Arkansas State Scouting Report

[NewsCopy]

  This week’s ASU is not last week’s ASU, that much is certain. In fact, the ASU’s are polar opposites. As a team, the Arkansas State Indians have struggled at the plate and in the field. Approaching the century mark for errors, this Indian team has kicked the ball around in 2007, averaging more than two errors per game. In recent conference weekends, the Indians have committed six and seven errors against Troy and Western Kentucky respectively. As such, Coach Keith Kessinger is working hard to provide a solution to address the woes in the field. Meanwhile, run production has also been a challenge at times this season. Not that 2006 1st Team All-Sun Belt and 3rd Team All-American Josh Yates has not been pulling his weight. The senior DH is hitting a cool .350 with 10 HRs and is slugging over .700, down just a bit from his .376 performance in ‘06. But overall, the Indians are mustering just over five runs per game and scored a mere five runs total against Troy last weekend. Complementing Yates is junior shortstop Ryan Hudgins (.325, 9 HR, 33 RBI), sophomore first baseman Brandon Eller (.324, 3 HR, 21 RBI), and sophomore catcher Drew Rogers (.311, 6 HR, 21 RBI).

The Indians do have some starting pitching and have the ability to make a game or two over the weekend a relatively low scoring affair, despite losing senior ace Joe Boeschen early in the season after failing to recover from a torn labrum suffered in 2006. Senior right-hander Nathan Gates (2-6, 4.48, .297 OBA) was the #2 starter in 2006 and has been the Friday night starter this season. However, Coach Kessinger has decided to go with senior right-hander T.J. Brewer (4-3, 2.48, .250 OBA), who has been filling the Saturday slot in the rotation, Friday night. Brewer, a two-time Sun Belt Pitcher of the Week selection that shutout South Alabama, has solved his control problems from a year ago when he averaged more than a walk an inning in 33 innings of action. The Sunday slot in the rotation has been sophomore left-hander Jett Jones (1-3, 5.40, .290 OBA), but he will move to Saturday leaving Gates in the Sunday slot of the rotation. While the bullpen is not deep, it is led by a senior that has been successful in the closer role over the past two seasons, right-hander Tim Egart (2-3, 4.02, .241 OBA, 5 Saves). The first guys out of the pen are workhorse sophomore right-hander Nick Lambert (5-1, 4.76, .254 OBA, 28 appearances) and junior right-hander Jacob Maggard (2-2, 3.43, .282 OBA).

If you are wondering how some of the arms in this series stacked up against each other last season, Gates and Brewer were knocked around by the Cajuns while Glass, Moody, and Farquhar had solid outings against the Indians, save Moody’s appearance against the Indians in the Sun Belt Conference tournament opener. Moody pitched a complete game win in game #1 last season, while Brewer was touched for six runs in 2.1 innings of middle relief. Glass recorded the win in game #2 while Gates was knocked out of the game after a start that lasted 3.2 innings. Farquhar earned the win in game #3 in late relief while Egart took the loss after being pounded for four runs in 2.1 innings. Moody earned the win in the conference tournament, despite yielding eleven hits and seven runs in five innings. Gates was pounded again in taking the loss, yielding six runs in a start that lasted only 1.1 innings. Farquhar hurled 6.1 innings of shutout ball against the Indians last season as a freshman, yielding only four hits.

The Indians are battling for a spot in the Sun Belt Tournament and would be out of the tournament if the season ended today due to a head-to-head tiebreaker with Florida Atlantic. This makes Arkansas State dangerous. Meanwhile, anything less than a sweep will damage the Cajuns’ RPI and allow New Orleans the chance to pull into a tie for first place in the league standings. With four weekends remaining in the regular season, crunch time is here.

Brian Benton

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  (18-26 Overall, 8-13 9th place SBC) (NCAA RPI 156)

Key Opponents:
Base RPI – Opponent – (W-L)
#9 Mississippi (0-2)
#38 Troy (0-3)
#49 Creighton (0-1)
#57 Oklahoma State (0-2)
#64 Middle Tennessee State (1-2)
#69 Florida Atlantic (1-2)
#78 New Orleans (1-2)
#94 Missouri State (0-2)
#97 Lamar (0-1)

vs. Base RPI Top 25 (0-2)
vs. Base RPI Top 50 (0-6)
vs. Base RPI Top 75 (2-12)
vs. Base RPI Top 100 (3-17)
Last Ten Games (4-6)
Home Record (11-12)
Road Record (7-14)

Team Batting
BA .275, HRs 39, Runs/Game 5.18, 2B 79, 11 3B, Slugging .417, SB 35/51

Team Pitching
ERA 5.52, .295 OBA, 386.1 IP, 182 BB, 311 K

Team Defense
Fielding .947, Errors 91, Double Plays 39

2006 Meetings
Game #1 Arkansas State 1 at Louisiana 10
Game #2 Arkansas State 4 at Louisiana 8
Game #3 Arkansas State 2 at Louisiana 6
SBC Tournament – Arkansas State 7 Louisiana 8

Brian Benton

[Turbine]

Would a sweep of ASU be like treading RPI water?

[CajunProud]

_ Would a sweep of ASU be like treading RPI water? _

Treading water is better than the drowning that we would do if we lost even one to them.

[GoneGolfin]

Would a sweep of ASU be like treading RPI water?

You cannot make that assessment unless you know how the opponents on your schedule fare this weekend. But I would say that in an average weekend, probably yes.

To give an example, our opponents did well the weekend we lost one to FIU. The Cajuns were in the teens and did not get clobbered too much. They may have actually risen from their original spot that weekend had they not lost a game.

Brian

[Just1More]

_ You cannot make that assessment unless you know how the opponents on your schedule fare this weekend. But I would say that in an average weekend, probably yes.

To give an example, our opponents did well the weekend we lost one to FIU. The Cajuns were in the teens and did not get clobbered too much. They may have actually risen from their original spot that weekend had they not lost a game.

Brian _

Brian,

The more mature a season is, is it fair to say that the RPI formula begins to knot up your position? I would think that with the extensive interconnection of RPI(s), by the time you reach 80 to 90% into the season, most teams have found their position. Is that correct?

If so, does that mean that we have little chance of a dramatic change? I would think for every team that we play that slips, there should be a counter rise. Sorry if you have answered this before, or if my line of thinking is off track. It just seems like we would have little chance of moving up or down 5 spots or more. Right?

[GoneGolfin]

Brian,

The more mature a season is, is it fair to say that the RPI formula begins to knot up your position? I would think that with the extensive interconnection of RPI(s), by the time you reach 80 to 90% into the season, most teams have found their position. Is that correct?

Yes, as the season progresses and inter-connectivity increases, the RPI certainly becomes less volatile.

But I would also say that nearly all teams do not reach 80 to 90% connectivity. Only three teams will this season. And most teams have not found their position in the rankings. But again, the changes will be less volatile.

Note that the Cajuns still have less than 50% connectivity with the other Division I schools. When they have completed their full regular season schedule, they will be at 54.8% connectivity. The median is at about 61% with the high being 84.9% (Winthrop) and the low being 23.3% (Grambling State). This spread partly illustrates why the RPI is not a good tool to measure the strength of a team.

If so, does that mean that we have little chance of a dramatic change? I would think for every team that we play that slips, there should be a counter rise. Sorry if you have answered this before, or if my line of thinking is off track. It just seems like we would have little chance of moving up or down 5 spots or more. Right?

No. It really depends on what teams are left on your schedule, along with your opponents' schedules and your opponents' opponents' schedules. But for simplicity, let's just take into account your own schedule. The amount of rise or fall really depends on who you perform and the rating of the teams that you play. For example, it will be difficult to move up if you are in the Top 20 and your remaining schedule plays teams in the 150 -> 200 range. In fact, you run the risk of a significant drop if you lose any of those games.

On the other hand, if your ranking is in the 175 range and you play the above schedule, .500 play against that schedule is not going to change your ranking or rating much.

The Cajuns could easily move 20 spots in the down direction if they play .500 ball the rest of the season. But it will also depend on how their opponents and opponents' opponents perform. They could fall 30 spots if they perform worse. The upside is much more limited as the remaining Cajun opponents simply do not have strong RPIs (Houston is the highest and this is only one game). Let's say the Cajuns went undefeated the remainder of the regular season. I think you are probably looking at about a five to seven spot move upwards. But this is just a guess and there are some other variables involved, as previously stated.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

I should add this as well, as I think this is what you were alluding to in one of your statements ...

If you had full connectivity (100%) and equivalent schedules among all of the teams (i.e. like a conference schedule), then an opponent that won three games against another opponent (Team A played both opponents) would effectively cancel one another.

Yes, as the season progresses and inter-connectivity increases, the RPI certainly becomes less volatile.

But I would also say that nearly all teams do not reach 80 to 90% connectivity. Only three teams will this season. And most teams have not found their position in the rankings. But again, the changes will be less volatile.

Note that the Cajuns still have less than 50% connectivity with the other Division I schools. When they have completed their full regular season schedule, they will be at 54.8% connectivity. The median is at about 61% with the high being 84.9% (Winthrop) and the low being 23.3% (Grambling State). This spread partly illustrates why the RPI is not a good tool to measure the strength of a team.


No. It really depends on what teams are left on your schedule, along with your opponents' schedules and your opponents' opponents' schedules. But for simplicity, let's just take into account your own schedule. The amount of rise or fall really depends on who you perform and the rating of the teams that you play. For example, it will be difficult to move up if you are in the Top 20 and your remaining schedule plays teams in the 150 -> 200 range. In fact, you run the risk of a significant drop if you lose any of those games.

On the other hand, if your ranking is in the 175 range and you play the above schedule, .500 play against that schedule is not going to change your ranking or rating much.

The Cajuns could easily move 20 spots in the down direction if they play .500 ball the rest of the season. But it will also depend on how their opponents and opponents' opponents perform. They could fall 30 spots if they perform worse. The upside is much more limited as the remaining Cajun opponents simply do not have strong RPIs (Houston is the highest and this is only one game). Let's say the Cajuns went undefeated the remainder of the regular season. I think you are probably looking at about a five to seven spot move upwards. But this is just a guess and there are some other variables involved, as previously stated.

Brian

[Just1More]

_ Yes, as the season progresses and inter-connectivity increases, the RPI certainly becomes less volatile.

But I would also say that nearly all teams do not reach 80 to 90% connectivity. Only three teams will this season. And most teams have not found their position in the rankings. But again, the changes will be less volatile.

Note that the Cajuns still have less than 50% connectivity with the other Division I schools. When they have completed their full regular season schedule, they will be at 54.8% connectivity. The median is at about 61% with the high being 84.9% (Winthrop) and the low being 23.3% (Grambling State). This spread partly illustrates why the RPI is not a good tool to measure the strength of a team.


No. It really depends on what teams are left on your schedule, along with your opponents' schedules and your opponents' opponents' schedules. But for simplicity, let's just take into account your own schedule. The amount of rise or fall really depends on who you perform and the rating of the teams that you play. For example, it will be difficult to move up if you are in the Top 20 and your remaining schedule plays teams in the 150 -> 200 range. In fact, you run the risk of a significant drop if you lose any of those games.

On the other hand, if your ranking is in the 175 range and you play the above schedule, .500 play against that schedule is not going to change your ranking or rating much.

The Cajuns could easily move 20 spots in the down direction if they play .500 ball the rest of the season. But it will also depend on how their opponents and opponents' opponents perform. They could fall 30 spots if they perform worse. The upside is much more limited as the remaining Cajun opponents simply do not have strong RPIs (Houston is the highest and this is only one game). Let's say the Cajuns went undefeated the remainder of the regular season. I think you are probably looking at about a five to seven spot move upwards. But this is just a guess and there are some other variables involved, as previously stated.

Brian _

Thanks Brian. Excellent explanation.