Season long look at UL's trek through the Baseball RPI rankings

[rhineaux]

I understand the concept of playing enough games to give the RPI a valid base, but how does Lafayette with two games, against I don't know who have a higher rank than a team with 8 wins and no loses? That defies logic. I might understand it if the team with two wins also was a national power year after year, but the Lafayette Leopards?

I am not sure where warrennolan.com gets their RPI, but they have Stetson having an RPI of 8. and, our conference wasn't ranked in the top ten either. I also noticed that they have our strength of schedule ranked in the 170s or something like that. That's not too good, right now, but should get better. Especially with FAU and Troy being regarded so well. and if teams like Ill. and USM do well in their conferences. It kinda sucks becasue we don't have any harvards or albany's on our sechedule this year, but or SOS is still low. If you start losing those games, though, then that is only when it matters. just gotta win, no matter who is on the field.

[Turbine]

I am going out on a limb here . . . Early in the season when you sweep a team that hasn't played any other games it kills your SOS.

[rhineaux]

I am going out on a limb here . . . Early in the season when you sweep a team that hasn't played any other games it kills your SOS.

touche' my friend.

[RaginFan2]

I am going out on a limb here . . . Early in the season when you sweep a team that hasn't played any other games it kills your SOS.

I think you found a pretty sturdy, low-lying limb to climb out on! LOL

[cajunfan79]

To add my two cents on the weekend, the season so far, and whatever else...

I think our pitching will get better. Remember how little work they were able to get in January with all the weather. Plus, in recent years, we didn't have a whole lot of depth and so there wasn't as much initiative for one player to step up. this year, you ahve several guys (other than Moody and glass) who are battling for two starting spots (Saturday/midweek, depending on where glass ends up, and sunday). that competition will definitely force somebody to step up and take the slot, and will definitely put that pitcher in a position to take over in case some of our pitchers decide to go a different direction come amateur draft time.

Secondly, one of the beefs that i've had the past several years with tony's clubs is the runners left on base. they have consistently done this over the past threee or four years for sure, and haven't shown much improvement, if any at all. I can't remember how many time i would listen to a game where we'd lose by a couple runs, and then leave 8-10 runners on base for the game. this team left plenty of runners on base this weekend, but, they also hit the ball a lot. there is a difference between getting the lead man in scoring position, then flying/grounding/striking out the next three, to having runners on the whole inning, and then there happens to still be runners on base when the third out is made. this team did a pretty good job of hitting with two outs this weekend. It certainly seems that, whether becasue of Sczef's system, or Sczef's recruiting, that the hitting is really coming around. We are beginning to see guys that aren't just good hitters or fielders, but have both, in addition to the other small tools that you need to be competitive nationally. Thanks Coach Sczef.

I don't have the stats in front of me, but I heard stevie P say that this team so far this year has a ton of 2 out RBIs. That sounds like clutch hitting to me and not leaving to many on base. I mean come on give the guys a break, they are averaging 10 runs a game!

[evangelinetiger]

LOL! Was there ever any doubt?

Z.

I don't know pepperfan, I went to webiste to check on the lies that may or may not have been spewed on this site and I found out that the site refers to ULL as:


LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE

Not Louisiana.


Worry about that 39% graduation rate and those NCAA sanctions header your way.

[Southpaw03]

Enjoy your weekend! Give my best to your son!

Z.

Will do, Buddy! Thanks, as always, for your best wishes. Ya'll holler real loud so I can hear you on the radio. If you do hook up with Brian, please give him my best also. Someday I would like to meet him as I have been a fan of his writing for quite sometime. I hope your daughter's flu in her elbow gets better soon! LOL!

Scott

[Zeebart21]

Will do, Buddy! Thanks, as always, for your best wishes. Ya'll holler real loud so I can hear you on the radio. If you do hook up with Brian, please give him my best also. Someday I would like to meet him as I have been a fan of his writing for quite sometime. I hope your daughter's flu in her elbow gets better soon! LOL!

Scott

[DeadRed]

Gotta love the RPI. (Warren Nolan style)

UL 8-0 rpi of 67
Illinois 0-3 rpi 63

and swept outta here

[GoneGolfin]

I understand the concept of playing enough games to give the RPI a valid base, but how does Lafayette with two games, against I don't know who have a higher rank than a team with 8 wins and no loses? That defies logic. I might understand it if the team with two wins also was a national power year after year, but the Lafayette Leopards?

The RPI knows nothing about national powers or the reputation of any of the schools. It is all about wins and losses, as well as your opponent's wins and losses and your opponents' opponents wins and losses. It is purely statistical in nature and past results are not taken into account.

In the case of Lafayette, they defeated a team that had a decent start, a team that beat some teams that have started very well themselves. But keep in mind that this collection of teams have not played anyone significant. And since the games played are not "well connected" yet, they are just as valuable as many other wins at this point in the season.

You have to throw out all perceptions of the strength of the individual teams. And because it is all statistically based, it is not going to make much sense against our perceptions at this point in time.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

I am not sure where warrennolan.com gets their RPI, but they have Stetson having an RPI of 8. and, our conference wasn't ranked in the top ten either. I also noticed that they have our strength of schedule ranked in the 170s or something like that. That's not too good, right now, but should get better. Especially with FAU and Troy being regarded so well. and if teams like Ill. and USM do well in their conferences. It kinda sucks becasue we don't have any harvards or albany's on our sechedule this year, but or SOS is still low. If you start losing those games, though, then that is only when it matters. just gotta win, no matter who is on the field.

Warren Nolan only calculates the Base RPI. This is significantly different from the RPI the NCAA uses. The formula Warren uses is simple and the standard Base RPI calculation, other than the way that ties are accounted for.

Conference ranking plays absolutely no part in the RPI. You cannot derive any meaning from the RPI or SOS at this point. Too few games have been played.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

This is just the Base RPI ...

(3/4/07) Through Games of 3/3/2007

Rank RPI Team Rec Conf WP OWP OOWP

1 0.7035 Central Connecticut State 2-0 NE 1.000 0.8182 0.1776
2 0.6966 Southern Mississippi 9-2 CUSA 0.818 0.7144 0.5393
3 0.6757 Auburn 12-2 SEC 0.857 0.6716 0.5022
4 0.6722 Memphis 6-1 CUSA 0.857 0.6100 0.6116
5 0.6662 Stetson 10-3 ASUN 0.769 0.6562 0.5832
6 0.6655 Rice 10-5 CUSA 0.667 0.7347 0.5260
7 0.6572 Minnesota 4-1 B10 0.800 0.6242 0.5804
8 0.6561 Louisiana-Lafayette 11-1 SBC 0.917 0.5428 0.6220
9 0.6527 Cal State Fullerton 11-5 BigW 0.688 0.6607 0.6016
10 0.6502 Long Beach State 8-4 BigW 0.667 0.6453 0.6437
11 0.6474 Southern Illinois 9-3 MVC 0.750 0.6112 0.6170
12 0.6354 Mississippi 9-4 SEC 0.692 0.6421 0.5650
13 0.6351 Florida State 16-0 ACC 1.000 0.5155 0.5094
14 0.6343 Furman 3-5 SoCon 0.375 0.8932 0.3758
15 0.6290 Arizona State 12-4 P10 0.750 0.6174 0.5310
16 0.6277 North Carolina State 10-2 ACC 0.833 0.5881 0.5010
17 0.6252 Akron 4-1 MAC 0.800 0.5939 0.5131
18 0.6222 Southern California 12-7 P10 0.632 0.6314 0.5944
19 0.6210 Texas A&M 14-1 B12 0.933 0.4976 0.5556
20 0.6210 Texas 11-6 B12 0.647 0.6261 0.5847
21 0.6174 South Carolina 9-1 SEC 0.900 0.5065 0.5568
22 0.6161 Wright State 2-3 Hor 0.400 0.7200 0.6244
23 0.6152 Tulane 8-4 CUSA 0.667 0.5978 0.5985
24 0.6145 Kentucky 11-0 SEC 1.000 0.4023 0.6534
25 0.6143 San Diego 12-7 WCC 0.632 0.6525 0.5208
26 0.6092 Troy 9-5 SBC 0.643 0.6393 0.5152
27 0.6076 Oklahoma 8-4 B12 0.667 0.6304 0.5031
28 0.6058 Brigham Young 8-3 MW 0.727 0.6268 0.4425
29 0.6029 Maryland 9-2 ACC 0.818 0.4936 0.6062
30 0.6028 Georgia 4-6 SEC 0.400 0.7693 0.4726
31 0.6027 Kansas State 9-1 B12 0.900 0.4747 0.5613
32 0.6009 Michigan 5-2 B10 0.714 0.5668 0.5555
33 0.6002 Missouri 7-5 B12 0.583 0.6982 0.4209
34 0.5998 Pepperdine 12-4 WCC 0.750 0.5536 0.5421
35 0.5973 Stanford 9-5 P10 0.643 0.6088 0.5287
36 0.5970 Lafayette 2-2 Pat 0.500 0.7350 0.4181
37 0.5957 Coastal Carolina 11-2 BigS 0.846 0.5146 0.5076
38 0.5917 Boston College 1-3 ACC 0.250 0.8544 0.4082
39 0.5891 Penn State 2-4 B10 0.333 0.7806 0.4619
40 0.5882 Louisiana State 7-6 SEC 0.538 0.6361 0.5420
41 0.5865 Vanderbilt 13-0 SEC 1.000 0.3404 0.6651
42 0.5851 Evansville 6-4 MVC 0.600 0.6117 0.5169
43 0.5839 Indiana 2-3 B10 0.400 0.6872 0.5609
44 0.5838 Arizona 13-4 P10 0.765 0.4937 0.5831
45 0.5831 UC Riverside 10-6 BigW 0.625 0.5854 0.5366
46 0.5822 South Florida 9-3 BigE 0.750 0.5119 0.5549
47 0.5795 Southeastern Louisiana 10-4 SLC 0.714 0.5614 0.4809
48 0.5794 Nebraska 5-2 B12 0.714 0.5216 0.5604
49 0.5782 Wake Forest 7-3 ACC 0.700 0.5127 0.5873
50 0.5775 Clemson 7-2 ACC 0.778 0.4783 0.5758