Season long look at UL's trek through the Baseball RPI rankings

[GoneGolfin]

I think that it is likely that the Cajuns will move past Mississippi and Virginia into the #11 spot, temporarily, and close ground on Texas A&M at #10 in tomorrow's RPI calculation. San Diego will fall a bit away from the Cajuns. Mississippi will lose a little ground, but will be very close to the Cajuns and can pass them with another win against a more tired Vanderbilt team tomorrow. Missouri and Clemson will fall further away, but Miami will close some ground on the Cajuns after the win over FSU.

Virginia, Mississippi, and possibly Miami and Arkansas will have a chance to pass the Cajuns tomorrow.

Brian

Virginia jumped a significant amount, despite being idle (.0019) and the Cajuns actually fell .0002 because of what its opponents and opponents' opponents did yesterday. But everything else held above. The Cajuns are at #12, up from #13 ...

1 0.6403 Rice
2 0.6280 Texas
3 0.6275 Vanderbilt
4 0.6236 North Carolina
5 0.6200 Arizona State
6 0.6147 Coastal Carolina
7 0.6126 Florida State
8 0.6083 South Carolina
9 0.6076 Long Beach State
10 0.6070 Virginia
11 0.6065 Texas A&M
12 0.6042 Louisiana-Lafayette
13 0.6031 Mississippi
14 0.6012 San Diego
15 0.5966 Miami Florida
16 0.5930 Missouri
17 0.5926 Arkansas
18 0.5900 North Carolina State
19 0.5889 Arizona
20 0.5867 Wichita State
21 0.5861 Clemson
22 0.5849 Wake Forest
23 0.5832 Oklahoma
24 0.5820 Mississippi State
25 0.5820 Southern Mississippi
26 0.5813 Baylor
27 0.5807 Georgia Tech
28 0.5800 Cal State Fullerton
29 0.5798 East Carolina
30 0.5783 Nebraska
31 0.5769 UC Irvine
32 0.5744 Texas Christian
33 0.5734 Creighton
34 0.5732 Kansas State
35 0.5727 Oregon State

There is not a lot of difference between teams #8 -> #14 (South Carolina -> San Diego). The Cajuns still have room to move up if they win today.

Note that Southern Mississippi could fall out of the Top 25 RPI if Baylor wins today. Georgia Tech, CSF, ECU, and Nebraska could pass them as well. Mississippi State could stay in front of them or fall behind (both MSU and USM are idle here on out).

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

Arkansas 3 South Carolina 2 Final
Arkansas was already a lock for a host and #1 seed. But they may pass UL in the RPI. Maybe not today. But possibly if they win the SEC Tournament. They advance to the finals of the SEC Tournament and could be a national seed with a tournament championship. However, it is possible that the Cajuns could catch South Carolina with a win today.

Texas A&M 7 Kansas State 2 Final
A&M is just ahead of the Cajuns in the RPI. However, A&M probably at least needs to make the Big XII Tournament finals (if not win it) to earn a #1 seed and host regional. If Texas beats Nebraska, Texas A&M will advance to the Big XII tournament finals after losing the opener to Nebraska. Texas A&M is now 15-14 in conference. The NCAA selection committee has never granted a #1 seed to a team finishing 5th or lower in conference and a non-winning record in conference games.

Virginia 0 North Carolina 0 (B 1st)
Again, this is simply important because Virginia is just ahead of the Cajuns in the RPI. Both will be hosting, North Carolina as a national seed and Virginia as a national seed if they can at least make the ACC finals.

Wake Forest vs. Miami
Cajun fans really need Wake Forest to win this one. A Miami win and a Florida State win sends the Hurricanes to the ACC finals. Miami could play its way into a host regional with an ACC Finals appearance or ACC tournament championship. Miami is closing on on UL in the RPI.

Clemson vs. Florida State
Cajuns fans need Florida State to win this one. A Clemson win and Miami win sends the Tigers to the ACC finals. Clemson can play their way into a host regional with an ACC Finals appearance or ACC tournament championship. Clemson is closing on on UL in the RPI.

Mississippi vs. Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt is a national seed and Mississippi is nearly a lock as a host. Mississippi is just behind UL in the RPI and will pass the Cajuns with a win today.

San Diego vs. Gonzaga
San Diego should be a #1 seed and host. But San Diego is not far behind the Cajuns in RPI.

Creighton vs. Wichita State
Wichita State must beat Creighton twice to win the MVC. If they do, Wichita State may work themselves in as a #1 seed and will host. If they are a #2 seed, they could still host. But the NCAA may decide not to have a regional in Columbia, Missouri and Wichita, Kansas. Hopefully Creighton knocks off Wichita State today in the first game.

Liberty 2 Coastal Carolina 2 (T 4th) Game #1
If Liberty rallies and defeats Coastal Carolina twice, Coastal Carolina's RPI could fall far enough that they will be close to the Cajuns. It is possible that the Cajuns could move ahead in the pecking order with a conference regular season championship and tournament title from the #7 RPI conference. As opposed to Coastal Carolina's regular season championship (11 RPI conference) only in this scenario. Also, common opponents between the two school? Troy. Coastal Carolina lost 2/3 at Troy in April. The Cajuns took 3/4 from Troy with three of those games at Troy.

Missouri vs. Oklahoma State
It is possible that Missouri could lose a #1 seed and host regional with an 0-3 conference tournament performance. But I think that Missouri is still a likely #1 seed and host after finishing second in the Big XII (#2 RPI conference).

Long Beach State at Cal-State Fullerton
It is not far fetched to think that the Cajuns could catch Long Beach State in the RPI. They lost last night to Cal-State Fullerton and have two more games against the Titans. Long Beach State is currently in third place in the Big West and could finish as low as fourth. These games will be interesting. Long Beach State is not a lock for a #1 seed and host regional.

Arizona is a threat to snag a fourth western regional and #1 seed. The Wildcats' season is finished and they currently sit at #19 in the RPI after finishing second in the Pac 10.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

Scores updated inline ...

Arkansas 3 South Carolina 2 Final
Arkansas was already a lock for a host and #1 seed. But they may pass UL in the RPI. Maybe not today. But possibly if they win the SEC Tournament. They advance to the finals of the SEC Tournament and could be a national seed with a tournament championship. However, it is possible that the Cajuns could catch South Carolina with a win today.

Texas A&M 7 Kansas State 2 Final
A&M is just ahead of the Cajuns in the RPI. However, A&M probably at least needs to make the Big XII Tournament finals (if not win it) to earn a #1 seed and host regional. If Texas beats Nebraska, Texas A&M will advance to the Big XII tournament finals after losing the opener to Nebraska. Texas A&M is now 15-14 in conference. The NCAA selection committee has never granted a #1 seed to a team finishing 5th or lower in conference and a non-winning record in conference games.

Texas 4 Nebraska 3 (B 7th)

Virginia 0 North Carolina 5 Final
Again, this is simply important because Virginia is just ahead of the Cajuns in the RPI. Both will be hosting, North Carolina as a national seed and Virginia as a national seed if they can at least make the ACC finals.

Wake Forest vs. Miami
Cajun fans really need Wake Forest to win this one. A Miami win and a Florida State win sends the Hurricanes to the ACC finals. Miami could play its way into a host regional with an ACC Finals appearance or ACC tournament championship. Miami is closing on on UL in the RPI.

Clemson vs. Florida State
Cajuns fans need Florida State to win this one. A Clemson win and Miami win sends the Tigers to the ACC finals. Clemson can play their way into a host regional with an ACC Finals appearance or ACC tournament championship. Clemson is closing on on UL in the RPI.

Vanderbilt 13 Mississippi 1 Final
Vanderbilt is a national seed and Mississippi is nearly a lock as a host. Mississippi is just behind UL in the RPI and will pass the Cajuns with a win today.

San Diego vs. Gonzaga
San Diego should be a #1 seed and host. But San Diego is not far behind the Cajuns in RPI.

Creighton 1 Wichita State 2 Final
Wichita State must beat Creighton twice to win the MVC. If they do, Wichita State may work themselves in as a #1 seed and will host. If they are a #2 seed, they could still host. But the NCAA may decide not to have a regional in Columbia, Missouri and Wichita, Kansas. Hopefully Creighton knocks off Wichita State today in the first game.

Liberty 5 Coastal Carolina 6 (T 4th) Final
If Liberty rallies and defeats Coastal Carolina twice, Coastal Carolina's RPI could fall far enough that they will be close to the Cajuns. It is possible that the Cajuns could move ahead in the pecking order with a conference regular season championship and tournament title from the #7 RPI conference. As opposed to Coastal Carolina's regular season championship (11 RPI conference) only in this scenario. Also, common opponents between the two school? Troy. Coastal Carolina lost 2/3 at Troy in April. The Cajuns took 3/4 from Troy with three of those games at Troy.

Missouri vs. Oklahoma State
It is possible that Missouri could lose a #1 seed and host regional with an 0-3 conference tournament performance. But I think that Missouri is still a likely #1 seed and host after finishing second in the Big XII (#2 RPI conference).

Long Beach State at Cal-State Fullerton
It is not far fetched to think that the Cajuns could catch Long Beach State in the RPI. They lost last night to Cal-State Fullerton and have two more games against the Titans. Long Beach State is currently in third place in the Big West and could finish as low as fourth. These games will be interesting. Long Beach State is not a lock for a #1 seed and host regional.

Arizona is a threat to snag a fourth western regional and #1 seed. The Wildcats' season is finished and they currently sit at #19 in the RPI after finishing second in the Pac 10.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

Updating inline again ...

Arkansas 3 South Carolina 2 Final
Arkansas was already a lock for a host and #1 seed. But they may pass UL in the RPI. Maybe not today. But possibly if they win the SEC Tournament. They advance to the finals of the SEC Tournament and could be a national seed with a tournament championship. However, it is possible that the Cajuns could catch South Carolina with a win today.

Texas A&M 7 Kansas State 2 Final
A&M is just ahead of the Cajuns in the RPI. However, A&M probably at least needs to make the Big XII Tournament finals (if not win it) to earn a #1 seed and host regional. If Texas beats Nebraska, Texas A&M will advance to the Big XII tournament finals after losing the opener to Nebraska. Texas A&M is now 15-14 in conference. The NCAA selection committee has never granted a #1 seed to a team finishing 5th or lower in conference and a non-winning record in conference games.

Update ...
Texas A&M has now advanced to the Big XII Tournament finals against the Baylor - Oklahoma winner. But if they lose, they will end up 15-15 in conference. The problem is that the championship game will not be completed by the time the host regionals are selected and announced.

Virginia 0 North Carolina 5 Final
Again, this is simply important because Virginia is just ahead of the Cajuns in the RPI. Both will be hosting.

Update ...
Virginia will stay ahead of the Cajuns in the RPI.

Wake Forest vs. Miami
Cajun fans really need Wake Forest to win this one. A Miami win and a Florida State win sends the Hurricanes to the ACC finals. Miami could play its way into a host regional with an ACC Finals appearance or ACC tournament championship. Miami is closing in on UL in the RPI and could possibly pass them with a win tonight.

Update ...
Now a Wake Forest win send them to the ACC finals against North Carolina. This is exactly what the Cajuns want. Clemson beat Florida State and can advance with a Miami win.

Florida State 1 Clemson 5 Final
Cajuns fans need Florida State to win this one. A Clemson win and Miami win sends the Tigers to the ACC finals. Clemson can play their way into a host regional with an ACC Finals appearance or ACC tournament championship. Clemson is closing in on UL in the RPI.

Update ...
Clemson won this game, but needs Miami to defeat Wake Forest to send the Tigers to the ACC finals against North Carolina.

Vanderbilt 13 Mississippi 1 Final Game #1
Vanderbilt is a national seed and Mississippi is probably a host. Mississippi is just behind UL in the RPI and will pass the Cajuns with a win today.

Mississippi 3 Vanderbilt 2 (T 6th) Game #2

Update ...
Another Vanderbilt win over Mississippi would be nice as there is an outside chance that the Cajuns could stay ahead of Ole Miss in the RPI.

San Diego 11 Gonzaga 4 (B 7th)
San Diego should be a #1 seed and host. But San Diego is not far behind the Cajuns in RPI.

Update ...
A San Diego win here will send the Torreros back above the Cajuns again in the RPI.

Creighton 1 Wichita State 2 Final Game #1
Wichita State must beat Creighton twice to win the MVC. If they do, Wichita State may work themselves in as a #1 seed and will host. If they are a #2 seed, they could still host. But the NCAA may decide not to have a regional in Columbia, Missouri and Wichita, Kansas. Hopefully Creighton knocks off Wichita State today in the first game.

Creighton vs. Wichita State Game #2

Update ...
Wichita State wins game #1 and the two play for the MVC tournament championship tonight. Cajun fans need Creighton to win this game.

Liberty 5 Coastal Carolina 6 Final Game #1
If Liberty rallies and defeats Coastal Carolina twice, Coastal Carolina's RPI could fall far enough that they will be close to the Cajuns. It is possible that the Cajuns could move ahead in the pecking order with a conference regular season championship and tournament title from the #7 RPI conference. As opposed to Coastal Carolina's regular season championship (11 RPI conference) only in this scenario. Also, common opponents between the two school? Troy. Coastal Carolina lost 2/3 at Troy in April. The Cajuns took 3/4 from Troy with three of those games at Troy.

Update ...
Coastal Carolina has a decent shot at a national seed and will be a regional host.

Missouri 4 Oklahoma State 0 (T 4th)
It is possible that Missouri could lose a #1 seed and host regional with an 0-3 conference tournament performance. But I think that Missouri is still a likely #1 seed and host after finishing second in the Big XII (#2 RPI conference).

Long Beach State at Cal-State Fullerton
It is not far fetched to think that the Cajuns could catch Long Beach State in the RPI. They lost last night to Cal-State Fullerton and have two more games against the Titans. Long Beach State is currently in third place in the Big West and could finish as low as fourth. These games will be interesting. Long Beach State is not a lock for a #1 seed and host regional.

Arizona is a threat to snag a fourth western regional and #1 seed. The Wildcats' season is finished and they currently sit at #19 in the RPI after finishing second in the Pac 10.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

the Ole Miss/Vandy game ...

Brian

[Turbine]

TIA . . . for all the hard work. . . . even though it is fun.

[GoneGolfin]

TIA . . . for all the hard work. . . . even though it is fun.

This is the annual week where I sleep less than normal. About two to three hours a night. But it is fun. And it helps prepare my mind for what the selection committee will do, instead of allowing them to surprise me.

Brian

[J-Town Cajun]

Vandy scores 4 runs in the bottom of the 10th inning to beat Ole Miss today. Ole Miss losses 2 games today and go 2-2 in their tourney. They should remain behind the Cajuns in RPI.

[ulforlife]

_ the Ole Miss/Vandy game ...

Brian _

???

I'm so nervous about this now...

[ulforlife]

I've got a bad feeling about this

[GoneGolfin]

Vandy scores 4 runs in the bottom of the 10th inning to beat Ole Miss today. Ole Miss losses 2 games today and go 2-2 in their tourney. They should remain behind the Cajuns in RPI.

It will be very close. Mississippi was only .0011 behind the Cajuns entering today. A loss to New Orleans (#95, .5252) will probably cost the Cajuns about .0030 to .0035. The Cajuns are at (#12, .6042) entering today. Mississippi was (#13, .6031) entering today. They have two losses to Vandy to absorb. But Vandy was (#3, .6275) entering today.

I should have the numbers in the next hour or so.

Brian

[J-Town Cajun]

It may come down to Wake Forest beating Miami tonight. If Miami wins their game they may pass us in RPI and host but this also puts Clemson in the ACC championship game and with a win they would most definitly host. We need the ACC to only have 3 host schools not 4.

Geaux Demons.