 2012, which was a bad year for the Sun Belt ... but similar to 2011). But not nearly as good as some folks think because they are looking at WP alone (which has been good).

The above illustrates why we want opponents that play easy schedules, not difficult ones. Florida International is a perfect illustration. Despite FIU having an RPI ranking of #115, FIU (today) would do more damage to the Cajuns' RPI than anyone in the conference (other than UALR). Add in the fact that they will be difficult to beat, the RPI risk substantially greater. In fact, playing #196 Troy would be substantially better for the Cajuns' RPI than #115 FIU.

Finally, I will say that scheduling New Orleans was a big mistake. I hope that game is never played. Playing that single game today (and winning) would drop the Cajuns 10 spots in today's RPI rankings.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

Both Boyd's and Warren Nolan match up right now.

No they do not. The Warren Nolan RPI is only the Base RPI (always has been) ... which is why it bears the least resemblance to the actual RPI used by the NCAA. Additionally, unless Warren Nolan changed his formula this year, he has never accounted for ties (neither does Boyd Nation).

And Boyd's is using the new formula...which is .6 for a home win and .6 for a road loss...and so forth.

I guess you missed my post responding to you yesterday on this.

Brian

[CajunAlum10]

Finally, I will say that scheduling New Orleans was a big mistake. I hope that game is never played. Playing that single game today (and winning) would drop the Cajuns 10 spots in today's RPI rankings.

Brian

I really wish there was a way we could tell Coach Robe to not give in to UNO getting a home game out of this. Can any of you big wigs that go to the Diamond Club meetings ask coach about what the chances are of us just nixing this game off completely? It seems like the smart thing to do.

Like Brian said, it could drop us 10 spots. Imagine at the end of the year if we have an RPI of 60 and without the UNO game we could be at 50... that's a huge difference when it comes to getting a Regional Invite.

[CajunRed]

Both Boyd's and Warren Nolan match up right now. And Boyd's is using the new formula...which is .6 for a home win and .6 for a road loss...and so forth.

Yep. Meant to say .7

[RaginScotsman]

It seems as though we've dropped a few spots already. UTSA lost 2 out of 3 to Tulane and for the time being dropped out of the top 50. As far as the UNO game goes, Robe may just want our team to play every given opportunity. An RPI hit may not be as valuable as experience. It sucks, but somehow I can see that as his logic. I may be wrong though.

[CajunRed]

In reality...if postseason is important...RPI is more important than playing a terrible UNO team from which nothing can be gained or learned. Jmo