Season long look at UL's trek through the Baseball RPI rankings

[CajunProud]

It is OK to disagree. But I think that unequivocally stating that "we belong in the Top 25" requires you to know something about and examine the teams in the Top 25 that you think the Cajuns should displace. You would also need to examine some of the teams in the vicinity of the Top 25 that also did not make the cut (and make the comparison to the Cajuns).

I am not trying to pick on you here, but since you posed the question, allow me to turn it around on you. How many of those teams have you seen play this season? How much do you know about them?

Now, I will say that I do not think the Cajuns are far away. But I do think it is nonsense to think that it is obvious the Cajuns should be in the Top 25. There are some very good teams in the 20 -> 30 range in all of the polls that are not far away from one another.

As far as some of the teams with 7 -> 10 losses are concerned, the answer is that their caliber of schedule far exceeds that of the Cajuns. Let's take Long Beach State for example. The Dirtbags are a non-inspiring 13-9. But when you look at their schedule and the teams they have beaten, you tend to cringe.

LBSU ...
- took 2/3 vs. Southern California with two of the games on the road
- took 2/3 vs. Texas
- took 1/3 at Rice
- took 2/3 at Arizona State
- took 1/3 at Wichita State
- took 1/3 vs. Cal State-Fullerton
- 2-0 vs. UCLA
- 2-0 vs. California

That is their entire schedule thus far! Do you see any patsies in that schedule? It is downright brutal and the wins they have registered are impressive. LBSU is playing .500 ball against the Top 25 and is over .500 against the RPI Top 25. This means they squarely belong in the Top 25 and in my opinion, are actually underrated. Normally, a .500 record against the Top 25 (especially with most of the games on the road) would mean that you should be ranked well into the Top 25, assuming the games are normally distributed over the rankings.

Long Beach State being in the Top 25 with nine losses is a no-brainer. But only after you examine their schedule.

Brian

Point very well taken Brian. Like I said, I enjoy and respect your opinion and analysis.

However, I guess my point is, the rankings are very much subjective and how can someone truly compare teams and the teams that they are playing if they have not seen them play? The Cajuns RPI is in the top 20 and has been since day one, except for the week when they beat McNeese twice. So obviously, that says something about who they have played and beat.

I also think, there is a natural bias, for whatever reason, in favor of the West Coast and SEC. I went on line and looked at Kentucky's schedule. Other than Arkansas and LSU (who is having a very down year), they have played NO ONE, and they struggled to beat LSU in the Saturday game and tied in the third (rediculous to have a tie in baseball).

You are also correct in that I have not seen any of the other teams play, but as a former collegiate athlete and baseball player, I know talent when I see it, and this Cajun team has the most since the 1999 and 2000 teams.

You may be correct and then again, I may be correct and we may both be totally off base (I'm probably more off base than you are ). It just makes me mad when we receive no respect from the national media, especially since we have been a very successful baseball program, even before Coach Robe arrived. Everybody likes to talk about South Alabama, but all I seem to remember is that they choke whenevery they get to the regionals.

Anyway, thank you for your analysis and opinions, and keep them coming.

[GoneGolfin]

Point very well taken Brian. Like I said, I enjoy and respect your opinion and analysis.

However, I guess my point is, the rankings are very much subjective and how can someone truly compare teams and the teams that they are playing if they have not seen them play?

Thanks for the kind words (as you always provide). I understand the point you are trying to make.

Rankings are not just "very much" subjective but *are entirely* subjective. But if it were a requirement that everyone see every team play (and how many times?), you would not have rankings. This is simply not feasible. By your own criteria, you have no justification for the Cajuns being in the Top 25. How many teams have you seen play in your, say, Top 40? And how many times have you seen those teams play? I have only seen about half of those teams play thus far this season. And I watch a lot of college ball. Incidentally, I also listen to a larger number of teams. Some other writers also take this approach.

The bottom line is that the analysis of raw results must play a large part in assessing the realtive strength of a team. You can then analyze these results against teams you have seen play, in order to form an opinion. This is necessary because you cannot see every team play every game.

The Cajuns RPI is in the top 20 and has been since day one, except for the week when they beat McNeese twice. So obviously, that says something about who they have played and beat.

Day one for the RPI has not even begun. Just because it is published does not mean it is a useful tool yet. We have talked about this in the past.

The RPI is still a poor measuring stick. Do not forget what the RPI really is. The RPI is primarily (75%) the strength of your schedule. By using the RPI as an argument, you just contradicted your earlier assertion concerning Long Beach State being in the Top 25. LBSU is #2 in the latest SEBaseball Adjusted RPI (#3 in Base RPI). Why are they this high? Because of their SOS.

I also think, there is a natural bias, for whatever reason, in favor of the West Coast and SEC. I went on line and looked at Kentucky's schedule. Other than Arkansas and LSU (who is having a very down year), they have played NO ONE, and they struggled to beat LSU in the Saturday game and tied in the third (rediculous to have a tie in baseball).

I believe that there is some bias w/respect to the larger schools. I would not confine it to the West and SEC. But I do not think the bias is that strong overall. I do think that the rankings by the West are correct at this point. I think you get less bias in some of the writer polls (other than BA and CB). I think that the real bias with BA is not the big school syndrome, but the projection of professional talent tunnel vision (POPTTV - OK, I made up that acronym).

As for Kentucky, I was hard on Kentucky this season for playing such a weak schedule. But the Wildcats are 3-2-1 against Arkansas and LSU. Not bad. LSU did not take a single game this past weekend. Kentucky did better against LSU on the road than South Carolina did against LSU at home. And Kentucky *did not* struggle to beat LSU on Friday night (winning 16-2). LSU may be having a down year, but they are not a bad team. They are still in the running for an NCAA bid. Remember that this LSU team also took 2/3 from Southern Mississippi.

I may or may not have Kentucky in the Top 25. But I have not seen anything yet that makes UL an obvious pick over Kentucky. The Cajuns have not played many top teams either (actually, fewer than Kentucky). They will get a chance to prove themselves at ASU.

You are also correct in that I have not seen any of the other teams play, but as a former collegiate athlete and baseball player, I know talent when I see it, and this Cajun team has the most since the 1999 and 2000 teams.

That alone does not mean Top 25. This is entirely subjective and I am not convinced this is the case. The 2002 team *may* have been better and they were not a consensus Top 25 team. Besides, this is a different year entirely. In other words, the benchmark is different. You can have a Top 15 team one year that would not be a Top 25 in another.

What we have to go on thus far is performance to this point. Based on that, I see a few more than 25 teams ahead of the Cajuns. If the Cajuns go 4-0 this week, depending on what happens to some of the other teams, that could change.

Keep supporting the Cajuns!

Brian

[CajunProud]

Thanks for the kind words (as you always provide). I understand the point you are trying to make.

Rankings are not just "very much" subjective but *are entirely* subjective. But if it were a requirement that everyone see every team play (and how many times?), you would not have rankings. This is simply not feasible. By your own criteria, you have no justification for the Cajuns being in the Top 25. How many teams have you seen play in your, say, Top 40? And how many times have you seen those teams play? I have only seen about half of those teams play thus far this season. And I watch a lot of college ball. Incidentally, I also listen to a larger number of teams. Some other writers also take this approach.

The bottom line is that the analysis of raw results must play a large part in assessing the realtive strength of a team. You can then analyze these results against teams you have seen play, in order to form an opinion. This is necessary because you cannot see every team play every game.


Day one for the RPI has not even begun. Just because it is published does not mean it is a useful tool yet. We have talked about this in the past.

The RPI is still a poor measuring stick. Do not forget what the RPI really is. The RPI is primarily (75%) the strength of your schedule. By using the RPI as an argument, you just contradicted your earlier assertion concerning Long Beach State being in the Top 25. LBSU is #2 in the latest SEBaseball Adjusted RPI (#3 in Base RPI). Why are they this high? Because of their SOS.


I believe that there is some bias w/respect to the larger schools. I would not confine it to the West and SEC. But I do not think the bias is that strong overall. I do think that the rankings by the West are correct at this point. I think you get less bias in some of the writer polls (other than BA and CB). I think that the real bias with BA is not the big school syndrome, but the projection of professional talent tunnel vision (POPTTV - OK, I made up that acronym).

As for Kentucky, I was hard on Kentucky this season for playing such a weak schedule. But the Wildcats are 3-2-1 against Arkansas and LSU. Not bad. LSU did not take a single game this past weekend. Kentucky did better against LSU on the road than South Carolina did against LSU at home. And Kentucky *did not* struggle to beat LSU on Friday night (winning 16-2). LSU may be having a down year, but they are not a bad team. They are still in the running for an NCAA bid. Remember that this LSU team also took 2/3 from Southern Mississippi.

I may or may not have Kentucky in the Top 25. But I have not seen anything yet that makes UL an obvious pick over Kentucky. The Cajuns have not played many top teams either (actually, fewer than Kentucky). They will get a chance to prove themselves at ASU.


That alone does not mean Top 25. This is entirely subjective and I am not convinced this is the case. The 2002 team *may* have been better and they were not a consensus Top 25 team. Besides, this is a different year entirely. In other words, the benchmark is different. You can have a Top 15 team one year that would not be a Top 25 in another.

What we have to go on thus far is performance to this point. Based on that, I see a few more than 25 teams ahead of the Cajuns. If the Cajuns go 4-0 this week, depending on what happens to some of the other teams, that could change.

Keep supporting the Cajuns!

Brian

Thanks Brian for setting me straight

I still think we are top 25 though

[Dad04]

A poll ranking and $4 gets you a cup of coffee at Starbucks. TCB in a Regional is what gets this team up in the morning...getting there one pitch at a time. They have to believe they are the best team on the field, that day.

[Cajun Express]

Gone Golfin, tell me what happens if the Cajuns take two or more at ASU in Tempe, beat Tulane, and continue to win near 80% of their games. Are there not sixteen regionals now? I would think not being given a regional would and should be unthinkable.

My unthinkable almost always start with a dream of a perfect season.

[GoneGolfin]

Gone Golfin, tell me what happens if the Cajuns take two or more at ASU in Tempe, beat Tulane, and continue to win near 80% of their games. Are there not sixteen regionals now? I would think not being given a regional would and should be unthinkable.

My unthinkable almost always start with a dream of a perfect season.

I would turn it around and say that hosting a regional is certainly not unthinkable. But it would be difficult, even in the scenario that you describe.

First, the media and press box facilities at Moore Field will hurt the Cajuns' chances. There are so many nice new and renovated ballparks around in 2007 that were not in 2000. But facilities questions aside ...

UL will face stiff competition from the state of Texas. I see Rice, Texas, and maybe Texas A&M hosting. Two of those schools could easily be national seeds. If the season ended today, all three would be hosting.

The West will also pose some problems. I see the West being awarded at least four host regionals, with the possibility of five. Last season the West only hosted three. Pat Murphy of Arizona State replaces Mike Gaski of North Carolina-Wilmington on the NCAA Selection Committee this season. Thus, there will be a stronger lobby for western regionals (and rightfully so). If the season ended today I believe that Oregon State, Pepperdine, and at least two of Cal State-Fullerton, Long Beach State, Arizona State, and San Diego would host.

Other "nearby" regional possibilities (excluding Tulane for now) include Arkansas (possible national seed) and Mississippi. I think the SEC gets four regionals. Vanderbilt and South Carolina are cinches.

Ohio State and Minnesota are playing well and are excellent possibilities to host a northern regional. Wichita State has an excellent shot as well. Nebraska will be in the running. Oklahoma State and Oklahoma will aggressively bid and will be in the running.

In the ACC, Florida State, North Carolina, and Virginia look like locks. The ACC has a good chance of landing four regionals. Clemson or NC State could be the fourth.

So, when you add up the numbers and only grant the West four regionals, it does not look good ...

Here is a trial guestimate ...
Vanderbilt
South Carolina
Arkansas
Mississippi
Florida State
North Carolina
Virginia
Ohio State/Minnesota
Wichita State
Rice
Texas
Texas A&M
Oregon State
Pepperdine
Cal State-Fullerton/Long Beach State
San Diego/Arizona State

Missing from the above list are ... Nebraska, Clemson, NC State, Tulane, Coastal Carolina, East Carolina, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Southern Mississippi, and Louisiana. This is not an exhaustive list of candidates, but illustrates how difficult it will be.

Impossible? No. But this will be a very big hill to climb. It may take a top 10 RPI (it is very different than 2000). If the NCAA thinks the Cajuns are a #1 seed, they have a chance (this is where facilities and bid amount will come in). The best thing the Cajuns can do is keep winning. The rest will take care of itself.

And yes, it is fun to think about. :-)

Brian

[DestinCajun]

Gone Golfin, tell me what happens if the Cajuns take two or more at ASU in Tempe, beat Tulane, and continue to win near 80% of their games. Are there not sixteen regionals now? I would think not being given a regional would and should be unthinkable.

My unthinkable almost always start with a dream of a perfect season.

Thanks!

[jay bee]

First, the media and press box facilities at Moore Field will hurt the Cajuns' chances...

Are facilities that big of a factor? Wasn't there a regional site in the past few years that did not lights so games could not be played late?

Our attendance seems to be up this year--could that be a factor? If Baton Rouge and New Orleans are not regional sites, do our changes increase?

Anyway it goes, our best chances of hosting or participating in post-season play is continuing to win, right?

[ulforlife]

Gone Golfin, tell me what happens if the Cajuns take two or more at ASU in Tempe, beat Tulane, and continue to win near 80% of their games. Are there not sixteen regionals now? I would think not being given a regional would and should be unthinkable.

My unthinkable almost always start with a dream of a perfect season.

Why don't y'all stop thinking about regionals and start thinking about the cajuns giving up 9 runs in the 5th and blowing a 6 run lead...

[Mineshaft]

Why don't y'all stop thinking about regionals and start thinking about the cajuns giving up 9 runs in the 5th and blowing a 6 run lead...

Exactly......

[Cajunsmike]

Exactly......

I guarantee not one player or coach at FIU was thinking about a regional, they were just figuring out how to stop the bleeding. Bullpen has it's first bad day of the season. Every unit of every squad has them at least a couple of times a year. A few of those hits in the big FIU inning had eyes that found holes. The team had it's head in the right place. What fans think has little impact.

[DestinCajun]

Why don't y'all stop thinking about regionals and start thinking about the cajuns giving up 9 runs in the 5th and blowing a 6 run lead...

Because a lot goes into being selected as a regional host and the main question here is whether the Cajuns have a snowball's chance in hell of hosting IF they deserve it at the end of the season. You have to be kidding if you think this talk changes the score of today's game.