Season long look at UL's trek through the Baseball RPI rankings

[ulforlife]

_ For us not to be in the top 25 is ludicrous. Manieri and Jones must have voting privileges and have been warned by their AD's to make sure we get no votes. _

But guess who will, and who will not make the regionals...

[CajunRed]

The Ragin' Cajun baseball team's RPI is currently 16 or so by Warren Nolan... but BOYD'S WORLD has the Cajuns currently at "13", which they say has the proper adjustments and bonuses (as the NCAA's RPI does).

Brian... what do you think about its accuracy?

Here's the link... http://www.boydsworld.com/baseball/rpi/currentrpi.html

[GoneGolfin]

The Ragin' Cajun baseball team's RPI is currently 16 or so by Warren Nolan... but BOYD'S WORLD has the Cajuns currently at "13", which they say has the proper adjustments and bonuses (as the NCAA's RPI does).

Brian... what do you think about its accuracy?

Here's the link... http://www.boydsworld.com/baseball/rpi/currentrpi.html

I prefer the one produced by SEBaseball.com since it properly includes ties. But the two (Boyd and SEBaseball) are going to be close. BTW, I am referring to the rating, not the ranking.

I don't have the SEBaseball RPI numbers from today yet. But I have them from yesterday (after the Lamar win) and can illustrate the comparison to Boyd's numbers from yesterday.

Wednesday morning (4/4) calculations for UL (after Lamar win) ...
SEBaseball.com
Base RPI (.6066, #17), Adjusted RPI (.6150, #14)

Boyd Nation's RPI
Adjusted RPI (.616, #14)

A few notes ...
Nobody knows exactly what adjustments are used by the NCAA. But based on reverse engineering of the formulas each year, they are close. The NCAA does change these from time to time.

Boyd only displays the ratings to the thousandths decimal place (although he calculates to the ten-thousandths decimal place). Hence, you may not see a change from day to day, but the rating is changing.

While Warrennolan.com does not calculate the Adjusted RPI, just the Base RPI, the Base RPI calculation is also not quite correct. I don't even bother with this site.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

The numbers from today (4/5) are ...

SEBaseball.com
Base RPI (.6068, #18), Adjusted RPI (.6152, #13)

Boyd Nation's RPI
Adjusted RPI (.616, #14)

I prefer the one produced by SEBaseball.com since it properly includes ties. But the two (Boyd and SEBaseball) are going to be close. BTW, I am referring to the rating, not the ranking.

I don't have the SEBaseball RPI numbers from today yet. But I have them from yesterday (after the Lamar win) and can illustrate the comparison to Boyd's numbers from yesterday.

Wednesday morning (4/4) calculations for UL (after Lamar win) ...
SEBaseball.com
Base RPI (.6066, #17), Adjusted RPI (.6150, #14)

Boyd Nation's RPI
Adjusted RPI (.616, #14)

A few notes ...
Nobody knows exactly what adjustments are used by the NCAA. But based on reverse engineering of the formulas each year, they are close. The NCAA does change these from time to time.

Boyd only displays the ratings to the thousandths decimal place (although he calculates to the ten-thousandths decimal place). Hence, you may not see a change from day to day, but the rating is changing.

While Warrennolan.com does not calculate the Adjusted RPI, just the Base RPI, the Base RPI calculation is also not quite correct. I don't even bother with this site.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

that at this point in the season, Texas-San Antonio is the third highest RPI on the Cajun schedule (behind Arizona State and Southern Mississippi) and second highest RPI team the Cajuns have played?

With a Base RPI in the Top 50, the Cajuns are getting a nice RPI bonus boost from sweeping three games on the road from the Road Runners.

Brian

[El Sidonio]

I can understand how losing 2/3 to USM wouldn't really hurt our RPI considering how well they're doing. But, losing 2/3 to MTSU and 1 a piece to Nwst and FIU, I'm surprised our RPI is as high as it is. Now maybe I just don't know all of the big picture, but when I us hiccup and lose to teams like that, I feel fortunate for our RPI to be as high as it is. BTW, are we ranked top 25 in any of the polls yet?

God Bless

[Turbine]

So in a year when McNeese was down Texas-San Antonio saves the RPI day.

[rhineaux]

_ I can understand how losing 2/3 to USM wouldn't really hurt our RPI considering how well they're doing. But, losing 2/3 to MTSU and 1 a piece to Nwst and FIU, I'm surprised our RPI is as high as it is. Now maybe I just don't know all of the big picture, but when I us hiccup and lose to teams like that, I feel fortunate for our RPI to be as high as it is. BTW, are we ranked top 25 in any of the polls yet?

God Bless _

The reason some of those haven't effected us as much is because they are all road games, and road losses to bad teams aren't as bad as home losses to bad teams, as i understand it.

[CrazyCajun]

mcnees is riding a 6 game winning streak, hopefully they can keep iy up and maybe pull their rpi out of the dirt

[GoneGolfin]

I can understand how losing 2/3 to USM wouldn't really hurt our RPI considering how well they're doing. But, losing 2/3 to MTSU and 1 a piece to Nwst and FIU, I'm surprised our RPI is as high as it is. Now maybe I just don't know all of the big picture, but when I us hiccup and lose to teams like that, I feel fortunate for our RPI to be as high as it is. BTW, are we ranked top 25 in any of the polls yet?

God Bless

Winning 1/3 against USM actually helped the Cajun RPI. But how much it helps has been diminishing lately as they have been dropping like a rock.

Losing 2/3 to MTSU hurt the RPI some. But it was not catastrophic as they are at #63. Northwestern State is much higher than they were earlier in the year (when we played them). They actually vaulted into the Top 80 (from the 200's), but are now sitting at #131. Losing one to FIU hurt some, but they are now over 70 spots higher than before the Cajuns played them.

One thing to consider (which I addressed in another thread today) is that the Cajuns have a very strong road sweep over UTSA (#48). This road sweep results in some nice RPI bonus points (2nd level bonus - non conference road win against a Top 50 Base RPI team). There are also some teams with decent RPIs on the schedule. The Cajuns earned an RPI bonus against SLU (#60). They also have three wins over FAU (#67).

Happy Easter!

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

The reason some of those haven't effected us as much is because they are all road games, and road losses to bad teams aren't as bad as home losses to bad teams, as i understand it.

In the case of the Cajuns' schedule, the above does not apply. None of the Cajun losses this season would have resulted in an RPI penalty had they been played at home. And other than that, home/road plays no factor in the calculation of the RPI (on the penalty side).

Also, the RPI penalties only apply to non-conference road games.

In fact, the only game on the schedule that was an RPI penalty risk at this point was the opener against Nicholls State (which was won). McNeese State is now 23 spots out of the penalty range. There are no teams left on the schedule that are close to penalty range.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

The latest RPI (4/7) is one of those situations where it becomes obvious that RPI is heavily dependent on how your opponents and opponents' opponents fare. (75% of the formula)

I don't have the SEBaseball.com numbers yet this morning, but the 4/6 Adjusted RPI was .6166 (#12). Boyd's Adjusted RPI from 4/6 was .616 (#12).

This morning, Boyd's Adjusted RPI was .614 (#13). A non-trivial drop after a decent win against a Top 100 RPI club. Why? It was due to Cajun opponents, especially the higher rated ones (RPI bonuses dwindle), not performing well last night.

The following non-conference Top 75 RPI Cajun opponents lost last night ... the only non-conference Top 75 RPI opponents thus far ...

Southern Mississippi (at Central Florida)
Southeastern Louisiana (vs. McNeese State)
Texas-San Antonio (at Texas-Arlington)

Other non-conference Cajun oponents lost last night, but I focus on the above schools since they constitute RPI bonus points for the Cajuns. Both Southeastern Louisiana and Texas-San Antonio dropped a bonus level with last night's losses (from Top 50 Base RPI to Top 75 Base RPI). Southern Mississippi continues to slump and may soon find themselves outside of the Top 50 Base RPI.

Remember that opponents winning percentage constitutes 50% of the Base RPI.

For those that are interested, Arizona State (aRPI 21) did win last night over Stanford. Those that would like to see the Sun Devils play may be able to catch them on DirecTV channel 649 at 3pm today. Josh Satow threw last night for the Sun Devils and Mike Leake will probably go today. Tulane's loss to Memphis (aRPI 23) dropped them to #56 in Boyd's aRPI.

Incidentally, we are now at the point of the season where the RPI is becoming meaningful (as far as stability of the formula is concerned). We are now at the point of the season where half of the field of 293 Div. I teams are connected to a degree that make the RPI system meaningful.

Brian